CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Futures Guide 2014 is Now Available in Paperback and Three E-book Formats.

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (05/29)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pi... (05/24)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: Every ... (05/31)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Th... (05/29)

May 29, 2013

Pebble Hunting

A Week of Watching Eric Hosmer

by Sam Miller


On Sunday, a baseball broadcaster informed me (and you and everyone we know) that a player on the Kansas City Royals entered the game 10 for his previous 28. “That’s a .357 average, so he’s coming,” I was told.

Eric Hosmer hasn’t done much this year, and his inability to take the great leap forward is a big reason why Kansas City’s go-for-it plan has disappointed thus far. But a .357 average, that’s pretty high, and if he’s coming, maybe the Royals would have something. It’s easy to buy into Eric Hosmer’s .357 average. It’s just easy to buy into Eric Hosmer, all the time, despite how long it’s been since he was good. He used to be so good, after all. And .357! Maybe that .357 means something.

So I went back and watched a week of Hosmer, from last Tuesday through Memorial Day. That stretch included most of that .357 average, and a couple other games. I wanted to block out what I know about Hosmer—12th overall prospect just 27 months ago, Rookie of the Year contender just 19 months ago, MVP sleeper just 14 months ago, etc.—and imagine that I’m watching a player who just appeared in my world without notice. What would I think about this player? How seriously would I take his potential? Would he stand out? And would that .357 do anything for me?

It’s hard to block out the backstory completely. Hosmer memories kept coming back to me. Furthermore, it’s hard to ding a guy’s swing without wanting to compare it to his swing from two years earlier, when he could hit, so I kept going back to him, too. (I’m also, of course, not a scout, so I’d caveat my impressions by noting that they’re impressions, not evidence.) But I tried.

So here’s what I thought of Eric Hosmer, random guy.

Power: Not evident. This is a hitter who was supposed to be Will Clark with power; we once wrote that “some scouts grade Hosmer's power a perfect 80,” which is true of maybe two players in the minors today. His isolated power this season is 10th lowest among 168 qualifiers, right between Pete Kozma (Hosmer is better) and Denard Span (Hosmer is worse :(). In the week that I watched him, he didn’t reach the warning track, and his lone extra-base hit was a line drive down the line the opposite way.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Kansas City Royals,  Royals,  Eric Hosmer,  Mechanics,  Hitting,  Slump

23 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (05/29)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pi... (05/24)
Next Column >>
Pebble Hunting: Every ... (05/31)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Painting the Black: Th... (05/29)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Painting the Black: Super Twoing
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Meltdown in Minnesota
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, April 18
Premium Article Notes from the Field: A-Ball Notes
Premium Article Raising Aces: Masahiro Tanaka, the Debut Ant...
Baseball Prospectus News: New Stat Reports a...
Premium Article Skewed Left: How Service Time Dictates Top P...

MORE FROM MAY 29, 2013
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Up in Their Grilli
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 29
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Your Annual Reminder: Don...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: May 29, 20...
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: National League, Week Nine
Fantasy Article Sporer Report: Trading Tips
The BP Wayback Machine: In the Slot

MORE BY SAM MILLER
2013-05-31 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, May 31
2013-05-31 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-30 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-29 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Week of Watching Eric Hosm...
2013-05-29 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-28 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 2...
2013-05-24 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pitchers Age at the Plat...
More...

MORE PEBBLE HUNTING
2013-06-05 - Pebble Hunting: The Batting Order Evolution
2013-06-03 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Riddle in a Minor-League B...
2013-05-31 - Pebble Hunting: Every Manager's Face, Part 1
2013-05-29 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: A Week of Watching Eric Hosm...
2013-05-24 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: How Pitchers Age at the Plat...
2013-05-20 - Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Extreme Strikeout Matchups
2013-05-15 - Pebble Hunting: The Starts That Defied FIP
More...