There was a time when goliaths roamed the Earth. Runs were plentiful, and with few natural enemies, these behemoths could grow larger and larger, more and more sedentary. They had no need to run, so they lumbered about, leisurely returning home unmolested by predator or foe.
But the metaphor could not last forever. Eventually, offense in baseball went back down to more typical levels, and the game once again welcomed back the singles hitter, the glove man, the productive out. And, as runs went down, stolen bases went up. I gave the following graph, showing leaguewide scoring and stolen base totals by year, a pun title.
That’s the narrative, and it’s a good one. No problems with that narrative. Offense goes down, stolen bases go up. With runs at a premium, home runs less available, and basestealers getting better and better at avoiding caught stealings, the small-ball tactic takes on great significance.
What’s weird is that 2013 has disrupted the narrative, so far at least, and it’s not easy to say why. Here’s the same chart above, but with runs and stolen bases (prorated across a full season) added for 2013:
Brett Gardner is still looking for his first stolen base; Carlos Gomez got his first on Thursday. Michael Bourn, Mike Trout, and Jose Altuve have one each. Last year, teams attempted .89 steals per game; this year, they've attempted .69 steals per game.
So what’s to blame? Easier to rule out what’s not to blame, or probably not to blame, and see what’s left.
1. A gradual league-wide shift in style of play is not to blame.
As noted in the graphs above, the trend has been toward the stolen base, rather than away from it. If we go back to the beginning of the century, the most steal-happy seasons—both by attempts and by successful thefts—have come in the past two years:
Year | Steals | Attempts |
---|---|---|
2000 | 2924 | 4924 |
2001 | 3103 | 5104 |
2002 | 2750 | 4752 |
2003 | 2573 | 4576 |
2004 | 2589 | 4593 |
2005 | 2565 | 4570 |
2006 | 2767 | 4773 |
2007 | 2918 | 4925 |
2008 | 2799 | 4807 |
2009 | 2970 | 4979 |
2010 | 2959 | 4969 |
2011 | 3279 | 5290 |
2012 | 3229 | 5241 |
So this is an abrupt turnaround.
2. Basestealers being more choosy aren’t to blame.
Technically, they are choosing not to steal, so that is literally the reason. But it isn’t like baserunners all realized that getting caught's not worth it and decided they're not going to steal unless it’s a sure thing that they'll be safe. The league’s 73.4 percent success rate through the first 13 games is about identical to the league’s 73.5 percent success rate through the first 13 games of years 2007 through 2012; it’s only slightly better than the 73.1 percent overall success rate since 2007. Which is all just to say that this isn't a stolen bases phenomenon but a stolen base attempts phenomenon.
3. The particular characteristics unique to the month of April are not to blame.
You might guess that the first two weeks would be a slow time for stolen bases—weather, and injury concerns, and players working their way back to full speed. It’s not. From 2000 to 2012, teams attempted .827 steals per game in their first 13 games. They attempted .827 steals per game in their final 149 games.
All the same, if we compare 2013 thus far to the previous dozen years at comparable points (which is to say, the first 13 games of each team’s season, 13 being the number I’m choosing because there are teams this season that have played only 13 games), we have to go back a full decade to find a season as uninterested in basestealing as this one:
Year | SBs, first 13 games | Attempts, first 13 games |
---|---|---|
2000 | 216 | 343 |
2001 | 220 | 329 |
2002 | 227 | 346 |
2003 | 180 | 276 |
2004 | 216 | 297 |
2005 | 208 | 298 |
2006 | 200 | 279 |
2007 | 212 | 289 |
2008 | 247 | 340 |
2009 | 227 | 312 |
2010 | 273 | 359 |
2011 | 281 | 372 |
2012 | 249 | 354 |
2013 | 196 | 267 |
Comparing apples to apples, there are 87 stolen bases missing since last year.
4. The limited predictive power of mid-April statistics is probably not to blame.
The correlation between the league’s first 13 games and its final 149 games over the past decade is .63. There’s certainly room there for this to turn out to be a fluke, but that’s a solid correlation.
5. A lack of stolen base opportunities is not primarily to blame.
If, for instance, there just weren’t as many baserunners reaching first base (and OBP is down from last year, a tick), or if there weren’t as many baserunners reaching first base without a runner on second base, or if there weren’t as many baserunners reaching first base with two outs and without a runner on second or third (the most common basestealing situation) then that would explain it. That doesn’t explain it, because that’s not the case.
