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October 17, 2013

Fantasy Freestyle

Looking Back: Endgame Sleepers

by Bret Sayre


Welcome to the second installment of “Bret looks back on his favorite 2013 columns and grades himself.” Last week, I took a look at my 10 bold predictions based on April’s small samples, but today we’ll go even further back in the time machine.

My favorite column to write every year looks at my favorite endgame sleepers just as Spring Training is coming to a close. In the past I’ve stopped at 10, but this year I turned the dial all the way up to 20—putting the spotlight on players in leagues of varying depths.

As you can tell by the list below, it runs the gamut from very strong picks to almost laughable ones (okay, you can remove the almost in one or two choice examples). And as a reminder, any players who were either in the top-250 in ADP or had such late spring helium that they were almost certain to go in that space during your upcoming draft, were not eligible—which is why I couldn’t include two of my biggest loves, Alex Cobb, and Shelby Miller, in anything other than the introduction.

Enough with the niceties, on to the continued judgment:

12-Team Mixed Leagues

Edwin Jackson, SP, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 273)

  • What I Said: “It hasn’t been a straight line, but E-Jax has moved his strikeout rate in the right direction ever since hitting the big leagues, with his 21.3 percent mark in 2012 setting a career high. He also has not posted either a FIP or an xFIP of 4.00 or higher since 2009. He may never ‘break out,’ but he doesn’t need to in order to return value at this price.”
  • What Happened: Well, he didn’t post a FIP or xFIP higher than 4.00 this season, but that didn’t stop him from laying waste to fantasy teams in stretches. However, being a true Edwin Jackson apologist, I’ll be right back in there buying again next season. Just try and stop me.
  • Grade: C-

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<< Previous Article
Premium Article Playoff Prospectus: AL... (10/16)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Car... (10/15)
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Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The... (10/18)
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Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (10/17)

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