This year’s Rule 5 Draft was like the winter meetings as a whole, in that
it wound up being almost completely a non-event. While previous Rule 5
efforts have seen teams snag some real prospects, Ken Phelps All-Stars, or
pitchers who suddenly found an extra 8 mph on their fastball change teams,
this year’s big Rule 5 name was a football player, Ricky Williams.
Granted, Williams isn’t just any old football player: he won the Heisman
Trophy this year, broke Tony Dorsett‘s Division I-A rushing record
(although the new record may fall again next year), and is widely expected
to be a top, if not the top, pick in this year’s NFL draft. So Montreal’s
selection of Williams with the fourth overall pick and subsequent sale of
Williams to Texas for $100,000 did merit headlines. However, all the
attention obscured the irrelevance of the deal: Williams has been a
terrible baseball player, boasting neither plate discipline nor power, and
the Expos only made $50,000 on the deal, enough to pay for about a week of
Vlad Guerrero. That seems pretty nickel-and-dime, and you have to wonder if
Jim Beattie couldn’t find better ways to spend his time.
The Red Sox drafted a possible member of their starting rotation when they
grabbed the touted but oft-injured lefty Joel Adamson from Oakland, who had
just signed him away from Arizona earlier in the day. Adamson broke through
with a solid 1997 as a swingman for Milwaukee (3.54 ERA, 19 BB/56 K in 76.1
IP), and he gives the Sox either a solid long LH reliever or a
high-risk/high-return starter for the fifth slot.
The Twins made the bizarre selection of Josue (no, that’s not a typo)
Espada, a shortstop from the Oakland chain who mimics Luis Castillo at the
plate: lots of walks and nothing else of note. With Pat Meares mercifully
excised, Espada may get a shot at the starting shortstop job, but that’s
hardly an improvement or the type of move the Twins need to make at this
point.
Two other shortstops worth mentioning found new addresses in the Rule 5
draft. Benji Gil, the onetime Texas starter, went to Florida in the
Triple-A portion, meaning that he has to spend the year at or above
Triple-A. This was one of the day’s most sensible selections, as the Fish
need someone or something to fill in if (or just as likely, once) Alex
Gonzalez fails or gets hurt in his rookie season in the majors. David Lamb,
the disappointing Oriole prospect, went to Tampa Bay, and while he faces a
tight infield-scrub situation in the Juicer, he has a higher upside than
Miguel Cairo.
Few other names of note changed hands. The Marlins picked up Alberto
Blanco, an interesting LH reliever with decent velocity, from the Astros
with the top overall pick; Blanco is easily the most likely Rule 5er to
stick this year. Eric Ludwick, whose Marlin career stalled out because of
numerous freak injuries, went to Toronto by way of Detroit, and he’s a
great sleeper in the Toronto pen or even as their fifth starter. The
Cardinals picked up Alberto Castillo, the former Met catcher, to serve as
one of Eli Marrero‘s backups, while the A’s picked up longtime BP favorite
Eric Stuckenschneider, who drew 88 walks between Double-A and Triple-A last
year, but is already 27. The Pirates drafted middling Met reliever Scott
Sauerbeck, who could easily find himself at the back of the Bucs’ pen this
year. The Arizona Wildcats’ starting quarterback, Keith Smith, found
himself selected in the draft, this time by Toronto in the Double-A
portion. Although he was technically still Detroit’s property, he hadn’t
played since 1996.
Finally, in the day’s biggest oddity, the Dodgers used a Triple-A round
pick to take Ryan Jaroncyk, the Mets’ #1 overall pick in 1995. Jaroncyk was
a slick-fielding, non-hitting shortstop who actually retired last year,
giving the team back most of his signing bonus in the process. What the
Dodgers expect from this pick is anyone’s guess.
