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June 6, 2013

BP Unfiltered

Dissecting the Draft: Between 1st and 2nd Round

by Nick J. Faleris

Updated 9:40 pm EST -- The San Francisco Giants pop Christian Arroyo with the 25th overall selection, likely on a pre-draft deal, which further removes a middle-infield target of ours. That adds a greater incentive for us to nab Unroe if he is available in the 2nd at the 45th overall pick. If Unroe is off the board, we will likely punt our middle-infielder selection until later in the draft and look for a better fit-for-value for the early second round.

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This is a quick supplement to the Dissecting the Draft series, stepping through some quick thoughts as to our target type for the second round. Because the second round is folded up into Day 1 this year, this less of an opportunity to game plan -- particularly as relates to players dropping for signability reasons or otherwise. Here is the quick and dirty on our first round selection and general thoughts relating to our second round strategy.

1st Round

In this morning's piece we highlighted five targets we were focusing on for our first round pick:

Tier 1
1. Clint Frazier

Tier 2
2. Kohl Stewart
3. Braden Shipley
4. Trey Ball
5. Dominic Smith

Frazier and Stewart came off the board prior to our slot at seventh overall, leaving Shipley, Ball, and Smith. We'll flesh it out a little more in the piece for tomorrow, but essentially this decision came down to which pick fit best into our overall goals for this draft. Our selection was Dominic Smith (full scouting report here). Smith can be an impact bat at a corner -- something we are lacking in the lower levels of our "shadow system". He is a plus makeup kid that is highly coachable and eager to put in work. He should adjust well to pro ball and it would not be surprise if he turned out to be the best overall bat in the draft class when all is said and done.

2nd Round

We've got some time now--37 picks to be exact--to figure out what we would like to do with our second round pick. A lot will depend on what happens during those 37 picks. If the right college arm falls to us, that could be the pick. However, there is a chance we could sign Smith at a bit of a discount, which would give us some room to go after a HS arm that drops and a HS position player that drops, in each case in the third, fourth, or fifth round.

The best case right now might be for one of our prep infield targets to be available to us in the early-2nd round. That would allow us to utilize the next three or four picks for some combination of a college arm, prep or college catcher, another infielder and perhaps a high upside over-slot high school arm.

Two candidates for selection in the second or third round would be Riley Unroe (SS, Desert Ridge HS (Mesa, AZ)) and Christian Arroyo (MIF/C, Hernando HS (Brooksfield, FL)). I think it's unlikely Unroe lasts to the third round, while Arroyo could due to a little more uncertainty as to his ultimate position (though most would agree he'll be up-the-middle in some capacity--be it at shortstop, second base, or behind the plate).

It would be intriguing to roll the dice on Ryan Boldt (OF, Red Wing HS (Red Wing, MN)), who missed most almost all of the spring with a torn meniscus and otherwise graded out as a mid-first rounder or a bit higher, but that might stand in the way of our obtaining a quality middle-infielder (in addition to eating up some of the extra money that might be available if Smith signs for a slight discount).

If you haven't taken a quick look at the two "target tables" in the piece linked above, take a peak. They break down the rounds where we see the best potential to land certain player profile types. My guess is that when pick 45 roles around, Unroe will be the pick if he is available. Everything goes out the window, however, if someone unexpectedly falls to us that we'd otherwise expet to be off the board much earlier.

We'll flesh out tonight's two selections, and go into a little more detail as to tomorrow's strategy, with our next feature Dissecting the Draft piece, posting tomorrow.

Nick J. Faleris is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Nick's other articles. You can contact Nick by clicking here

Related Content:  Dissecting The Draft,  Supplement

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