May 17, 2013
Dissecting the Draft
Profiling Prep Arms
Thus far in our series, we have focused on the first selection in this year’s shadow draft, which will include a selection for each of the Red Sox’ first 15 draft picks (for a refresher on the series, review the earlier Dissecting the Draft pieces). In our last installment, we set our preference list for Tier One, which consists of the talents we rate higher than the typical talent we’d expect to have available to us at our draft slot (seventh overall).
1. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University | Scouting Report
2. Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University | Scouting Report
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS (Loganville, GA) | Scouting Report
The next three entries into the series, including this piece, will focus on Tier Two, starting with the high school pitchers (Kohl Stewart and Trey Ball). Next, we’ll step through the up-the-middle players (J.P. Crawford, Reese McGuire, and Jon Denney), followed by the corner players (Kris Bryant and Dominic Smith) and, finally, the college arms (Ryne Stanek, Sean Manaea, and Braden Shipley). As a recap, here are our Tier Two targets in alphabetical order:
1. Trey Ball, LHP/OF, New Castle HS (New Castle, IN) | Scouting Report
2. Kris Bryant, OF/3B, University of San Diego
3. JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS (Lakewood, CA)
4. Jon Denney, C, Yukon HS (Yukon, OK)
5. Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana St. Univ.
6. Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Covington, WA)
7. Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada
8. Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, Serra HS (Los Angeles, CA)
9. Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
10. Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X (Houston, TX) | Scouting Report
Tier Three, formerly consisting of Ryan Boldt (OF, Red Wing HS (Red Wing, MN)), is now vacant, with news that Boldt is likely to be on crutches until at least late June. He will be discussed later in this series as a potential target for our later picks, but at this point does not make sense as a candidate for top 10 overall selection, even as part of a larger strategy.
Clearing the Deck
The first question to ask when considering a high school pitcher at our slot is whether there is any reason to avoid this player type altogether. This is a much more complicated question than we will cover here, though we will address this in detail once we have passed draft day and can open up the series some more. While the following table requires further context, a deeper pool of players, and a more nuanced breakdown in player types in order to serve as firm evidence to support a draft strategy, we are simply looking for comfort that there isn’t something inherently flawed in high school pitcher profiles that should preclude their inclusion in our second tier for a top ten overall selection.