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June 7, 2013

Fantasy Mailbag

Hard Knocks

by BP Fantasy Staff

Question: I'm in a 12-team mixed, and just had Cueto go down again. Other than him, I have Verlander, Samardzija, Cahill, and Cashner, and I stream for the rest of the week if I need to, as we have a 45-inning minimum. I just got offered Matt Wieters and Matt Moore for Buster Posey. I'm thinking about taking it because Wieters should hopefully be on the upswing and Moore should figure out his recent downturn. Was just wondering what you guys thought about it, if I was getting enough for Posey.

Answer: I think it's a fair offer for sure, but I'm not sure I'd do it. If you've got that core and you're streaming otherwise, I think you'll be fine.

Question: I am in the hunt (four teams about 25 pts above the pack) in a 15-team mixed keeper league (OBP and QS replace BA and Ws). I want to flip some potential keepers, but I am not sure how much is reasonable to ask for. We only have 3 keepers, and they are kept at inflation on auction value. In particular I got offered this today:

I give: $16 Granderson, $8 Harvey, $2 Derek Holland
I get: Matt Holliday, David Ortiz, $10 Anibal Sanchez

I need the RBI, but I worry that it will hurt my pitching too much (have Samardzija and Shelby Miller, but with Dickey sucking, Harvey has been the key to my staff). Also, not tons of outfield space (three spots, plus util: Choo, Cargo, Crisp, Aoki), so I may not get that much out of Holliday and Ortiz. I am nervous about giving up Harvey, who could be an ace keeper for years to come. What are your thoughts on this trade and trading guys like Harvey? Should I be asking for more?

Answer: I don't think you get the necessary upgrades to pull the trigger here. The Holliday piece needs to be a first-/second-round bat, not third/fourth.

Question: I'm currently in a 10-team mixer H2H with standard categories on offense and pitching. I wanted to get your opinion on this trade that has just been proposed to me:

I send: Pujols, Peavy, Carlos Santana
I get: Rizzo, V-Mart, David Price

I feel comfortable trading Pujols/Peavy for Rizzo/Price. I do not feel comfortable trading Santana for V-Mart.

Answer: The 2-for-2 you're comfortable with is a big win for you, which is why you're comfortable with it, of course. The Santana/V-Mart piece is your tax for getting Price for a hurt Peavy and that is fair. I like this deal for you, to be honest.

Question: Quick question I can’t stop pondering: I’m in a daily 10-team mixed, two-catcher league, 29-man roster, no DL. I’m in second place, and I need HR and RBI, but I also just lost my man Cueto again. Right now, my bench features Utley, Henderson, Cueto, Werth and Grandal (Lucroy and Perez active). Stephania Bell, the harbinger of injuries, does not have much faith in a timely Utley comeback, but my MI waiver wire is garbage (except Alcides Escobar) and currently occupied by this year’s Ranch, Mr. Matt Carpenter.

Should I leave in Carpenter in MI and cut Utley for for either Niese/Skaggs/Masterson? Should I cut these other bench guys for Niese/Skaggs/Masterson?

Answer: Yeah, I'd try to trade Utley to a bigger believer in him coming back. Otherwise, I might rather cut Grandal for Masterson.

Question: Someone just dumped Hamels. I've got $32 of FAAB. I'm thinking of bidding $17, but am worried that leaves me too little FAAB with 13 weeks left in the season and then playoffs ahead. Do you have a general rule of thumb for how much to keep in reserve?

Answer: I don't reserve much at all. I'd throw all 32 in if you can 0 bid on players

Question: 12-team mixer, 43-man rosters, 5 person DL, two minor leaguers, redraft. We only play one catcher. 9x9 scoring—singles, doubles, triples, and walks in addition to the usual five offensive; we add appearances, innings, losses (negative) and holds for pitching. I drafted Jesus Montero in the 12th and Grandal in the 43rd. Obviously, Montero is out. I traded for Ruiz right before he got hurt, and I have A.J. Ellis. Not a pretty picture right now.

My pitching has been good. The team BA is low, and so are singles. I can basically use a boost in every offensive category, though I've got talent. Would you say that Grandal and Ruiz are enough to get by with? I have three third basemen—Machado, Lawrie, and Arenado—and pitching to trade. It'd be costly, but I think an upgrade is possible. The whole roster is below the signature, though I think it's more a matter of what you think of these two.

Answer: I think you can get by with Grandal/Ruiz in a 12-teamer using just one C at a time, but you will be among the lowest production there. If you do want to upgrade, I wouldn't shoot for the Posey-Mauer moon, but rather the Rosario-Wieters area.

Question: The trade was as follows: I gave up Jason Grilli for Alex Rios. This is a standard 5x5 roto league, with the only exception being BBs replacing WHIP. My other closers include Nathan, Perez, and Bailey. I have already be awarded 22 saves and a handful of K's from Grilli. My outfield has been crushed; I currently have Harper, Heyward, Granderson, Dom Brown, Melky, and Willingham.

Answer: That's a great deal. I like Grilli and think he is legit, but you got a stud OF for a closer and that's a win.

Question: What do you think about Rickie Weeks? I'm in a 20-team mixed league, super knowledgeable, no keepers. I have Franklin and Keppinger. Hold, trade (not much interest thus far), or drop?

Answer: In a league that large, I think you have to hold. He was dreadful for most of the first half last year. At this point you're invested, and you have to hope something clicks. It's not much, but he does have a seven-game hit streak (no multi-hit games in that streak, though).

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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