CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Dollar Sign on the Mus... (10/17)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/16)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/17)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/17)

October 17, 2013

Playoff Prospectus

ALCS Game Four Recap: Tigers 7, Red Sox 3

by Sam Miller

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Eight days ago, Josh Donaldson hit a swinging bunt down the third base line. Miguel Cabrera charged and fielded it on a chop, wiggled into a throwing position, and missed getting Donaldson out by the smallest margin.

For minutes afterward, the camera focused on him pacing, wincing, scowling, as he had obviously aggravated one of his injuries. At the time, Cabrera was 3-for-13 in the series, without a walk or an extra-base hit. His value at the time was limited to the murky territory that exists between the tangible and intangible. Max Scherzer, for instance, credited him with inspiring him to get out of a bases-loaded jam in the eighth inning. "When you see Miggy going out there with his injuries—battling as hard as he can—it makes you want to do anything for the team. If they would have asked me to keep going, I would have," Scherzer said. Bob Melvin, for instance, credited Cabrera with being an intimidating presence in the lineup, whether he’s hitting or not. That’s pretty weak sauce. Cabrera wasn’t contributing for squat, and that Josh Donaldson swinging bunt seemed like it just might end the effort. I didn’t expect to see Cabrera play more than another inning in the postseason.

Since then, he’s hitting .273/.333/.545, in 24 plate appearances. That’s not Miguel Cabrera, Triple Crown Threat, but remember that he’s doing this against postseason pitchers. If he’d been doing this all along, we wouldn’t have written him off, or maybe even worried about him at all. In Game 4, a 7-3 Tigers win to even the series, he stole a base, up by seven runs. It wasn’t a big test—he got a huge walking lead and jogged in without a throw or a slide—but it at least demonstrated that he was willing to run more than the minimum required. That’s data.

So now Miguel Cabrera is practically hot. I can say he’s practically hot based on 20 plate appearances because hotness is, itself, usually illusory; therefore, if we’re talking about a thing that is probably just imaginary, there’s can be no right or wrong amount of cherry-picked data to support it. I’m immune to your sample-size concerns, for I am selling you sugar water!

In the fifth, Dustin Pedroia hit a swinging bunt down the third base line. Cabrera charged and fielded it on a chop, wiggled into a throwing position, and threw Pedroia out by the smallest margin.

There was no wincing, pacing, scowling. Clearly, Miguel Cabrera didn’t get all the way healthy overnight. Opposing pitchers continue to treat him like he’s a broken hitter, pounding him with fastballs away, unafraid that he’ll drive them out. (He almost did Wednesday.) (Also, contrary to a hypothesis I introduced on Effectively Wild, Cabrera isn’t doing his damage on the outside pitches. He’s doing virtually all of his damage on pitches middle-in.) We’ll watch him nervously, aware that any movement might be his last, and aware even that he might show up limping again at the park tomorrow. But he seems to have crossed the line that separates bad players from very good ones, if not the line that separates very good ones from MVPs.

  • Relevant way of looking at this game:
  • Over the past three seasons, Doug Fister has baseball’s sixth-best ERA+. He had a better FIP this year than Yu Darvish. You could make the case that he would be Boston’s best pitcher by plenty. He’s now made seven postseason starts, and he has a 2.06 ERA.

  • Also a relevant way of looking at this game:

Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here

Related Content:  Boston Red Sox,  ALCS,  Detroit Tigers,  Miguel Cabrera

2 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

DetroitDale

Miguel Cabrera stole a base? If I hadn't seen it with my own eyes I would not have believed it. Isn't that like the 5th sign of the apocalypse??

Much has been made of the of the lineup juggling as the spark that brought back the lineup in general and Austin Jackson in particular. I submit that in Jackson's case there's other factors at play. Torii Hunter said in an interview that Ajax had been working in the batting cage on ironing out his swing or something along those lines. When Jackson first came over he was striking out in droves, so the coaches worked with him to take out the leg kick which caused him to keep a level head which caused him to see the ball better and caused the strikeouts to go down and the average up. He went through a big slump during the regular season this year when he was falling back into old habits, and the slump stopped when he straightened out his mechanics again. During the 3 for 30 slump, it looked like Ajax was again sliding into old habits but yesterday, appeared to (as Torii stated) iron that out again. That, not the lineup change is probably what turned him around, though you could argue that the lineup change jarred him in a way that spurred him to get things straightened out.

As to the rest of the offense, did they really get their mojo back because of the lineup shuffle, or did they just take advantage of the weak link in the Sox rotation?

Re: Fister. I commented earlier about how everyone else was forgetting Sanchez, but even I was forgetting about this guy. Much has been made of the edge Verlander and Scherzer have over other teams' 1-2 guys but there's an even bigger gap between Sanchez and Fister and other teams' 3-4 guys.

So can the Tigers win two of three with their three aces going? They couldn't last time around.

Oct 17, 2013 07:01 AM
rating: 0
 
Howler37

They can win if their bullpen doesn't collapse like they did in Game 2.

Oct 17, 2013 08:54 AM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Dollar Sign on the Mus... (10/17)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/16)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/17)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NL... (10/17)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Expert League Auction Recap: CBS NL-Only
Fantasy Article Fantasy Tiered Rankings: Relief Pitchers
Fantasy Article Tale of the Tape: Fernando Rodney vs. Huston...
Fantasy Article Get to Know: Relief Pitcher Prospects
An Agent's Take: How To Get An Autograph Wit...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Shift Happenings
Baseball Therapy: The Thirty-Run Manager

MORE FROM OCTOBER 17, 2013
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Five Preview: ...
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Recap: Do...
Dollar Sign on the Muscle Excerpt
Premium Article Minor League Update: AFL Recap for Games of ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Sweeney Swings a Deal
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Looking Back: Endgame Sle...

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-10-21 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2013-10-18 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Five Recap: Re...
2013-10-18 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2013-10-17 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Four Recap: Ti...
2013-10-17 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
2013-10-16 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game 3 Recap: Red S...
2013-10-16 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 3...
More...

MORE PLAYOFF PROSPECTUS
2013-10-18 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Five Recap: Re...
2013-10-17 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Five Preview: ...
2013-10-17 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Recap: Do...
2013-10-17 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Four Recap: Ti...
2013-10-16 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game 3 Recap: Red S...
2013-10-16 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Four Recap: Ca...
2013-10-16 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Five Preview: ...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2013-10-17 - Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game Five Preview: ...