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In December of 2011, shortly after the Rangers submitted a winning $51.7 bid for exclusive rights to talk to Yu Darvish, then-BP prospect writer Kevin Goldstein surveyed 10 industry insiders to see how good they thought Darvish was going to be. Instead of asking for physical comps or statistical projections, Kevin stacked Darvish up against a selection of five other right-handed starters and asked for each insider’s one-on-one pitcher preference. In retrospect, some of the responses seem silly—three people took Ian Kennedy over Darvish—but the consensus wasn’t far from the mark: Darvish, the insiders said, would be worse than Justin Verlander, roughly as good as Zack Greinke, better than Matt Garza and Kennedy, and much better than Ricky Nolasco. Sounds about right.

Last week, the Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka, the best Japanese starter to cross the Pacific since Darvish, to a seven year, $155 million deal (plus posting fee, luxury tax, and the priced-in expense of the opt-out clause) that will make him one of baseball’s 10 highest-paid players in 2014. The next question, naturally, is, “How good is the guy they just got?”

Internet opinions about Tanaka’s ultimate role span the starting rotation, so in an attempt to pinpoint a realistic role, I asked the industry, polling a range of team employees from international scouts to statistical analysts to scouting directors to assistant GMs. Some of the sources work for teams that were reported to be finalists for Tanaka, while others come from clubs that were never tied to him. Some have seen Tanaka pitch in person; others have only watched video, seen stats, and read reports. All were asked to pick pitchers based on expected 2014 performance only, with no consideration given to salary.

I received 12 responses from 11 teams, which I’ve summarized and excerpted below. And since hundreds of you responded to my request for votes from BP readers, we can also compare the insiders to the crowd.

***

Trevor Cahill
Resume:
League-average innings eater with a 100 ERA+ from 2011-13. Hit by a batted ball last August, which cost him a run at a third straight 200-inning season. More of a pitch-to-contact groundball guy than a bat-misser.
PECOTA Projection: 159 2/3 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 55.8 GB%, 0.96 HR/9
The Industry Vote: Tanaka, 13-0
The Reader Vote: Tanaka, 93%

Including Cahill was the equivalent of the calibration question at the beginning of a lie-detector test. By asking you to recite your name and address, a polygraph operator can (theoretically) establish what it looks like when you’re telling the truth. By asking the insiders the Tanaka-Cahill question, we can confirm how deep they think the downside risk goes.

Cahill projects to be almost exactly a league-average starter—PECOTA gives him a 4.00 ERA, compared to a league baseline of 3.95—and the insiders were unanimous in their belief that Tanaka would be better than that (though the readers weren’t).

“Much better impact across the board,” one NL exec said of Tanaka. “I’ve never felt Cahill was a difference maker.”

“Cahill has been very average in the last three seasons and has also lost some durability,” one international scout said.

“You might say this would be Tanaka’s floor,” said another.

Justin Masterson
Resume:
Death on righties, vulnerable to lefties, and tough on the running game. Has never been on the disabled list.
PECOTA Projection: 186 IP, 3.95 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 56.6 GB%, 0.73 HR/9
The Industry Vote: Tanaka, 10-3
The Reader Vote: Tanaka, 75%

In the Masterson matchup, Tanaka’s support started to slip, but he retained a strong majority, with one respondent suggesting that he “has a better chance of leading his staff and dominating a game” and another calling him “more creative than Masterson,” a quality that could help him “handle more versatile hitters.”

Although one pro scouting director pegged him as the second-best starter on my list of five and an AGM gave him the edge because he added strikeouts without sacrificing grounders last season, Masterson’s inconsistency over the three-year period from 2011-13, in which (like Cahill) he posted an ERA+ of 100 (with a high of 122 and a low of 79), made him less appealing to others.

“I have concerns about Masterson’s success last year being the result of his drastically increased slider usage,” said one Tanaka supporter. “Both injury and hitter adjustments are on the table for 2014.” Another scouting exec expressed similar reservations. "I don't love or trust the way Masterson does it," he said.

“Hefty expectations, but Masterson’s 2011 [216 innings, 3.21 ERA, 4.0 WARP) is what I would expect from Tanaka…maybe 10 fewer IP,” an AL scout said. “Masterson himself has never approached those levels again and remains too vulnerable to platoon splits.”

Another scout who gave Tanaka a slight edge noted that while both pitchers may be somewhat dependent on their defense, the rookie starter should expect less assistance. “Can't underrate how bad the Yankees infield defense might be in 2014 and what effect that might have on Tanaka's line,” he said.

