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August 27, 2003

Lies, Damned Lies

The Value of Speed

by Nate Silver

As you are all unfortunately aware, Bobby Bonds died this past Saturday after a long battle with cancer. Bobby came before my time, and I'm not fit to eulogize him. But perhaps I can honor his memory in some way by looking at players of the sort that Bobby exemplified: power-speed sluggers.

A lot of analysts are fond of disparaging the value of speed (this Web site has been no exception). Speed is perceived as a scouty thing, a tool that looks impressive, but has little practical value on a baseball diamond. The one definitive advantage that speed would seem to provide--the stolen base--is rightly considered an overrated tool. Even within mainstream circles, speed seems to be losing currency. As ballplayers bulk up, and deeper lineups grow ever more capable of scoring runs with the bat alone, stolen base attempts become less frequent. Entire teams are willing to put together their rosters without so much as giving speed the once-over.

Well, I think speed has gotten a raw deal. Certainly, speed isn't as important for a position player as the Big Three skills--hitting for contact, hitting for power, and controlling the strike zone--and to list it alongside those three, implying that it is of equal significance, is confusing. But speed is still plenty important for a number of reasons:

1. The least important benefit of speed is the advantage it provides a player in stealing bases and advancing extra bases on teammates' hits.

2. Somewhat more significant is the advantage that speed provides to a defensive player, particularly in center field.

3. More important still is the edge that speed provides to a player's potency when at the plate. Speed turns double plays into fielders' choices, outs into singles, singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. Based on some preliminary studies that I've done, the difference in batting average between a very slow player and a very fast player is on the order of 40 points, with a tweak upward or downward depending on how frequently the player hits the ball on the ground. Add in the additional extra base hits that speed can facilitate, and we're easily talking about 100 points of OPS.

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