CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Happy Thanksgiving! Regularly Scheduled Articles Will Resume Monday, December 1

<< Previous Article
What Scouts Are Saying... (07/18)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Mailbag: Getti... (07/12)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: Fill... (07/26)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitch... (07/19)

July 19, 2013

Fantasy Mailbag

The Trade Market Heats Up

by BP Fantasy Staff

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Question: I wanted to get your thoughts on Ian Kennedy. I'm in a 10-team dynasty league and it would be so therapeutic to drop him (there doesn't seem to be much of a trade market at all for him). I could use his spot to stream guys like A.J. Griffin, Felix Doubront, etc., or take a shot on a youngster for the future like Jarred Cosart (I didn't get to see his start but the stat line looked pretty good; I'm sure Jason watched it, so maybe you could tell me if he looked impressive or if the Rays just had an off night). Basically, is Kennedy better than he is pitching, or is this who he is now?

Answer: I love the guy, but it's time to move on in a 10-teamer. There are just sure to be better options.

Question: I'm in a 14-team, 5x5 dynasty league with OBP instead of AVG, QS instead of W and holds-plus-saves instead of saves. We have 33-man rosters and a $300 auction budget. I've been in the bottom third all year so I made some trades and waiver moves to build for the future and I've freed up a bunch of money for the auction. I traded away Cliff Lee and Lance Lynn for some cheap bats, thereby picking up Noah Syndergaard and Robert Stephenson (both $1).

I need to drop some guys to clear up roster spots. Please rank who you would drop first: Ackley $8, Rutledge $14, Chisenhall $3, Cozart $4. I am leaning Cozart and Rutledge. Current IF and SP options: C. Carter, Sandoval, Gyorko, Tulo, Seager, X. Bogaets. SPs (all $4 or less): H. Bailey, Iwakuma, J. Parker, D. Holland, Lester, Wacha, C. Archer, A.J. Griffin. Or I could drop one of these RPs, but I'm pretty weak here already: H. Street $7, Benoit $1, A. Bailey $1, Axford $6 and B League $1.

Answer: You have to drop Rutledge and Ackley here. They’re the most expensive ones as well as the least productive of the group.

Question: I am trying to acquire Darvish in a league that began this season where you purchase the contract length of a player. He is contracted until 2017 and will cost me $38 of a $400 cap, and his salary will increase by $2 in 2014, $4 in 2015, $6 in 2016, and $8 in 2017 ($58 at the end of his contract).

I currently have Kershaw at $50. I just traded Fister at $17 until 2015 for Zach Lee and Travis d’Arnaud to free up some salary.

My other SP are:

  • Travis Wood at $2 until 2017
  • Wade Davis at $5 until 2017
  • Arroyo at $2 for this year
  • Lackey at $1 until 2015
  • Luebke at $4 until 2016
  • Alex Cobb at $5 until 2017

My minor leaguers (all at $1) who will see their salaries increase as above, as they are now up:

  • Eraser until 2018
  • Gerrit Cole until 2018
  • Archer until 2018

My minor leaguers who are not expected up too soon and will increase by $1 per year until they are called up:

They Darvish owner wants young pitching (specifically Cole and Cody Allen) of which I feel I have enough to give up. I have about $40 of salary cap room.Is it crazy to give up Cole and, say, Cobb plus Cody Allen for Darvish? I am taking on all salary and all increases over the contract length.

At the initial auction, bidding was crazy and I probably overpaid for Kershaw. When the Dodgers extend him, I can choose to take that extension on or let him go back to the pool. Obviously I could trade him, but there is not a lot of cash out there for competing teams this year.

If I let Kershaw go after next year, I feel my pitching is sufficient, especially if I get Darvish.

This is my first keeper league, and I suppose I want to get an idea that I am on the right track.

Answer: Cole/Cobb/Allen isn't crazy now in a flags-fly-forever mode. It may hurt two years from now, but I have no problem making that trade with 2013/2014 in mind.

Question: I've got a trade offered to me that's big and enticing. My main reason for saying "yes" would be my worries that Pujols is in his decline phase.

Relevant info: it's not a keeper league. We count walks and holds, so Cook is very helpful. Lawrie will soon be my MI to replace Escobar, or I can play Yunel (or, if things break right, Profar).

What do you think? As McCutchen and Goldschmidt are about even, it's really a question of whether Pence's output is close to Pujols’, which is really what I'm wondering about.