Homer Bailey
Resume:
Former first-rounder who took the scenic route to a 2013 career year in which he added velocity and strikeouts and began to fulfill his top-prospect promise.
PECOTA Projection: 174 IP, 3.62 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 44.4 GB%, 1.03 HR/9
The Industry Vote: Tanaka, 8-5
The Reader Vote: Tanaka, 56%

And now we come to the closest showdown. After taking one step closer to the top of the rotation, Tanaka lost only one supporter, but even the insiders still on his side suggested that the competition was tight. “My guess is Bailey met his potential the last two seasons, and Tanaka has a better chance of output beyond Bailey’s 2013,” one NL front-office type said.

An NL exec agreed, leaning toward Bailey (who like Tanaka has a strong splitter) because of “higher-end stuff…and a better bet for longevity of being good.”

The Bailey voters in the group believed that the stats should be similar but marked down Tanaka due to the greater uncertainty that surrounds him. “[Bailey has] already learned to pitch effectively in MLB,” one scout said, “whereas with Tanaka there will be a learning curve in 2014.”

Mat Latos
Resume:
Workhorse with improving control who pitched through injury late last season but still topped 200 innings for the second straight year.
PECOTA Projection: 189 IP, 3.15 ERA, 8.3 K.9, 2.4 BB/9, 44.8 GB%, 0.90 HR/9
The Industry Vote: Latos, 8-5
The Reader Vote: Latos, 61%

The big Reds righty was my pick when I was looking for a strong no. 2 starter, and those who saw him the same way (or better) were happy to cast their lots with Latos. “A lower-end elite in my book…capable of being a top five starter in the NL any given year,” an international scout said. “Tanaka isn’t here.”

The NL front-office type agreed but suggested that Tanaka could get there in time. Although he gave the nod to Latos for 2014, he said, “Darvish was much better in season two, and I’d expect that from Tanaka too.”

Others praised Tanaka’s stuff and consistency. “I would take Tanaka because he's got the best secondary pitch of the group in his split and quite possibly the best control,” said one director. “Better pitch maker in Tanaka and more reliable package,” echoed another.

But as with Bailey, some sources used previous MLB experience to break the tie in favor of Cincinnati’s starter. “While I would expect Tanaka to perform similarly to Latos and Bailey, I would still take the proven commodities next season,” said an AL exec. An NL exec valued the same certainty, saying, "Latos has a pretty nice track record…he's super physical and we know how the stuff and feel play."

Stephen Strasburg
Resume:
Projected for the third-lowest ERA among starters, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez. Arm injuries have delayed the monster season we’ve expected since he was drafted first overall in 2009 and dominated after a call-up the following season; still only a 200-inning season away from being the best pitcher in baseball. Only a few months older than Tanaka.
PECOTA Projection: 168 IP, 2.59 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 48.7 GB%, 0.75 HR/9
The Industry Vote: Strasburg, 11-2
The Reader Vote: Strasburg, 90%

In the last faceoff, the tide turned against Tanaka, as the rave reviews for Strasburg poured in.

“Still one of the most talented pitchers in baseball.” “His ceiling remains huge.” “[His] stuff is more premium.” “Has already pitched as an ace…and has the best chance of any pitcher in the group to pitch as an ace in 2014 and beyond.” "Poised to take a pretty big step forward now that he's put TJ well behind him."

Tanaka was saved from a sweep by concerns about Strasburg’s health. Both of Tanaka’s supporters cited Strasburg’s injury history as a concern, with one ranking the Washington starter below everyone except Cahill. The other also said that Strasburg wasn't close to Tanaka, praising the Japanese pitcher's command, extensive arsenal, and superior feel for pitching.

***

Even after thoroughly vetting Tanaka and, in some cases, making nine-figure offers for him, teams haven’t illuminated all of the unknowns.

“We can go over and watch the guy make every start over there and we can watch every video from every angle and we can crunch every number, but there’s certainly some questions that just can’t be answered until he gets here,” said one scouting exec. “There’s obviously some non-zero chance that he’s better than any of these guys and an absolute magician in terms of command and control, and there’s a non-zero chance that he’s an extreme strike thrower who isn’t more than a four starter because he gives up too much contact.”

That wide range of potential outcomes was reflected in the responses. One source who’s seen Tanaka many times had him first overall, while two ranked him fifth out of six.

Still, while acknowledging the big error bars, we can come to some sort of consensus. Both the industry sources and the BP audience—which agreed quite closely—put Tanaka’s 2014 talent level between Latos and Bailey; BP’s projection calls for Tanaka to post a 3.41 ERA, almost exactly halfway between Latos’ 3.15 and Bailey’s 3.62. That profile doesn’t equal an ace, but it does translate to a three-plus-win pitcher today, with potential for improvement in 2015.

