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August 22, 2003

Prospectus Triple Play

Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners

by Baseball Prospectus

Cleveland Indians

  • One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: Travis Hafner has finally come around and hit like we expected him to at the start of the season.
    
                       AVG   OBP   SLG
    Pre All-Star      .221  .289  .423
    Post All-Star     .292  .364  .521
    
    
    Unfortunately for the Indians, Milton Bradley's out until at least mid-September with a nasty back bruise. There may be some sort of Ohio statute that prohibits the Indians from fielding a lineup with more than one hitter that actually worries opposing teams. If Hafner gets hurt just before Bradley gets back from the DL, it's probably a States' Rights conflict of some sort.

  • Trade Winds: Brian Anderson's one of the few names mentioned as a possible mover during August Movement Days (which sounds vaguely like either a sales drive at a car dealer or a nightmarish milieu encouraging colonic achievement in an assisted living facility.) Anderson will receive a bonus of over a half million dollars if he's traded, but you have to wonder if potential trade partners have taken a careful look at his career, or, for that matter, just this year's stat line:
    
      IP    H  HR  BB   K   ERA
     148  162  21  32  72  3.71
    
    
    I know what you're thinking--that stat line doesn't make any sense. How does a guy have a 3.71 ERA when he's giving up hits and bombs at such an Ackerian rate? Maybe he's incredible with runners on base? He's better than with the bases empty, but not much. With the bases empty, hitters are pasting Anderson to the tune of .282/.325/.512, compared to .290/.316/.434 with runners on. That might account for some of the irregularity. But still--that's an extremely low ERA for those peripherals. Is there any logical explanation?

    Yep. Anderson's allowed a tidy 27 unearned runs. Pedro Martinez has allowed 37 earned runs. Tim Hudson? Fifty-four, but in 196 innings. Anderson's always been a pitcher that's lived off luck, and any organization that picks him up should stock up on four-leaf clovers, rabbit's feet, and locks of Christopher Dodd's hair. Anderson's RA for this year? Try 5.35. His VORP for the year? Ten. Where's Jeff Bittiger when you need him?

  • Picture of a Thousand Faces: Where's Danys Baez? Baez spent the 2001 season in the bullpen, and was very effective, using his nasty stuff to post a 2.50 ERA, limited opposing hitters to 34 hits in 50 innings, and struck out more than a batter per inning. Baez, one of the Cuban imports, was moved to the rotation for the 2002 campaign, where he was good but not outstanding, throwing 165 innings with a 4.41 ERA. So the Indians moved him to the closer role for the 2003 season, because the Indians have so many quality starting pitchers that they had to find space for them to...no, that's not it. For some reason, they moved him into the closer's role, because someone has to pitch the ninth of games you're winning, but not by more than three runs. Baez has pitched well but not exceptionally, blowing eight saves in 33 opportunities. Now he's out of the closer role and the rotation, and will be in the bullpen as an innings guy. Next year? Don't rule out Baez as a great sleeper candidate to take over the shortstop or bullpen catcher roles.

  • A Jerry Bruckheimer Production: According to Mark Shapiro, Casey Blake will be the starting 3B for the Indians in 2004. "He's the starting third baseman without a doubt. There are only nine (3Bs) in the major leagues who are performing better," according to Shapiro. Unfortunately, that's not precisely accurate.
    