Answer: I have to stay put on this one, as I'm not even slightly swayed either way. Seems more like a name swap than a productive-stat swap.

Question: Please rank these starting pitchers for the rest of the season: Jacob Turner, Tony Cingrani, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Jeremy Hefner.

Answer: Nolasco, Cingrani, Hefner, Turner, Johnson (who has looked all sorts of bad lately)

Question: We are in a league where the keeper system is as follows: First year after a player is drafted, you get to keep the player at the Draft Price. After the first year you have to choose whether to offer 1, 2, or 3 year contracts at $5 per year, but you have to pay that full contract amount each year. For example:

  • Draft Price: $1
  • 1st year: $1 - then afterward sign to 2 year contract
  • 2nd Year: $11
  • 3rd Year: $11
  • 4th Year: Free Agent

So with that in mind—my season is done this year, and I am trying to unload any player I can for future assets. I am currently weighing three offers:

  • First offer: I give Choo and Hosmer for Medlen $1 (contract decision must be made after this year) and Mauer $10 (draft price)
  • Second: offer: I give Choo and pitcher X (low level) for Anthony Rizzo $1 (contract decision must be made after this year).
  • Third offer: I give Choo and pitcher X or another peice (doesn’t really matter) to a team that has $2 E. Cabrera (contract decision must be made after this year), $2 Logan Morrison (contract decision must be made after this year), Fowler $7 (contract decision must be made after this year), and Cueto $9 (contract decision must be made after this year).

Basically, I am leaning toward Rizzo over Medlen and Mauer, but wondering what combo of the Fowler, Cueto, LoMo, and E. Cabrera group it would take to trump Rizzo? Alternatively, I could take Mauer and Medlen.

Also, separately: What kind of keeper value do you think Profar has for next year? I am getting offered him separately, but I would have to make a contract decision on him and am having so much trouble previewing what to expect from him in the next 2 years

Answer: I prefer delving into offer three out of all of them, but offer two comes in second, as I don't want to contract Medlen, and Mauer still has the issues of durability plus lingering concerns of how long he'll be a catcher (though he has reached the threshold to be a catcher next year).

I prefer ECab, Fowler, LoMo, and Cueto in that order of the trade three. I love Cueto, but I'm nervous about contracting any pitcher, let alone one with some durability concerns of his own. Profar is probably very cheap based on these other prices, so he seems like someone worth giving at least two years to, if not the full three.

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see BP's other articles. You can contact BP by clicking here

Related Content:  Mailbag,  Fantasy

0 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
What Scouts Are Saying... (07/18)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Mailbag: Getti... (07/12)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: Fill... (07/26)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitch... (07/19)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Baltimore Orioles
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: The Ace Chase, the Rays' Face...
Premium Article Daisy Cutter: Jon Lester's New Peers
Premium Article Prospect Mechanics
Moonshot: A New View of Plate Discipline, Pa...
The Lineup Card: Nine of the Worst Baseball ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Yasmany Tomas is a Dia...

MORE FROM JULY 19, 2013
Premium Article Raising Aces: Back to the Futures Game, 2013
Premium Article Overthinking It: When Big Leaguers Go Back t...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Thursday, July...
Premium Article Mid-Season Outliers
Premium Article Painting the Black: White Sox Who Could Be M...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Managing McCutchen
Fantasy Article Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 17

MORE BY BP FANTASY STAFF
2013-08-09 - Fantasy Mailbag: Pulling the Trigger
2013-08-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: Looking Ahead
2013-07-26 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: Filling the Void
2013-07-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: The Trade Market Heats Up
2013-07-12 - Fantasy Mailbag: Getting the Best Deal
2013-06-28 - Fantasy Mailbag: Strategic Thinking
2013-06-21 - Fantasy Mailbag: Stick Through the Slumps?
More...

MORE FANTASY MAILBAG
2013-08-09 - Fantasy Mailbag: Pulling the Trigger
2013-08-02 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: Looking Ahead
2013-07-26 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: Filling the Void
2013-07-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Mailbag: The Trade Market Heats Up
2013-07-12 - Fantasy Mailbag: Getting the Best Deal
2013-06-28 - Fantasy Mailbag: Strategic Thinking
2013-06-21 - Fantasy Mailbag: Stick Through the Slumps?
More...