CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Base... (08/26)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Free A... (08/23)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: What W... (08/30)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (08/26)

August 26, 2013

Pebble Hunting

Five Myths About the Angels' Impending Shakeup

by Sam Miller


So now it’s somewhat official: Somebody on the Angels is going to get fired after this season. “Where’s your money?” a friend asked me the other day. Shoot. I really don’t know.

What I think I do know is that a lot of the assumptions people have about where your money should be are wrong. So these are five myths about the Angels’ impending shakeup.

Myth 1. Somebody is going to be fired because the Angels’ long-term future has been so badly messed up.
If somebody gets fired it’ll be for one/two/three of three reasons: The Angels have been a big-market team that missed the playoffs four years in a row; the Angels invested everything they had in these past two years to try to make the playoffs and managed only to get worse; and next year’s team, if this year’s team is a good indication, might suck. The fact that the Angels’ long-term outlook is darkened by a barren farm system and backloaded contracts is, indeed, a significant concern. But if the Angels were on pace to win 98 games this year, the Angels would not be firing their manager or their GM. They would be planning to take future problems on in the future. So, here’s the equation:

Bad 2013 + Horrible Outlook = Firings
Good 2013 + Horrible Outlook = No Firings

Cancel the Horrible Outlook out of each equation and you’re left with the truth: This isn’t about the 10th year of the Albert Pujols deal, and it isn’t about the fact that the Angels have given away first-round draft picks like mid-2000s Brian Sabean at a baby shower. It’s about right now.

Myth 2. Somebody is going to get fired because the Angels signed Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton to ludicrous contracts.
Oh, certainly you can argue they’re both irresponsible contracts. Albert Pujols, for instance, is still owed more ($212 million) than Clayton Kershaw is reportedly even asking for. He has had his OBP and home run totals drop in five consecutive years; do you know how many players have done that in major league history? Good, put the answer in the comments. And Hamilton is owed $106 million for the next four years, including $32 million in each of the final two. How about this game:

  • Player A (it’s Josh Hamilton, in 2013): .233/.289/.421
  • Player B (it’s Vernon Wells, in 2012): .230/.279/.403

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

32 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Base... (08/26)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Free A... (08/23)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: What W... (08/30)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (08/26)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Aug...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Week 21
Premium Article What You Need to Know: August 21, 2014
Pebble Hunting: You Lie!
Eyewitness Accounts: August 21, 2014
Premium Article Skewed Left: Saber Seminar One Year From Now
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and ...

MORE FROM AUGUST 26, 2013
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: DeJesus, and the Prodi...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, August 26
The Week in Quotes: August 19-25
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Hanging in There
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Roy Halladay Returns
Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framin...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: August 26,...

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-08-29 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-08-28 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-08-27 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-08-26 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Five Myths About the Angels'...
2013-08-26 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-08-23 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Free Agent Alternate History
2013-08-23 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
More...

MORE PEBBLE HUNTING
2013-09-06 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Mike Trout vs. David Price
2013-09-04 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Most Depressing Age-27 S...
2013-08-30 - Pebble Hunting: What We Rap About When We Ra...
2013-08-26 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Five Myths About the Angels'...
2013-08-23 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Free Agent Alternate History
2013-08-21 - Pebble Hunting: Appreciating Andrelton Simmo...
2013-08-19 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: My Book Report on a Video of...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2013-09-26 - Premium Article Painting the Black: The Angels' Demons