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August 28, 2013

BP Unfiltered

2013 Hitter Uncertainty

by Colin Wyers


As an aside to today's article on uncertainty in measuring offense, here's the top 20 in batting runs above average in 2013, plus the uncertainty in the offensive production:

NAME

BRAA

STDERR

Miguel Cabrera

66.8

6.4

Mike Trout

65.6

6.3

Chris Davis

55.4

6.2

Joey Votto

39.7

6.1

Paul Goldschmidt

37.0

6.1

Andrew McCutchen

36.6

6.0

David Ortiz

33.1

5.7

Robinson Cano

33.0

6.1

Adrian Beltre

31.9

6.2

Evan Longoria

30.9

6.0

Edwin Encarnacion

29.9

6.1

David Wright

29.2

5.6

Matt Carpenter

29.0

6.2

Yasiel Puig

26.8

4.6

Shin-Soo Choo

26.0

5.8

Kyle Seager

25.7

5.9

Jayson Werth

25.6

5.1

Josh Donaldson

24.9

5.8

Carlos Santana

24.8

5.6

Buster Posey

24.8

5.7

That gives us an estimate of a 55% probability that Cabrera has been a better hitter (relative to average) than Trout.

Colin Wyers is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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<< Previous Article
Overthinking It: A Sea... (08/27)
<< Previous Column
BP Unfiltered: The Sig... (08/26)
Next Column >>
BP Unfiltered: Would M... (08/29)
Next Article >>
Feature Focus: Sortabl... (08/28)

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