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February 18, 2014

Transaction Analysis

What We Would Say About a Homer Bailey Extension

by Sam Miller


CINCINNATI REDS
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Cincinnati Reds
Reportedly close to an extension with RHP Homer Bailey for six years, $100 million.

One month ago, Walt Jocketty admitted that it would be difficult to lock up Homer Bailey to an extension: “He would be probably the one guy that’s going to be the most difficult because of how well he’s done and where he’s at in this service class.” Five days later, Ken Rosenthal reported that “Three times this offseason—from three different sources—I heard that Reds right-hander Homer Bailey wanted out of Cincinnati.” Bailey denied it, but no matter how much he likes chili on his spaghetti, a 9-X system of electing city council members, and the nation’s second-best libraries, an extension seemed unlikely this close to his free agency. The leverage was all his. And yet, here we are, and the Reds have achieved a pretty good deal.

Ben Lindbergh is fond of noting when pitchers sign long deals that the unpredictability and uncertainty of pitchers’ arms makes for a lot of repetitive caveating. Sure, Bailey is good, but little of what we know about him helps us project the state of his shoulder and elbow five years from now. It’s difficult to analyze a pitcher’s future based on his present. But no less challenging is analyzing the pitcher’s present based on his past.

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Related Content:  Cincinnati Reds,  Homer Bailey

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