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June 14, 2013

Fantasy Mailbag

Getting the Big Fish

by BP Fantasy Staff

Question: I am in a very aggressive 20-team SS league. Players are being drafted in Low-A. Minor leaguers may be kept, but they count against the next year’s draft. I got burned this year when I dropped Teheran in the beginning of the season, believing he would never be of value. What do I do now with players like Gallo, Mark Montgomery, and Betances? Will any of them ever make it to the major leagues?

Answer: I like the chances for Gallo and Montgomery to make itand both could have fantasy impact, Gallo as a potential power bat and MM as a potential closer. Betances is pretty much a lost cause at this point. He could end up as an OK reliever eventually, but there's no need to hold onto him for fantasy.

Question: Love the podcast, and the fact you guys go all year makes it even better. Quick trade question in a 16-team 6x6 dynasty league in which you can keep players forever and extra categories are OPS and holds. I was offered Starlin Castro for Nolan Arrenado and Alen Hanson. My current shortstop is Zach Cosart and my MI is Ryan Roberts. I'm in second with a good shot at winning. I have to pull the trigger on this, right? Or does Castro playing like [crap] so far worry you?

Answer: Thanks for the feedback. I’d jump all over that deal and worry about the future later.

Question: I just saw your article and have already committed to the dump early strategy. I'm in a 12-team, AL-only, roto keeper league. I'm trying to build for next season. I want to pick up Archer. Who would you drop Brett Anderson, Justin Grimm, Gausman, or Dylan Bundy? All of them are $1 except for Anderson, who is $6. I'm leaning toward Grimm because I don’t see big upside or a likely spot in Texas' rotation next year.

Answer: Of those four pitchers, I would agree with you that Grimm is the guy to drop. The other three pitchers all have more upside even when you don't salaries/contracts into account, and I think that's what you're looking for. Grimm seems like the kind of pitcher you could drop and get back for $6 or less at your next auction.

Question: I just traded Baez in my dynasty league and need to pick up a player to replace him. It's a 12-team with a seven-spot minor-league roster, so it is pretty shallow. I took a look at Bret's dynasty rankings to see who might be the best pick up but I'd like to hear your thoughts.

Some available that I am considering are (in Bret's May reranking order): Eddie Rosario, Tyler Austin, Casey Kelly, Trevor Story, Lucas Giolito, Yordano Ventura, Rubby De La Rosa, Kyle Crick, Dorssys Paulino, Adalberto Mondesi, and Lewis Brinson.

I understand this is a hefty list. I'm primarily thinking Ventura/Mondesi due to the coverage they have received during the year. I do want someone who might shoot up prospect lists and feel they fit the mold.

Answer: I'd go with de la Rosa from that list followed by your pair. I'm a big fan of Rubby.

Question: I'm in a first-year, 10-team, 5x5 roto keeper league (5 keepers). We have an extra UTIL slot and extra pitcher slot and 225 starts allowed to deepen the league a bit. My team is doing terribly in SB and AVG and I've got Kemp, Austin Jackson, and Kinsler on the DL. I have a potential trade agreed upon that would involve me sending Dom Brown, Patrick Corbin, Joe Nathan, and Emilio Bonifacio for McCutchen and Omar Infante.

Obviously Infante would only be a fill-in until Kinsler is back and would help me in AVG and runs for a bit. He would then split time at MI with Aybar. My pitching is doing great (first or second in all cats except saves) with Wainwright, Scherzer, Anibal, Corbin, and Homer Bailey.

My question is how sustainable do you think Dom Brown's and Patrick Corbin's performances are? I know Brown isn't taking any walks whatsoever, and he's not exactly hitting 400-ft. bombs for his HRs. His BABIP appears sustainable, though. Obviously Corbin is going to regress from his current numbers, but how much of a fall off should I expect? I feel confident in being able to find pitching, but this trade would only leave me with one full-time closer, so I'm not sure if I'm spreading myself too thin to pick up a stud.

Answer: To me, you're paying a big price to fill a need. Have you shopped those pieces around to see what others are willing to pay?

Question: I have a trade question for my 12-team keeper league. We keep 12 guys each year, with a six-man farm (18 guys total). Next year brings three new teams into the league, so I'm all in for this year. It's points-based.

I'm in second place, and I'm not likely to catch the guy in first. I have Shelby Miller but lust for Giancarlo Stanton for my waiver-wire outfield. The guy who has Stanton has been Teflon with trade requests, but he's interested in Miller. This might be my chance to get the big man. With the talent pool getting even shallower next year and a fear that I might not even have Miller for the playoffs if he's on an innings limit, I'm playing for this year. So, would you give up Shelby Miller for Giancarlo Stanton? My other big stud pitchers are Cliff Lee, Latos, and Samardzija, and I think I can add at least one more guy via trade, should I lose Miller.

Answer: I would do that. How many points is first leading by? Still TOOOOOONS of time.

Question: I'm in a 12-team keeper league that uses OBP instead of BA. We keep four guys at their auction price (can be kept forever). I'm in first place, so I'm generally happy with my team. I have a glut of OF (McCutchen, JUpton, Marte, Fowler, Cespedes), but Todd Frazier and Nick Swisher are my 1B.

I've just been offered Prince Fielder and Alex Cobb for Andrew McCutchen. Even though I'm leading the league overall, I'm only fifth in RBI. I'm leading in the steals category by a handful (helped by McC). My top line pitchers have been fine (Wainwright, Anibal, Burnett, Lance Lynn). The guy I'd drop is Tazawa of the BoSox. Getting Fielder to lock down 1B and RBI in enticing, but I do love McCutchen.

Thoughts for both this year and future? (One other wrinkle is McC's keeper price is $29 and Prince's is $47.) Another thought is making a counteroffer of McCutchen and A.J. Burnett for Fielder and Latos to see if I can get a slightly better arm.

Answer: I actually really like the deal he offered. You're getting a great arm to make up for the difference in keeper prices - though keeper prices shouldn't be a major concern as you make a title run.

Question: 14-team keeper—Wright ($27, $30 next year), Hughes ($8), and Helton ($8) for Holliday ($38), Porcello ($1, $2 next year), and Morneau ($12)

Answer: The slight, and we mean slight, winner in that deal is Side B. Good luck!

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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<< Previous Column
Fantasy Mailbag: Hard ... (06/07)
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Fantasy Mailbag: Stick... (06/21)
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