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June 6, 2013

Dissecting the Draft

Three Roads from Which to Choose

by Nick J. Faleris


Over the past six entries in this Dissecting the Draft series, we’ve focused on the first-round selection— seventh overall—in our “shadow draft” in order to lay the foundation for an overarching strategy. We first identified 14 potential targets and broke them down into tiers. After examining each target in greater detail, we arrived at the below breakdown, consisting of three Tier 1 targets and nine Tier 2 targets. We have removed from consideration two of our 14 targets due to injury.

The below lists are arranged by preference based on Adjusted Overall Future Potential—a culmination of scouting grades for each player, adjusted for certain additional factors.

Tier 1
1. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University | Scouting Report
2. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University | Scouting Report
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Loganville, GA) | Scouting Report

Tier 2
1. Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X (Houston, TX) | Scouting Report
2. Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada | Scouting Report
3. Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle HS (New Castle, IN) | Scouting Report
4. Kris Bryant, OF/3B, University of San Diego | Scouting Report
5a. Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas | Scouting Report
5b. Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Serra HS (Los Angeles, CA) | Scouting Report
6. Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Covington, WA) | Scouting Report
7. JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS (Lakewood, CA) | Scouting Report
8. Jon Denney, C, Yukon HS (Yukon, OK) | Scouting Report

Our final step before Day 1 of the draft is to chop up this list and break it down such that we are left with distinct courses of actions that will begin with this first selection and lead to a particular strategy for the remainder of our later round selections. We’ll accomplish this by (1) considering which players are likely to be off the board in the first six picks ahead of our slot, (2) examining the overall landscape of the draft class, (3) examining any “wants” for our organization in our early selections, and (4) grouping our remaining targets into profile types and examining whether any particular profile types set us up to better leverage our options later in the draft while obtaining as many “wants” as possible.

Likely Off the Board?
This is a difficult exercise, as an unexpected pick can cause ripples that drastically affect the order in which players are selected. For our purposes, we’re looking at four player types—(1) players almost certain to be gone when we pick, (2) players 50/50 or better to be gone when we pick, (3) players with a decent chance to be gone when we pick (have been credibly tied to a team ahead of us as a potential favorite), and (4) players likely to be available when we pick.

Players in Group (1) will be removed from our analysis, and to the extent it’s a Tier 1 talent that ends up dropping to us, we’ll simply grab him and reassess the rest of our strategy between Day 1 and Day 2. Between Group 1 and our remaining targets, the hope is that we have seven options that excite us, which gets us close to the point where we can make a selection with confidence while avoiding the need to second-guess our options leading up to our selection.

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<< Previous Article
Draft Coverage (06/06)
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Premium Article Dissecting the Draft: ... (06/04)
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Premium Article On the Beat: Potential... (06/06)

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