Hitters (Averages: .260 BA, .330 OBA, .420 SA, .260 EQA)
Alberto Castillo C Bats R Born 1976 Age 23 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1997 Norfolk Int 83 17 0 0 1 15 9 5 1 0 66 .205 .327 .241 .212 1997 NY Mets NL 59 12 1 0 0 9 4 3 0 1 48 .203 .309 .220 .184 1998 Norfolk Int 49 8 0 0 1 10 4 3 0 0 41 .163 .305 .224 .194 Josue Espada SS Bats R Born 1976 Age 23 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1996 So Oregn Nwn 55 9 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 46 .164 .207 .218 .105 1996 W Michgn Mid 76 18 2 0 0 10 7 5 1 1 59 .237 .326 .263 .212 1997 Visalia Cal 439 99 4 1 3 59 49 26 23 9 349 .226 .317 .260 .214 1998 Huntsvil Sou 161 38 5 1 1 21 18 12 5 3 126 .236 .324 .298 .224 Benji Gil SS Bats R Born 1973 Age 26 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1996 Oklahoma AA 291 60 13 1 5 23 21 19 4 5 236 .206 .264 .309 .193 1997 Texas AL 313 68 13 2 5 18 20 22 1 2 247 .217 .260 .319 .193 1998 Calgary PCL 447 84 14 2 9 36 28 26 8 3 366 .188 .248 .289 .181 David Lamb INF Bats B Born 1976 Age 23 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1996 High Des Cal 447 78 13 1 2 35 15 15 2 3 372 .174 .234 .221 .135 1997 Frederck Car 250 58 14 1 2 20 22 18 2 1 193 .232 .289 .320 .211 1997 Bowie Eas 268 83 16 2 3 28 37 35 0 0 185 .310 .375 .418 .279 1998 Bowie Eas 239 65 7 1 2 24 24 23 1 2 176 .272 .338 .335 .238 1998 Rochestr Int 177 49 5 1 1 15 17 16 1 4 132 .277 .333 .333 .230 Eric Stuckenschneider OF Bats R Born 1972 Age 27 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1996 Savannah SAL 503 111 11 2 9 73 56 40 17 9 401 .221 .319 .304 .226 1997 Vero Bch Fla 461 97 13 1 4 75 53 29 15 6 370 .210 .321 .269 .218 1998 SanAnton Tex 282 60 9 3 2 33 28 18 8 2 224 .213 .295 .287 .210 1998 Albuquer PCL 260 62 7 4 5 35 34 25 13 6 204 .238 .329 .354 .245 Ricky Williams OF Bats R Born 1977 Age 22 Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB R RBI SB CS Out BA OBA SA EQA 1996 Piedmont SAL 273 49 4 1 3 13 9 9 7 4 228 .179 .217 .234 .134 1997 Piedmont SAL 137 25 4 0 1 9 7 5 4 2 114 .182 .233 .234 .148 1998 Batavia NYP 53 12 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 43 .226 .241 .226 .139
Pitchers (Averages: 4.00 ERA, 9.00 H/9, 1.00 HR/9, 3.00 BB/9, 6.00 K/9, 1.00 KWH)
Joel Adamson Throws L Age 27 Year Team Lge IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KWH PERA 1996 Charlott Int 101.3 110 39 14 29 72 3.46 6 5 9.77 1.24 2.58 6.39 1.22 4.35 1996 Florida NL 11.3 20 9 1 6 6 7.15 0 1 15.88 0.79 4.76 4.76 0.22 7.15 1997 Tucson PCL 31.0 40 15 4 8 18 4.35 1 2 11.61 1.16 2.32 5.23 0.76 5.23 1997 Milwauke AL 78.7 75 29 12 16 54 3.32 5 4 8.58 1.37 1.83 6.18 1.82 3.66 1998 Arizona NL 23.3 27 19 5 10 13 7.33 1 2 10.41 1.93 3.86 5.01 0.47 5.40 Alberto Blanco Throws L Age 23 Year Team Lge IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KWH PERA 1996 Quad Cit Mid 44.0 56 30 5 15 40 6.14 1 4 11.45 1.02 3.07 8.18 1.43 5.11 1997 Kissimme Fla 107.7 112 56 6 50 71 4.68 5 7 9.36 0.50 4.18 5.93 0.68 3.85 1998 Kissimme Fla 10.3 16 11 2 3 9 9.58 0 1 13.94 1.74 2.61 7.84 1.27 6.97 1998 Jackson Tex 56.7 74 41 10 24 47 6.51 2 4 11.75 1.59 3.81 7.46 0.93 5.88 Eric Ludwick Throws R Age 27 Year Team Lge IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KWH PERA 1996 Louisvil AmA 60.7 62 24 4 27 62 3.56 4 3 9.20 0.59 4.01 9.20 1.72 3.86 1997 Edmonton PCL 18.3 23 6 1 4 16 2.95 1 1 11.29 0.49 1.96 7.85 2.09 4.42 1997 Louisvil AmA 78.7 78 32 7 28 68 3.66 5 4 8.92 0.80 3.20 7.78 1.59 3.66 1997 Oakland AL 25.3 31 19 6 15 14 6.75 1 2 11.01 2.13 5.33 4.97 0.32 6.04 1998 Charlott Int 26.0 29 17 1 13 20 5.88 1 2 10.04 0.35 4.50 6.92 0.80 4.15 1998 Florida NL 34.0 47 28 8 16 25 7.41 1 3 12.44 2.12 4.24 6.62 0.62 6.62 Scott Sauerbeck Throws L Age 27 Year Team Lge IP H ER HR BB K ERA W L H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 KWH PERA 1996 St Lucie Fla 91.0 140 50 2 35 42 4.95 4 6 13.85 0.20 3.46 4.15 0.27 5.54 1996 Binghmtn Eas 44.0 62 28 4 13 22 5.73 2 3 12.68 0.82 2.66 4.50 0.45 5.52 1997 Binghmtn Eas 124.0 178 96 14 53 61 6.97 3 11 12.92 1.02 3.85 4.43 0.30 5.95 1998 Norfolk Int 158.0 200 79 7 68 92 4.50 8 10 11.39 0.40 3.87 5.24 0.47 4.73
For those of you who noticed, PERA is a new stat we’re introducing. As Clay
explains it, "PERA is ‘peripheral ERA’: it is the ERA that one would expect
from the pitcher’s innings, hits, home runs, and walks. It is usually quite
close to the actual ERA, although for some pitchers (check out Kerry Wood)
the difference can be extreme. In most cases, PERA functions as a sort of
luck indicator: PERA is actually a better indicator of next year’s ERA than
this year’s ERA is."
Thank you for reading
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