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January 15, 2014
by Jason Parks
Prospect rankings primer
Last year's Giants list
The Top Ten
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44 comments have been left for this article.
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A little surprised that Stratton missed out. Fair to assume that it comes down to lack of raw stuff?
You can really make a case for a dozen guys in the #3-#10 mix. Stratton has a very good case, but I happen to prefer Agosta a bit more. Its just a slight preference at that point based on the depth of the stuff and my own experiences with the player.
I'm not sold on Williamson. Obvious athleticism and strength, but several sources put the Quad-A profile tag on him. Like several other players that weren't featured, Williamson has a case for inclusion. But the doubts about his bat against better pitching helped make the decision.
That makes sense - I just thought it was odd that he went from ranked #7 in the system last year (with a 6 overall future potential grade) to off the list this year.
I would have guessed that an 879 OPS, even in a hitter-friendly league, would be enough to maintain any optimism scouts had in you a year ago. Maybe the 132 whiffs made the 25 HR less impressive... maybe they see him as Billy Ashley revisited?
Whoops! By "...optimism scouts had in you...," I meant the royal "you," the editorial or whatever.
But for his gruesome injury, where would Gustavo Cabrera have ranked?
Not in the top ten. Tool-based ceiling would have put him in the debate, though.
Usually when I read about prospects ranking highly based on their tools, and that prospect is in his teens, I expect to see a free swinging stat line with few walks. I was a bit surprised to see Cabrera walked 30 times in 229 plate appearances in the Rookie Dominican Summer League. Obviously box score scouting is misguided at best, and foolish at worst, but have you heard positive reports in regards to his approach? An 18 year old with tools and something resembling an approach at the dish definitely provides some daydreaming material. Thanks in advance for any thoughts.
I am going to google cabrera's injury, but any details to share here?
There system is so pitching heavy, does that speak at all to the strengths of their developmental system? Do you have an opinion on the Giants' ability to develop pitchers and does that factor into your ranking of Mella? If Mella was in another teams farm, would you have as much optimism for the potential ceiling?"
Quick editorial note: Escobar was acquired in a trade with Texas for Rule 5 pick Ben Snyder.
Ah never mind. You had it right in "The Year Ahead."
Two things: One, Clayton Blackburn height weight is listed as his birthdate,
Second, it seems like a lot of these starting pitchers have advanced changeups, is that from a coaching philosophy or a focus the team looks at when acquiring players?
Great work as usual. Thanks to Jason and Steffan and staff.
I guess the philosophical question that the Giants' current system poses (and I've seen a lot of debate about this issue on Giants' blogs) is where exactly is the line where diminishing returns begins to kick in for a large collection of back-end starters? Pitching depth is obviously a huge value to have (particularly in the upper minors) but you also don't want to develop an entire major league rotation of #4s.
What are your thoughts on this Jason. If you're the Giants, and say all the guys on this list with a realistic projection of a #4 starter actually turn into #4 starters -- how many of them do you want in your major league rotation together? And what would you estimate is the market trade value for the others?
Good question/comment. I think the Giants can boast a mixture of frontline arms and back-end arms, although the latter is clearly more abundant. Crick is a stud, and even with the risk involved, is going to be an impact arm in some capacity. Mella has similar impact potential with a lot more risk attached, and you can make the case that Gregorio belongs in the discussion based on his size and remaining projections.
To explore your question: I think its safe to say the Giants won't develop every mid/back arm to potential, but they are likely to develop a healthy chuck of major league arms from the current crop of talent. You hope for impact types, but if you just assume #4 ceilings (for the sake of argument) I think any developmental success should be seen as a huge win for the org, regardless of the impact or potential logjam. Having too much talent is never a bad thing, especially when all players are forms of currency that can be used to better your ball club.
While I can't speak to specific trade value without looking at the attributes of the specific players involved, cost-controlled number four starters are extremely valuable commodities to own, even if the upside is limited. The overflow could open up a lot of possibilities, including bundling a package of quality, low-risk/minimal upside arms for something of more value [read: upside].
While I don't think building a system of #4 starters is a market inefficiency, I think any kind of talent that you can develop to potential is more valuable than the dreams you can sell with higher risk players, especially in trades. I'd be willing to bet that most teams would prefer to acquire a guaranteed number four starter ready for action than a potential number two starter that is years away that comes with a higher risk.
Good take. Thanks.
I do believe you're low on Williamson. Great body, great work ethic. Good athleticism. I believe the hit tool will be good enough for the power to play.
I understand being conservative with Cal league hitter performances though.
Adalberto is a sweet name.
So, based of your short scouting report, Ryder Jones sounds like an excellent second round pick even though he was much maligned during the draft. Do you like him better than you did originally after the draft, or do you think that the pick was pretty bad?
I didn't have an issue with the Jones pick. I thought Arroyo was a bit of a stretch at the time, but only because there were doubts about his ability to stick at shortstop and it seemed like a Panik profile, which I'm not a big fan of, especially that early in the draft.
6’7” 180 lbs
Holy crap. I would love to hear the strength and conditioning plan for a body type like that.
Crick the only Top 101? How close was Mejia? I mean, first name Adalberto, we know already that's a plus plus.
Crick is the only top 101 for the Giants. Mejia was in the mix, but failed to make the cut. I'll probably regret that by summer.
Don't worry. I'll remind you #mezcal
I believe this is the first Top 10 this year that doesn't feature any players who made their MLB debut. (I'm in a sim league that drafts those players, hence the interest.)
Would Hembree be the top guy in the system who has already reached MLB? Or would other guys (Kickham? Adrianza?) have higher ceilings? What are the chances of Kieschnick/Noonan/Perez being players?
If Crick is a "frontline starter in the making", why doesn't he have a #1 starter upside?
Scouting distinction. True #1 starters are rare. Look around the league and you will find several frontline number two starters (scouting) that pitch atop their team's rotation. With Crick, his shaky command and inconsistent secondary profile prevent him from projecting as a true #1 starter, a distinction that only a few pitchers in the minors can boast. Nothing wrong with a frontline number two starter. That's a pitcher that would be considered the ace of half the staffs in the game.
So would it be fair to say that a frontline starter is nominal ace/#2/#3, mid rotation type is a weak #2/good #3/excellent #4?
For me, frontline is any pitcher capable of pitching atop a rotation, most likely as a legit #1 or #2 starter (scouting). Mid-rotation can be a weaker number two-four starter set; back-end can be a weaker number three-five set.
Part of this discussion is that true #1s are made at the major league level, right?
I'm of the belief that the ultimate distinction of "Ace" is earned and not projected.
Oooo I like- I like this distinction!
This sounds really nitpicky
While they've only Madeira the the complex-level leagues, did you hear anything about Luis Ysla and Eury Sanchez?
Did any of the Giants high profile day 3 picks (Fargas, Arenado, Jones, Riley) come close to making the on the rise list?
I like Jones a fair amount.
Christian, are we talking here? (Giants drafted lots o' Joneses last year).
Great reporting. You pack a lot of information into these.
All of their last four first rounders (Brown, Panik, Stratton and Arroyo) failed to make the top ten list. Scouting failure, or win because others passed them by?
What do you think of Ricky Oropesa?
Matthew Duffy? His 2013 slash line looks drool-worthy coming from shortstop. Is there something the stats miss that's keeping him off this list?
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