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October 30, 2013

Playoff Prospectus

World Series Game Six Preview: Cardinals at Red Sox

by Bret Sayre


One would think that it’s very difficult for a team to go on the road and win the final two games of the World Series with their backs up against the wall, as the Cardinals are facing right now. However, history tells us otherwise. If you make an assumption that most World Series teams are somewhat evenly matched, you’d expect a specific team to win two games in a row around 25 percent of the time. Throw in the heightened atmosphere and lack of home field advantage, and you might expect that number to go down, but it turns out it’s exactly 25 percent. In World Series history, there have been 24 teams facing a 3-2 deficit as they went on the road for Game Six. That road team has prevailed six times. Can the Cardinals make it seven? They’ll turn to their rookie sensation to get them there.

Here is a look at the PECOTA odds and projected lineups for Game Six of the World Series:

Cardinals (Michael Wacha) at Red Sox (John Lackey) 7:30 p.m. ET
PECOTA odds of winning: Cardinals 64.1%, Red Sox 35.9%

Projected Starting Lineups:

Cardinals vs Lackey (R)

Red Sox vs Wacha (R)

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<< Previous Article
The Lineup Card: 15 Th... (10/30)
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Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Ba... (10/30)
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Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: Wo... (10/31)
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