A couple of weeks ago, I spelled out
the argument that there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. Just as a
follow-up, I want to point out something Rangers’ Director of Player
Development Grady Fuson said in an interview with Jamey Newberg:
“And most of these kids that we’re signing out of high school or junior
college or college, for the first three or four years of their careers they
are still growing. They are still adding muscle mass and growth, and at least
my perception of developing pitchers is most don’t come into their prime until
at least their mid-20s. And I think that all has to do with body growth and
body mass and finding that one delivery that helps repeat. And I think that
all takes two or three years to build into your system.”
(The whole interview can be read at Newberg’s Texas
Rangers Web site.)
Fuson makes the point that is central to TNSTAAPP: Most pitchers in the minor
leagues are still developing physically, which is what makes them such risks.
Pitching professionally is hard enough on the arms of grown men; it’s moreso
on ones not fully mature.
Anyway, that’s not really why I’m writing about this again. This e-mail is:
“The argument would be more persuasive if you could show that there IS
such a thing as a position-player prospect–because it’s possible that
TNSTAAPP because TNSTAAP (no such thing as a *prospect*), which implies
TNSTAAPP.–J.W.”
I thought that was a fair point, so I went back and looked through the same
lists from which I pulled the pitchers: BP’s Top 40 Prospects from 1999
through 2001.
Player AB AVG OBP SLG Comment -------------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Chavez 2508 .276 .345 .499 One of the game's top 3Bs J.D. Drew 1841 .281 .374 .496 Hitter; can't stay healthy Alex Escobar 72 .181 .213 .389 Lost 2 seasons to injuries Pablo Ozuna 80 .313 .333 .413 AgeGate added 3 years Nick Johnson 656 .253 .371 .424 Lost 2000 to hand injury Jeremy Giambi 1417 .263 .377 .430 Lousy glove, attitude Qs Carlos Beltran 2745 .286 .349 .475 Great, underrated player Ruben Mateo 700 .259 .313 .397 Broken leg in 2000 Russ Branyan 1003 .229 .320 .480 411 Ks keep him on benches Ben Davis 1283 .243 .317 .369 HS catcher; bat never came Chad Hermansen 483 .199 .259 .335 Defense and contact issues Lance Berkman 2031 .299 .404 .565 MVP candidate in 2001 Mitch Meluskey 405 .286 .390 .454 Bum shoulder ruined career Marcus Giles 909 .278 .354 .472 Breaking through in '03 D'Angelo Jimenez 1197 .267 .345 .377 Car crash altered career Michael Barrett 1773 .254 .310 .388 Bat never really came George Lombard 329 .225 .279 .343 Missed most of 2001 Ben Petrick 615 .259 .341 .457 Still might pan out as UT Peter Bergeron 1061 .226 .305 .312 Never hit Carlos Febles 1656 .250 .328 .354 Fragile; out of majors Calvin Pickering 115 .217 .343 .391 Weight problems Ronnie Belliard 2065 .266 .343 .392 Underrated player Dernell Stenson 26 .269 .345 .577 Just reached majors Gabe Kapler 1824 .271 .335 .430 Power and health issues Daryle Ward 1192 .261 .306 .440 One-half dimensional Joe Crede 683 .264 .306 .433 Coming on strong this year Angel Pena 187 .209 .256 .326 Weight and attitude Tom Evans 102 .255 .347 .343 No clean chances at a job Jackie Rexrode N/A Never as good as 1998 Pat Burrell 1956 .253 .350 .478 Tremendous power Sean Burroughs 594 .283 .344 .384 Still just 22 Vernon Wells 1347 .292 .328 .488 Came slowly, but got there Rafael Furcal 1957 .283 .347 .401 AgeGate added 2 years Corey Patterson 1094 .260 .293 .419 Hurt knee in July Michael Cuddyer 203 .246 .313 .409 Constantly changing POSs Dee Brown 605 .231 .278 .334 Flop Jack Cust 102 .176 .315 .333 DH; major contact issues Chin-Feng Chen 6 .000 .143 .000 Advanced slowly Esteban German 35 .200 .300 .200 Lapped by Mark Ellis Milton Bradley 1094 .264 .345 .411 Attitude Qs persist Aubrey Huff 1495 .291 .339 .478 More valuable as a 3B Matt LeCroy 637 .262 .311 .462 Finally a regular in 2003 M. Restovich 55 .309 .424 .491 Hitter in crowded org Adam Piatt 498 .253 .327 .430 Meningitis cost him a year Alfonso Soriano 1878 .281 .320 .495 Great power and speed Jayson Werth 94 .234 .298 .383 Not a C anymore Jason Romano 121 .207 .254 .256 One good year Travis Dawkins 98 .163 .241 .204 Not our finest moment M. Encarnacion 69 .203 .276 .217 Another AgeGate case Jose Ortiz 449 .243 .305 .379 Sent to Japan; still 26 Ichiro Suzuki 1883 .335 .381 .445 2001 AL MVP; prospect? Jimmy Rollins 1856 .262 .315 .391 Adds value with glove Antonio Perez 117 .256 .338 .376 Broken hand in 2001 Josh Hamilton N/A Back and personal problems Carlos Pena 803 .252 .329 .461 Disappointment so far Hee Seop Choi 247 .215 .340 .409 Badly mishandled this year J.R. House N/A Coming back from injury Kevin Mench 491 .275 .341 .452 Broken wrist in 2003 Adam Dunn 1160 .241 .379 .484 Still developing Austin Kearns 664 .292 .388 .480 Excellent player Brad Wilkerson 1025 .259 .356 .451 Multi-talented player Albert Pujols 1653 .333 .407 .610 Pretty good hitter Keith Ginter 350 .266 .359 .431 Older prospect; now a UT Craig Wilson 725 .270 .362 .484 Mishandled; still hits Luis Rivas 1318 .266 .315 .381 Maybe rushed Wilson Betemit 3 .000 .400 .000 Stopped hitting in 2002
I’m not going to pretend that we can draw conclusions by looking at a
three-year sample of Top 40 Prospects lists, so take this with a grain of
salt. I do believe that we see fewer washouts and more contributors when
looking at the position players, and there aren’t as many traumatic injuries
that cost players whole seasons.
This little project has convinced me of one thing: I’m too quick to get
excited about young players. I look at someone like Michael
Cuddyer, who first appeared on the list in 1999 and about whom I
wrote in that year’s book that his ETA was late 2000. Cuddyer has 203
major-league at-bats and has gone through more position changes than Jenna
Jameson. There are guys like that all over the list, players for whom I
projected rapid advancement who either didn’t develop or who developed just
fine on a more realistic timetable.
While I stand by TNSTAAPP, I’m not prepared to extend the notion to say that
there’s no such thing as a prospect, period (TNSTAAP,P?). Position players are
more predictable than pitchers at any age, largely because they don’t face the
same injury risk. Even the most impressive young pitchers in the minor leagues
today are immature physically, and they’re performing against competition that
bears little resemblance to what they’ll face in Major League Baseball.
Thank you for reading
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