CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Baseball ProGUESTus: W... (12/10)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/09)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/11)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Winter ... (12/10)

December 10, 2013

Transaction Analysis

Felipe Paulino, Not the Steal of the Winter

by R.J. Anderson


CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Signed RHP Felipe Paulino to a one-year deal worth $1.75 million with a club option worth $4 million. [12/9]

A rule of thumb: if a deal looks like the steal of the winter, then it's probably not the steal of the winter. This is less about the efficient-market hypothesis than about how things work; players who receive inexpensive or short deals tend to be old, injured, bad, or a combination thereof.

Paulino fits under the last part. He missed most of last season due to Tommy John surgery rehab and subsequent suprascapular nerve decompression in his throwing shoulder. Before the procedures, Paulino had the reputation of being a stuff-over-results pitcher, as his ERA and other numbers rarely looked as good as his strikeout rate or radar-gun readings. The best explanation for the discrepancy is sloppy geography caused by a large body, violent delivery, and multiple release points—he moves on the rubber depending on the opposing batter's hand, a la Trevor Bauer and Francisco Liriano.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Chicago White Sox,  Transactions

1 comment has been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Baseball ProGUESTus: W... (12/10)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/09)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (12/11)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Winter ... (12/10)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 20, 2014
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Place Their Be...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Being Wrong About Yovani ...
Fantasy Article They Hold No Quarter: Second Basemen
The Lineup Card: Seven Epitaphs for Bud Seli...
Moonshot: The Analytic Value of the Crack of...
Pebble Hunting: You Lie!

MORE FROM DECEMBER 10, 2013
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Winter Meetings Day One Notes
Baseball ProGUESTus: What Happened to the Tw...
Premium Article Minor League Update: International Winter Le...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Mixed-League Hitter Valua...
The BP Wayback Machine: Winter Meetings Revi...

MORE BY R.J. ANDERSON
2013-12-12 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: How Great Thou Bart
2013-12-11 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Mark Trumbo Gets the N...
2013-12-11 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Getting Detroit Runnin...
2013-12-10 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Felipe Paulino, Not th...
2013-12-09 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Collect Qualls [UPDATE...
2013-12-09 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The AL East Rearms
2013-12-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Granderson Takes the 4...
More...

MORE TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
2013-12-11 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Mark Trumbo Gets the N...
2013-12-11 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Brett Anderson at Alti...
2013-12-11 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Getting Detroit Runnin...
2013-12-10 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Felipe Paulino, Not th...
2013-12-09 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Collect Qualls [UPDATE...
2013-12-09 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The AL East Rearms
2013-12-06 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: A Need Cano Basis
More...