July 24, 2003

Lies, Damned Lies

Hitting the Wall

by Nate Silver

OK, so it might not have been the most controversial thing he's said this month--even our intrepid Derek Zumsteg didn't dare sweat out this Dusty Baker gem. But the Cubbie manager also made the claim that older players fare better in the second half. Here, in his own words:

"When I was with the Giants, we were a second-half team because we were a stronger team and in better shape the second half of the season than other teams. A lot of veteran teams tend to be like that. Young teams and players start well, where older players tend to find their swing and keep it together once they find it. [The Cubs are] a veteran team."

Dusty's claim has at least some grounding in his own experience--under his management, the veteran-laden Giants were markedly better in the second half in both 2002 and 2000, and marginally better in 2001. (Over the course of his entire tenure, the record is far more ambiguous: in Dusty's 10 seasons at the helm, the Giants played .535 ball before the first of July, and .546 after it). While the Cubs' second half didn't get off to a great start with the injuries to Corey Patterson and Mark Prior, it'd sure be nice to see them still in the race come September. The acquisitions of Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton have the Wrigley faithful in a frenzy; will Baker prove to be a sage or a charlatan?

Not to ruin the fun or anything, but this is a testable claim. By comparing the first and second half performances of players of various ages, we can see which ones really perform best down the stretch. A few simple rules:

1. Using all seasons from 1999 through 2001, we'll compare each player's BA, OBP and SLG before July 1* with the same numbers after it. (*As you've no doubt figured out, the All-Star break isn't really in the middle of the season anymore; the July 1 date works better).

2. We'll tally the results based on a player's age as of July 1 of the season in question.

3. The results will be weighted based on the minimum number of plate appearances that a player accumulated in a given half of the season.

So, for example, if Rafael Palmeiro hits .295 in 350 plate appearances before the break, and .275 in 300 plate appearances after it, we'll take the difference between the two figures (-.020) and weight it by 300, the lesser of the two PA numbers.

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