For the previous installments in this series, click the links below:
- Three-Year Projections: Catcher
- Three-Year Projections: First Base
- Three-Year Projections: Second Base
- Three-Year Projections: Shortstop
- Three-Year Projections: Third Base
First things first: There are legitimately 125 or so names that could reasonably fit into this ranking of 90 outfielders over the next three years, so if there is an omission, know that it was likely considered and likely ignored for arbitrary and capricious reasons. Also note that unlike previous lists, not every player will be addressed, even within the groupings that appear to have formed. Ranking 90 players precluded that, but if you have a question about someone specific, feel free to drop a comment and I’ll let you know what I was thinking.
Outfield has long been a bastion of depth, but it thins out relatively quickly and while there are some impact prospects on the way, the question is whether they’ll hit quickly enough to fill the void.
- 1. Mike Trout
No surprises here.
- 2. Andrew McCutchen
- 3. Bryce Harper
- 4. Ryan Braun
- 5. Carlos Gonzalez
- 6. Giancarlo Stanton
A strong grouping and I can’t say I wasn’t tempted to put Harper at the two spot. Given the immediacy of the three-year rankings though, it’s hard to give him the edge over a fully developed and producing McCutchen. If it’s not clear, I think Braun bounces back with little to no decline.
- 7. Jacoby Ellsbury
- 8. Yasiel Puig
- 9. Wil Myers
- 10. Carlos Gomez
- 11. Adam Jones
- 12. Justin Upton
Ellsbury may never hit 30 home runs again, but he doesn’t need to. Myers is the real deal, and he’ll hit for average and power. Upton has a chance to make this ranking look foolish in multiple ways.
- 13. Jason Heyward
- 14. Shin-Soo Choo
The question about Choo is when the regression hits. The platoon numbers are concerning, but he’s a monster at getting on base, in a favorable ballpark, and hitting atop a dynamic lineup.
2014 should tell us everything we need to know about Kemp. Until we find out though, I believe he can be productive when healthy.
- 17. Yoenis Cespedes
- 18. Allen Craig
- 19. Matt Holliday
- 20. Hunter Pence
- 21. Alex Rios
- 22. Alex Gordon
A healthy dose of downside among this group by year three, but 2014 is most important, and outfield gets thin in a hurry.
- 23. Carlos Beltran
It’s an open question how long Beltran is effective, and while 2016 might be especially ugly, his talent and the new Yankee Stadium should give us at least two good years, especially with some appearances at DH mixed in.
- 24. Jose Bautista
- 25. Billy Hamilton
The bane of most any ranker’s existence. Hamilton was up to 10 spots higher and 25 spots lower. He’ll dominate one, if not two, categories and has the potential for negative impact in the other three.
- 26. Starling Marte
- 27. Austin Jackson
- 28. Desmond Jennings
- 29. Mark Trumbo
I’m on record as believing Trumbo can go for 40 homers in Arizona. The question is, what else can he do for you?
- 30. Curtis Granderson
- 31. Jayson Werth
- 32. Domonic Brown
- 33. Nelson Cruz
- 34. Oswaldo Arcia
While 2014 is the most important, Werth’s age and questionable health play a significant factor in this ranking. Arcia could be a force in the middle of a lineup as soon as this year. He’s not a top-20-type option, but 20-25 home runs without being a drag on batting average has its place. His lineup could improve significantly around him come 2015-16.
- 35. Adam Eaton
- 36. Dexter Fowler
- 37. Josh Hamilton
- 38. Will Venable
Venable is a sneaky 31 years old in 2014, and were this a dynasty ranking, he’d drop a bit. He should be around 20/20 in the next three seasons, though, and in a weak outfield class, that’s valuable.
- 39. George Springer
Springer could arrive as soon as early this year and isn’t quite the boom or bust fantasy prospect he’s been cut out to be. It could be a disaster on the scale of Jaden Smith’s twitter account, but the reality is that Springer’s power and speed should be able to carry him despite an unattractive contact rate. B.J. Upton carried value with the same characteristics for years. The upside is that he adds a respectable average to those carrying tools, making him a top-40 player, rather than outfielder.
- 40. Leonys Martin
- 41. Andre Ethier
- 42. Brett Gardner
- 43. Christian Yelich
Yelich is going to hit and hit soon. How much he’ll add around that is the key to his fantasy value, and given his tender age it’s unlikely the power comes soon, which shouldn’t’ be confused with implying it won’t come at all. Sometimes three years just isn’t as many as you want it to be.