    Name                Team(s)   PA    EQA    EQR   RAR   RAP  RARP
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Lowell, Mike        FLA      497   .314   87.1  47.1  31.6  46.4
    Rolen, Scott        STL      485   .316   83.2  45.6  31.0  44.9
    Mueller, Bill       BOS      436   .322   78.5  44.8  31.6  44.1
    Blalock, Hank       TEX      460   .305   74.5  37.7  23.4  37.0
    Koskie, Corey       MIN      424   .311   69.6  36.7  23.9  36.1
    Chavez, Eric        OAK      481   .292   73.5  33.2  17.5  32.4
    Ensberg, Morgan     HOU       32   .300   50.3  24.5  13.2  23.1
    Glaus, Troy         ANA      366   .285   52.4  21.7   9.3  20.8
    Castilla, Vinny     ATL      454   .268   57.6  18.2   2.8  17.4
    Burroughs, Sean     SDP      414   .271   51.4  17.3   3.2  16.1
    Wigginton, Ty       NYM      492   .263   59.0  16.6   0.0  15.7
    Munson, Eric        DET      349   .271   45.7  15.5   2.9  14.3
    Hinske, Eric        TOR      357   .266   44.1  13.6   1.7  13.0
    Blake, Casey        CLE      456   .262   55.4  15.4  -3.0  12.5
    Helms, Wes          MIL      393   .262   46.6  13.1  -0.4  12.1
    Batista, Tony       BAL      495   .252   56.3  11.6  -6.5  10.2
    Ginter, Keith       MIL      268   .273   33.9  11.8   0.6   9.5
    Stynes, Chris       COL      387   .256   42.1  10.0  -3.7   8.5
    Ramirez, Aramis   CHC/PIT    493   .257   56.2  13.6  -9.3   8.2
    Alfonzo, Edgardo    SFG      448   .250   47.5   8.9  -6.5   7.9
    Martinez, Ramon     CHC      228   .266   26.9   8.2   1.0   7.9
    Randa, Joe          KCR      395   .250   41.9   8.0  -5.4   7.2
    Rolls, Damian       TBY      271   .260   32.4   8.5  -3.2   6.3
    Merloni, Lou        SDP      152   .266   17.8   5.4   0.5   5.1
    Perez, Tomas        PHI      213   .262   24.8   6.9  -2.4   4.9
    Crede, Joe          CWS      437   .242   43.9   5.3  -9.8   4.5
    Sandberg, Jared     TBY       98   .268   12.4   3.9   0.3   3.6
    Clark, Howie        TOR       70   .287    9.5   4.0   1.1   3.3
    Hammock, Robby      ARI      119   .262   14.6   4.1  -0.8   3.3
    Beltre, Adrian      LAD      435   .238   43.3   3.7 -11.6   3.0
    Counsell, Craig     ARI      263   .242   25.1   3.0  -5.1   3.0
    Williams, Matt      ARI      152   .250   15.8   3.0  -2.2   2.6
    Feliz, Pedro        SFG      203   .251   23.8   4.7  -6.1   1.9
    Bloomquist, Willie  SEA      194   .246   19.8   3.0  -4.8   1.8
    Truby, Chris        TBY       48   .257    5.2   1.3  -0.3   1.2
    Carroll, Jamey      MON      224   .235   20.1   1.1  -6.8   0.4
    
    
    Blake's currently 14th by Runs Above Replacement Player, and his rate of production is largely indistinguishable from a number of players below him on the list, like Wes Helms, Keith Ginter, Ramon Martinez, Damian Rolls, Lou Merloni...you get the idea. Blake's certainly established himself as a major league player, and he's arguably earned the right to another year to see if he can take another step forward, but he's not a championship caliber ballplayer. Then again, it's not as if the Indians are bursting at the seams with potential replacements, and given playing time, Blake could blossom into a .280 EqA 3B. Just don't try to tell us that he's in the top ten 3B in MLB.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Guess Who's Back? Shawn Green, that's who. Since the All-Star break, Green has hit .342/.443/.496--a far cry from his early summer Michael Tucker impersonation that got him included in Joe Sheehan's list of first half disappointments.

    What's interesting about Green's turnaround, however, is that it appears to be for real. As Joe pointed out in his column, the deterioration in Green's first half production corresponded eerily well with an inability to control the strike zone. Since the All-Star break, however, Green's plate discipline seems to have returned:

    
    2003             PA     BB%     SO%
    -----------------------------------
    Pre All-Star    399      8%     19%
    Post All-Star   139     14%     13%
    
    
    Could it be thanks to the firing of hitting coach Jack Clark? Perhaps. Green, after all, has hit remarkably well since August 3--the day of Clark's firing. Causality is a tough thing to establish, however, so we'll just dodge the question and say that it doesn't matter why Green is suddenly taking more pitches, it only matters that he's doing it. Remember, people: the strike zone is a weapon.

  • Watch Out For That Cliff! It's not uncommon for everyday players--especially those on the right end of the defensive spectrum--to see a decline in their production as the season wears on. One-hundred sixty-two games is a boatload, and spending half your time avoiding someone's spikes on the double-play or wearing the tools of ignorance is not particularly easy or comfortable. Cal Ripken Jr. often saw a noticable decline in his production in the month of September. And who could forget Mike Piazza's limp to the finish line in 2000 after appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated as the leading candidate for NL MVP in August?

