August 15, 2013
Mo Moves Down
Welcome to another installment of The Bullpen Report. As a reminder, closers are rated in five tiers from best to worst. The tiers are a combination of my opinion of a pitcher’s ability, the likelihood that he will pick up saves, and his security in the job. For example, a pitcher in the third tier might have better skills than a pitcher in the second tier, but if the third tier pitcher is new to the job or has blown a couple of saves in the last week this factors into the ranking as well.
Tier 1 – Money in the Bank
Melancon has mostly picked up where the injured Jason Grilli left off. He hadn’t allowed a run in eight appearances before last night’s unearned run. While the strikeout rate isn’t dominant, everything else is.
Reed blows a save, and I either move him down or leave him here and get clobbered for leaving a pitcher with so many blown saves in the top tier. Reed’s strong peripherals keep moving him back into the top tier. Neither Nate Jones nor Matt Lindstrom should be viewed as a threat right now, though if the team were going to make a change, I’d prefer Jones.
Chapman’s last two weeks are an example of why I loathe moving pitchers like him out of the top tier. Chapman has struck out over 20 batters per nine innings in the last two weeks. Small-sample-size caveats with relievers are always significant, but Chapman’s dominance makes him nearly impossible to keep out of the upper echelon.
Tier 2 – Solid and Reliable
I had to do it.
In one sense, moving Rivera down for any reason is an absurdist exercise for the greatest closer ever, or at least the greatest closer in the era of one-inning saves. On the other hand, blowing three saves in a row cannot simply be ignored, and my ratings do lean heavily on recency bias. Rivera moves down, even though his job is as safe as any closer’s in the game.
Farquhar has been absolutely dominant since taking over from Tom Wilhelmsen. His performance alone is worthy of the top tier, but I would like to see another week or two of Farquhar pitching at an elite level before moving him up to the top rung.
Notwithstanding last night’s shaky save, Soriano has righted the ship after some subpar outings a few weeks back. He has likely put a little breathing room between him and Tyler Clippard and should be safe in the ninth for the time being.
It is anticipated that Rafael Betancourt will be back this weekend. Rex Brothers might hang on for another save or two, but Betancourt is expected to get the job back at some point.
Tier 3 – Yeah…You’re…Good
Based on my recency bias, perhaps Street should rank higher. Since July 1, he hasn’t allowed a home run and is striking out well over a batter an inning. He has been extremely effective and maybe belongs with some of the arms above given that his job is safe. However, YTD performance is part of the rankings, and Street’s overall numbers still aren’t very good.
Tier 4 Uninspiring Choices
Like Farquhar, Hawkins could be rated a little higher if he had been in the role for a few weeks longer. There is talk that Bobby Parnell might miss the rest of the season; with the way Hawkins is going, there is no reason to revert to the committee that manager Terry Collins was discussing at the onset of Parnell’s injury.
Tier 5 – On the Bubble
After speculating last week that there seemed to be no indications that Ernesto Frieri might lose his job, the Angels decided to yank him from the closer role. Dane de a Rosa steps in and will serve as the closer for the time being. De la Rosa has been the Angels best reliever this season, although he doesn’t have the overpowering strikeout percentage you might look for in a closer. De la Rosa should be picked up in all deeper mixed and only formats.
At 27, Chia-Jen Lo is old for a prospect, but he missed a significant chunk of time rehabbing a partially torn UCL he suffered in 2011. Lo picked up a four-out save on Tuesday and could easily capitalize on a thin bullpen to close for the rest of the season. Lo’s two-pitch combination of a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider serves him better in the bullpen than it would in the rotation. I included Josh Fields in this space last week, but don’t be surprised if Fields isn’t a factor this year and Lo is.
Holland is entrenched in Kansas City, so it’s unlikely that Kelvin Herrera or Tim Collins would supplant him. This is the time of the year in start-limit leagues when you should start considering relievers with high whiff totals. Herrera in particular fits the bill. The control problems that plagued him prior to his demotion to the minors are mostly behind him, and hitters have a hard time catching up on his stuff. Collins is on the other end of the spectrum; he is someone I would really avoid unless I was desperate for strikeouts. His walk rate is terrible, and Collins doesn’t keep the ball on the ground enough to stay away from the potentially disastrous inning. If you’re trolling for whiffs, Herrera and not Collins is the play here.
Jordan Walden has missed most of this week with a minor injury and should be back this coming weekend. His injury has put the spotlight on David Carpenter. The converted catcher is dominating in late relief with a power fastball/power slider combination that has been blowing hitters away of late. His improved command has led to some terrific numbers. Craig Kimbrel is money and Walden has also been terrific, but Carpenter adds another quality arm to a deep pen.
Luis Avilan continues to have a relatively high ownership percentage (five percent in CBS leagues) but isn’t a guy I’d want to own, even in a super-deep league. Yes, he has been one of the better middle relief earners all season long in terms of Roto earnings, but Avilan’s low whiff total combined with his extremely low BABIP makes him a risky proposition.
On the $ Values
Dollar values in the charts below represent my 2012 dollar valuations for 5x5 “only” Rotisserie-style formats using 2013 player statistics. These values use a Standings Gain Points (or SGP) model that is similar to the SGP model used in Baseball Prospectus’ Player Forecast Manager.
Earnings Through Games of Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Closer Earnings to Date
Top Reliever Earnings, Non-Closers