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November 7, 2013

Sporer Report

Is Big Erv Overvalued?

by Paul Sporer


Last week I offered you a handful of ways to traverse this nasty time of year when we are without baseball, at least in the on-field form (in the MLB). You may be passing the time with a full immersion into your fantasy dice roll… er… football league, but chances are that you’re finding it coming up short. By the way I will just quickly mention that I play fantasy football, too, but I stand by the potshot—there is virtually no skill in that game for a bevy of reasons. Running this will have just as much as accuracy as the weekly projections on your fantasy football site.

But I digress.

Even if you are on your way to the fantasy Super Bowl, you still have plenty of time for offseason baseball as setting your football lineup only takes nine minutes of your Tuesday afternoon. It’s never too early to start familiarizing yourself with the upcoming player pool—not just the new and departing players, but also the shifts in the pool. Today, we will look at a free agent starting pitcher whose 2014 value may well be overly inflated by both his 2013 as well as his potential landing spot this winter.

Ervin Santana
I’ve long been a fan of Big Erv (credit: Mike Siano of MLB.com) and I’ve benefitted from some of his best work, but also taken some of his 5.00-something ERA seasons on the chin. All three times he’s posted a 5.00-plus ERA in a season, he has rebounded nicely the following year, and 2013 was no different. He cut his walks and homers allowed in Kansas City and pulled his 2012 ERA of 5.16 down to a very respectable 3.24—just in time for a walk year. Those homers are the key:

It’s not really any surprise to see a pitcher’s ERA rise and fall with his home run rate. Home runs are obviously bad and allowing more is likely to inflate your ERA, but Santana in particular has significant issues with the gopher ball and his inability to consistently tame it has led to an inconsistent career. As such, where he signs will be critically important. He and his agent have to know of his home run troubles so I can’t imagine Colorado or Cincinnati would be quick on the callback list whereas Oakland and even a return to Anaheim would be—or at least should be—among his top choices.

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<< Previous Article
The BP Wayback Machine... (11/07)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Sporer Report: Three W... (11/01)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Sporer Report: Top 20 ... (12/27)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Minor League Update: A... (11/07)

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