- 44. Carl Crawford
- 45. Coco Crisp
- 46. Shane Victorino
Fun fact: I have thought Shane Victorino was 36 for each of the past three years.
- 47. Michael Cuddyer
- 48. Avisail Garcia
- 49. Michael Brantley
- 50. Khris Davis
- 51. Norichika Aoki
You’ll not find a bigger fan of Aoki than I, but at 31 years old and with a game that relies heavily on contact rate and stolen bases, there’s significant downside potential here. Aoki’s fantasy value comes from being solid pretty much everywhere and a plus in speed. He’s not a burner though, so if the speed starts to slip, the value could go quickly.
- 52. B.J. Upton
- 53. Oscar Taveras
I love prospects almost as much as a Kardashian loves a spotlight. Almost. Still, it’s necessary to reign in the prospect love at times. Taveras has a crowded field to work through and an organization that has built itself on patience. There’s also that fact that most prospects don’t hit immediately. Taveras is going to be a monster, but if that first monster year happens in 2016, how much is it worth today?
- 54. Colby Rasmus
- 55. Gregory Polanco
- 56. Nick Markakis
- 57. Michael Bourn
- 58. Byron Buxton
Buxton and Polanco are hot items, and with good reason. The fact remains though, we’re unlikely to see Buxton in 2014, and while Polanco might reach the majors, we can’t assume every rookie will hit like a Harper or Myers.
- 59. Matt Joyce
- 60. Michael Saunders
Saunders was worse than a post-2006 Adam Sandler movie last year but he is only one season removed from going 19/21. That power/speed combo comes with a bad average and deplorable OBP, but an improved lineup should help with contextual stats.
- 61. Josh Reddick
- 62. Lorenzo Cain
- 63. Michael Choice
- 64. Corey Dickerson
- 65. Marlon Byrd
- 66. Alejandro De Aza
- 67. Gerardo Parra
- 68. Denard Span
- 69. Brandon Moss
Moss deserves better company on this list, but he is no lock to accrue the necessary starts to get outfield eligibility for 2015-16.
- 70. Torii Hunter
- 71. Jackie Bradley, Jr
Ever the example of a prospect who is better in real life than fantasy, that doesn’t mean Bradley has no value. He’s going to be in the majors this year, and he should be solid from the get-go.
- 72. Cody Ross
- 73. Cesar Puello
- 74. Corey Hart
- 75. Chris Carter
- 76. Cameron Maybin
- 77. Charlie Blackmon
- 78. Josh Willingham
- 79. Rymer Liriano
- 80. Dustin Ackley
- 81. Marcell Ozuna
- 82. Melky Cabrera
- 83. Ben Revere
- 84. Daniel Nava
- 85. Rajai Davis
- 86. Delino DeShields, Jr.
DeShields is the boom-or-bust Astros prospect that people think Springer is. He has some work ethic questions, but there’s no question as to his speed. He reached triple digits in stolen bases in 2012, and has the potential to put up 50-plus in the minors with some solid pop (5-10 home runs).
- 87. Angel Pagan
- 88. Stephen Piscotty
- 89. Robbie Grossman
- 90. Kyle Parker
Piscotty lacks the tools that everyone loves to drool over but he can straight up hit, and is going to be the next in the recent line of Cardinals draftees who hit so much they make themselves valuable.
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
Marte is conservative, I admit. I'm not a true believer just yet, which could explain the dissonance in our perspectives on him. I think he'll struggle to get on base as much in the future, which will impact his SB. I'll recant if he repeats in 2014 but I think we see some regression.
Myers likely won't hit for the same power as Bruce, but he doesn't have to to be more valuable. I think he'll swipe more bases - at least early on and that while his BABIP is unsustainable, he produced inflated BABIPs in the minors and can offset some of that loss by making more contact.
Bruce is extremely good, certainly and I don't mean to diminish his quality by promoting Myers'. I just believe in the skill set.
with the ever diminishing long ball how much value is there in that that? Also no Reddick bounce back?... damn. thanks.
Reddick is on the list at #61. If you mean that to reflect no bounce back... I think it's going to be a struggle for him to be anything more than a solid power, low average option. Similar to Carter but less faith in the power numbers. He's part of a crowded outfield and playing time concerns are a factor as well.