CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/18)
<< Previous Column
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (02/18)
Next Column >>
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (02/20)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/19)

February 19, 2014

BP Daily Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 389: 2014 Season Preview Series: Pittsburgh Pirates

by Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller and Nick Wheatley-Schaller


Ben and Sam preview the Pirates' season with Michael Clair, and Nick talks to Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Pirates reporter Travis Sawchik (at 27:45).

Download Here (42 MB; 46:10)
RSS Feed
iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
Facebook Group
Email Us podcast@baseballprospectus.com
Sponsor Us

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here
Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here
Nick Wheatley-Schaller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Nick's other articles. You can contact Nick by clicking here

Related Content:  Pittsburgh Pirates

2 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

BillJohnson

Wow. So they really do expect ultra-regression. I'm shocked. I would have expected a post-regression Pittsburgh to be a middle-of-the-pack team, not a bottom-ten bunch. There are just too many other teams in baseball that really aren't very good.

Feb 19, 2014 06:40 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Nick W. Schaller
BP staff

I think the biggest issue is that they have so many guys expected to regress negatively but nobody who really had a down year and has room to bounce back.

Going by 2013 WARP-Projected 2014 WARP:

McCutchen: -2 Wins
Alvarez: -2.1 Wins
Marte: -0.9 Wins
Martin: -1.1 Wins
Walker: -0.6 Wins
Mercer: +0.4 Wins
Liriano: -0.7 Wins
Melancon: -0.7 Wins

So -7.7 Wins from those guys regressing, then another -1.6 for losing Burnett, and you're at -9.3. They won 94 games last year, but only 88 games by Pythagorean record, so if you subtract the 9 wins from that they are at 79 wins, close to PECOTA's 78.

Feb 19, 2014 18:23 PM
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (02/18)
<< Previous Column
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (02/18)
Next Column >>
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (02/20)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/19)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Beating the Shift
Premium Article What You Need to Know: No Way
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 5...
The Lineup Card: Eight Things We Learned in ...
Premium Article Some Projection Left: Scouting the Slow Star...
BP Ballpark Night
BP Ballpark Night

MORE FROM FEBRUARY 19, 2014
Top Tools: Best Hit/Power
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Orioles Embrace Ubaldo...
The Lineup Card: Eight Players We Expect to ...
Painting the Black: Cash/Rizz Everything Aro...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Chris Capuano, Free Agent of ...
Fantasy Article Get to Know: Outfield Prospects
Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Projections: Outfielders

MORE BY BEN LINDBERGH
2014-02-21 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-20 - Premium Article Overthinking It: Last Season in Selective Ag...
2014-02-20 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-19 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-18 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: What We Would Say Abou...
2014-02-18 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-17 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
More...

MORE BP DAILY PODCAST
2014-02-24 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-21 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-20 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-19 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-18 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-17 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2014-02-14 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2014-03-28 - BP Daily Podcast: The 2014 Team Preview Podc...