    With that being said, it is really that much of a surprise that Paul Lo Duca appears to be hitting the wall once again for the Boys in Blue? Since the All-Star break, Lo Duca has hit a dismal .230/.282/.311 with just five walks and 14 strikeouts. And it's not like this is new territory for the catcher; here are his first- and second-half splits over the past three seasons:

    
    2001-2003       AB  2B  3B  HR  BB  SO  SB  CS   AVG  OBP  SLG
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    Pre All-Star   835  57   3  25  65  61   4   3  .323 .380 .488
    Post All-Star  656  37   0  17  43  47   1   4  .257 .303 .392
    
    
    That's a 20% reduction in batting average and an 18% reduction in Isolated Slugging, for those of you scoring at home. In other words, during the first half the Dodgers get Ivan Rodriguez for roughly 400 ABs, and in the second half they get...Ramon Hernandez?

    It's a little late to be calling for this now, but the Los Angeles Dodgers need to seriously look into better managing Lo Duca's time behind the plate. One day off per week during the first half would probably go a long way toward helping Lo Duca stay productive during the dog days of summer, and equally help the Dodgers' chances of challenging for the Wild Card.

Seattle Mariners

  • That Is Just Wrong: Rafael Soriano can call Janet Jackson "Miss Jackson" because he's nasty. Soriano has been so effective Bret Boone took a lawn chair out to second and napped during a tense eighth-inning relief appearance. The Safeco Field groundscrew asked manager Bob Melvin not to use Soriano on consecutive days, because the batters were wearing a path in the grass walking from the dugout and straight back. Soriano hasn't walked a batter since July 12th, when Marlon Anderson worked one. In that time, he's struck out 32 batters, which is a team record, or something. I don't know, the stats guys never got back to me.

  • Here Comes the Cavalry: battered by injuries, frequently with players "day-to-day" and thin on the bench to start with, no team should look forward to September call ups more than the Mariners. Unfortunately, most of the Mariners talent is on their AA affiliate, the San Antonio Missions, and the team's decided that it's more important for them to get playoff experience and seasoning than help the big club. As a result, the team doesn't have many position players that'll be useful, defensively or otherwise, and they've already got a deep and effective pen. Likely call-ups: OF-R Jamal Strong, a slap-hitting, walk-drawing speedster dedicated to making the most of his skill (unlike such walk-allergic jet-powered outfielders like Brian Hunter), C-R Pat Borders, and all the pitchers in Tacoma who are on the 40-man and not in Seattle, many who've already made walk-on appearances: Brian Sweeney, J.J. Putz, Aaron Looper... You name it. We may also get to see the triumphant return of 1B-L J.R. Phillips, one-time heir to Will Clark's legacy in San Francisco, if the Mariners want a specialist left-handed masher for the occasional pinch-hitting gig, and they're willing to move someone on the 40-man roster to the 60-day DL. Like Chris Snelling.

  • Ow, ow, ow: Outfield prospect Chris Snelling went down with a torn left meniscus in his knee and will have surgery. This follows an ACL replacement that cost him most of last year. Snelling's talent is undeniable, but he's dogged by injuries. This injury is particularly unfortunate as Snelling was finally getting comfortable hitting and running on his new knee. The team thinks he might be able to head to the Arizona Fall League, and if everything breaks right, he might still be able to steal into next year's outfield.

  • Mirror, Mirror, on the Schedule: Oakland is four games behind the Mariners at press time, and it seems increasingly unlikely that they'll be able to catch up to win the AL West title. Here's how the two teams' remaining games stack up from Friday the 22nd onward as they come out of a series against Toronto (M's) and Boston (A's). See if you can spot the similarities.
    
         Mariners                 Oakland
    
    4 games @ Boston        4 games @ Toronto
    3 games vs. Tampa Bay   3 games vs. Baltimore
    3 games vs. Baltimore   3 games vs. Tampa Bay
    3 games @ Tampa Bay     3 games @ Baltimore
    3 games @ Baltimore     3 games @ Tampa Bay
    3 games vs. Texas       4 games vs. Anaheim
    3 games vs. Anaheim     3 games @ Texas
    4 games @ Texas         3 games vs. Anaheim
         3 Oakland-Seattle games @ Oakland
    3 games @ Anaheim       3 games vs. Texas
         3 Oakland-Seattle games @ Seattle
    
    
    Coming down the stretch, these two teams don't just face the same opponents, they face them in almost identical home/road series. With the Mariners enjoying a healthy lead over an A's team that's just suffered injuries to their rotation, the team may rest Gil Meche, who started hot and has been erratic and battled shoulder soreness since then, possibly giving some starts against the chum teams to Rafael Soriano.

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