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February 19, 2014

BP Unfiltered

2013 32 Predictions Contest Results

by Sky Kalkman

The number have finally been crunched on the 2013 32 Predictions contest. Five entrants tied with 26 points, but with the earliest entry, Vitaly Vinar wins the tie-breaker. Congrats! Full results can be found here.

Now for a little meta-analysis. The average score was 18.9. A few ballots included a significant number of no-answers, but even removing those doesn’t move the needle much. So congratulations team, we were an average of three answers better than a fair coin. I’m not not being sarcastic, as I think that might be the best we’ve ever done. Looks pretty much like a bell-shaped curve, although 19 correct answers was slightly less common than 18 or 19.

The favorite won 20 out of 32 times (highlighted in green below), but the biggest favorite went down, thanks to Carlos Beltran out-healthying Bryce Harper. A whopping four predictions were ties (highlighted in a lighter green), which is really exciting for me. (I basically just root for ties.) Two were somewhat likely, but Mariano Rivera tying Jeff Francoeur in walks was awesome, and James Shields’ wins tying Wil Myers’ home runs was even better, as it was the closest question in voting, with a difference of just five votes. There were a few near misses, too, such as Baseball Prospectus Top 101 pitching prospects who got into a game outnumbering BP 101 hitting prospects by just one, Stephen Strasburg garnering only five more strikeouts than Pedro Alvarez, Carlos Santana playing just two more games than Justin Morneau, Anthony Rizzo out-TAv’ing Yonder Alonso by .02 points, and Scott Kazmir pitching only seven more innings than Roberto Hernandez.

Finally, congratulation to Ben, who whooped me 21 to 17, just as two-thirds of you predicted. I’ll get you next year, Lindbergh!

We'll be running this contest again in 2014, so if you have suggestions for questions, please leave them below.

Sky Kalkman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sky's other articles. You can contact Sky by clicking here

Related Content:  Predictions

20 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

dianagram

Derek Jeter's OBP or Derek Jeter's plate appearances

Feb 19, 2014 10:46 AM
rating: 1
 
Brian Oakchunas

WARP of Darvish and Feliz or WARP of all other Rangers' pitchers

Feb 19, 2014 11:16 AM
rating: 0
 
Brian Oakchunas

PA by Ryan Howard or PA by Brendan Ryan

Feb 19, 2014 11:26 AM
rating: 1
 
danrnelson

K/9 for Jarrod Parker (6.12 in 2013) or K/9 of Twins pitching staff (6.11 in 2013)

Feb 19, 2014 12:52 PM
rating: 0
 
lipitorkid

I'm going to assume these need to be fairly easy to measure right. You don't want stuff like Mike Sciocia caught smiling on camera during a game vs. number of times Mike Trout gets thrown out of a game right?

Feb 19, 2014 16:56 PM
rating: 0
 
Sky Kalkman

Correct. If I can look them up after the season at a reputable website, we're good.

Feb 20, 2014 07:06 AM
rating: 0
 
slimandslam

Most wins for any one team or losses for the Astros

Feb 19, 2014 18:46 PM
rating: 2
 
slimandslam

(Sac hits total for the team with the fewest) or (number of times players reach on catcher's interference)

Feb 19, 2014 18:54 PM
rating: 0
 
slimandslam

Most SB by any one player or Most XBH by any one player

Feb 19, 2014 19:05 PM
rating: 0
 
slimandslam

Total number of minutes of Effectively Wild podcasts April thru September, or total number of minutes of all other BP podcasts April thru September

...okay, I'll stop.

Feb 19, 2014 19:12 PM
rating: 0
 
AJ

Was 2 off of tying for the lead. Damn!

Feb 19, 2014 23:07 PM
rating: 0
 
NYYanks826

Somebody got 1 out of 32 right?

Feb 20, 2014 09:21 AM
rating: 0
 
dianagram

Either they only answered 1 question ... or it was Harold Reynolds.

Feb 20, 2014 09:27 AM
rating: 2
 
davinhbrown

increase in ERA and WHIP for AJ Burnett...

or errors by Clint Barmes.
[who is now a bench player but saved AJ a ton last year]

Feb 20, 2014 16:50 PM
rating: 0
 
navarra

Wow, I really won something! Too bad there weren't some prizes :)

Feb 21, 2014 04:45 AM
rating: 0
 
Sky Kalkman

Hey, first place wins a year of Premium! That's nothing to sneeze at.

Feb 21, 2014 06:36 AM
rating: 2
 
navarra

Really? Wow, I didn't knew that, that's great!

Feb 21, 2014 08:47 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Your prize is in the mail.

Feb 21, 2014 10:02 AM
 
navarra

Yes, already saw it. Thanks, I'm very excited! In Ukraine $35 aren't pennies, particularly now.

Feb 21, 2014 11:23 AM
rating: 5
 
crunchyfrog

Largest payroll at the end of the season....
Astros or Yankees DL...

Feb 21, 2014 07:49 AM
rating: 3
 
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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/18)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: T-Mac's... (02/12)
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BP Unfiltered: The Gre... (02/20)
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Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/19)

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