Thank you for reading

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MylesHandley
1/29
Nifty article, though I'm curious if there was anyone in the field who went off-script (perhaps voting for Bailey over Tanaka, but Tanaka over Latos).
bornyank1
1/29
One person took Masterson over Tanaka, but Tanaka over Latos and Bailey. And as I mentioned, another person took Tanaka over Strasburg (but not over Latos and Bailey).
MylesHandley
1/29
Yeah, I was more thinking without regard to the obvious injury caveat (though I personally think Tanaka and Strasburg are both equally likely (read: very)) to miss a large swath of the next 7 years with a pitching injury.
MylesHandley
1/29
Also, that one Masterson supporter must work in a righties-only league.
slascher2
1/29
Seems like there is a huge gap between what the Yankees paid and the consensus view of Tanaka's likely production.
bornyank1
1/29
Yeah, you have to go through the same old exercise to justify it that we always do. If the going rate for a win is close to $7 million, and a win is worth more to the Yankees because they're close to being playoff-caliber and because they have more financial incentive to make the playoffs than every other team...and given that they have a terrible farm system and there are fewer good free agents of any age available these days, let alone 25-year-old ones...and considering that their TV revenue just went up to something like $150 million a year...and so on. You can make a case for why it made sense for them to do it when it might not have for most other teams.

At this point, I'm more interested in how good the player is going to be and how well he fits the roster than I am in how much he's making.
sporer24
1/29
I have Strasburg and Latos in runaways, Bailey in a closer match, but still a decided edge, and then Tanaka over Masterson and Cahill.

I never cease to be amazed by how much the baseball community as a whole overrates potential and the allure of the unknown over the actualized. I can't really see a compelling case for Tanaka over Latos let alone Strasburg.

I'd have used Jordan Zimmermann for the strong #2 and then it gets a bit closer as I think their stat profiles could be similar if Tanaka pans out (control-oriented, lower-Ks.
Robotey
1/29
Do you honestly rate Latos that much higher than Zimmerman?
sporer24
1/30
No, I just think Zimm-Tanaka is closer comparison. I think Latos has #1 potential still. He's already excellent, but I think he can legitimately jump another level in his late-20s.
slascher2
1/29
Right. I was thinking of him as potentially a Japanese Greg Maddux. If he is 90% or even 85% of Greg Maddux, that would be great. (I'm a Yankees fan.). But it sounds like no one expects him to be close to that.
leleutd
1/29
85% of Greg Maddux is a no-doubt hall of famer. I'm not comfortable putting that label on Tanaka just yet.
frankopy
1/29
reality is a tad less glamorous than the romantic race to get him signed...none of the pitchers mentioned in the article would elicit the dollars tanaka was given, would they?
hyprvypr
1/29
Certainly Strasburg would and Latos probably could get 6 yrs/120 million if he was eligible today. Strasburg, especially if he throws 200 'Strasburgian' innings this year would be a 200+ million over 8 year guy.
oloughla
1/29
Post-2014 valuation is a crucial factor in determining what kind of multi-year contract a player will command, whereas this exercise focused exclusively on 2014 production.
sporer24
1/30
Stras and Latos for sure. Probably Bailey, too.
hyprvypr
1/29
I'll go with 160 innings, some arm soreness(dead arm period), 14-8 record and 4.20 E.R.A. 120/50 k/bb ratio.
bornyank1
1/29
Received a 12th response (ranked Strasburg, Latos, Tanaka, Bailey, Masterson, Cahill) and updated the numbers accordingly.
oloughla
1/29
I'm pretty surprised by the Bailey/Tanaka results. I think it's Bailey by a decent margin both in terms of certainty and potential and that those who choose Tanaka are suffering from the same "shiny new toy" syndrome that plagues most fantasy drafts.
oloughla
1/29
This poll concerned 2014 expectations only.

Yu Darvish posted a 3.90 ERA, 90 ERA-, 3.52 xFIP with 190 IP in his first professional season. Given that Darvish's scouting reports blow away anything I've ever heard about Tanaka, I think that's on high end of Tanaka's projections this year.

Meanwhile, Bailey is coming off a 3.49 ERA, 92 ERA-, 3.34 xFIP season and has thrown thrown 200 innings during each of the last two seasons.
bornyank1
1/29
Added another response from a straggler, bringing the total to 13 from 12 teams. This one put Tanaka between Bailey and Masterson.
ragerd
1/30
Only one AL pitcher in the comparison?
zasxcdfv
1/30
Could you post a grid of who picked what? Like A picked Tanaka over Masterson, but Bailey over Cahill? I'd be interested to see how they rank the pitchers.
Nacho999
1/31
I wonder if the conversation would be the same if it wasn't the Evil Empire who signed him or if he didn't get $100M more than Darvish...Compare the pitchers listed above to Seattle's Iwakuma, who by the way excels in the AL (thank you ragerd) and not the seven batter lineups with built in K's and lower ERAs you see in the NL, and only Strausburg really stands out, but mostly because of what he hasn't done yet...If can be 95% as effective as the 2013 Iwakuma, it'll be a win for New York...Obviously no one is worth that kind of money, but the market has spoken...The risk here is obvious, but why don't we let this guy throw a few games before we start cutting him to ribbons?...Just my two cents...