There are 24 base/out situations. Ten of them are either completely non-stealing situations (no runner on base) or de facto non-stealing situations (runner on third, bases loaded, etc). Of the other 14, baserunners are attempting to steal less frequently in 13 this season.
For instance, with a runner on first and two outs last year, baserunners stole second base or were caught stealing second base 10.76 percent of the time. In 2013, a runner has been on first with two outs 1,039 times. If 10.76 percent of those baserunners attempted to steal, there would be 112 attempts; in fact, there have been 94 attempts. Repeat that math for every situation, and it adds up to 97 missing stolen base attempts, based on this year's stolen base opportunities.
6. A preponderance of blowouts, if it existed, would not be to blame.
There have been somewhat more plate appearances this year in blowouts (a lead or deficit of five runs or greater), but even if it were a very significant disparity (it’s not) it wouldn’t be to blame. The league is stealing less often in tie games, in one-run games, in two-run games, in three-run games, in four-run games, and in blow-outs.
7. High-profile basestealers not getting on base are not primarily to blame.
Some of them might be, I guess. But there are 239 baserunners who have attempted to steal less often this year than they did last year, and just 90 who have attempted to steal more often. If every individual runner who reached first base stole at exactly the same rate that he stole last year—that is, Trout stole as often as Trout stole last year; Kelly Shoppach stole as often as Kelly Shoppach stole last year; etc.—there'd be roughly 83 more steal attempts than we've seen.
8. The temperature is not to blame.
A popular theory among BP authors is that the cold weather this spring would make baserunners more cautious, for fear of injury. It’s true that there have been more games in the 30s and 40s in the first two weeks of this year than in the first two weeks of the past three years; it’s not all that close:
Temp | 2010-2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|
0-39 degrees | 1% of games | 6% |
40-49 degrees | 11% | 18% |
50-59 degrees | 26% | 17% |
60-60 degrees | 32% | 32% |
70-79 degrees | 23% | 22% |
80+ degrees | 8% | 5% |
Temp | 2010-2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|
0-39 | 1.75 | 0.88 |
40-49 | 0.87 | 0.76 |
50-59 | 0.89 | 0.66 |
60-60 | 0.87 | 0.65 |
70-79 | 0.94 | 0.65 |
80+ | 0.98 | 0.60 |
Thanks to Colin Wyers for research assistance.
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1) lack of familiarity with the opposing pitcher/catcher batteries because of the new schedule format?
2) inexperience of players on roster, attributable to widespread injuries?
3) government mind control?
A fun look at SBs. Thanks!
I'd be curious about contact % this year, too. I'm biased by the stories of Gardner and Dunn's new effort to become contact hitters -- is this a trend? Are the lack of SBs a similar trend?
Now, I don't think the reasons for those teams' low attempts totals are strategic. I think they're accidents. I think the Indians might be doing some number-crunching and deciding to wait it out, but the Angels' drop is injury-related. The Astros' is about their .301 team OBP. The Yankees' is because they're anceint. Viewed this way, I sort of think the drop could be coincidence stemming from a few teams being in weird positions early on. Still just guessing though.
Another thing that you mention in the introduction but don't look at here: how has power this year compared to previous years? The argument is that power has been down in recent years so baserunners become more aggressive. Maybe managers and players are more cautious on the basepaths due to an abnormal spike in power early in the year.
I realize this is sloppy statistics, but I am just trying to give weak evidence to my point that this is probably due to a combination of an increase in power last year relative to the two years prior and the relative small sample of only being 13 games into this season.
None of this explains the wider trend, of course.
Just a notion.
It's not a bad notion, but we looked at individual players from year to year (so, eliminating the effect of "disappearing" players) and most are stealing less often.
Seriously, managers now read BP and see that success rates below a certain threshold (76% or something?) are counterproductive. So green lights only for those most likely to get above that threshold...
I'd like to think there will be a inflation back to the mean. Right now we're seeing less attempts, but we're seeing typical success rates. In 2011, the success rate over the first 13 games was .755. In 2012, the success rate was .703. This year that rate is in between at .734. I think we're looking at this as a statistical anomaly, when it's fairly typical. The steals aren't so far off to say there HAS to be something in strategy or a breakthrough in the way managers think about baserunning. It's a small sample size in a long season. Patience, maybe?
Got it!
Thanks Ben.
Sosh does seem to think in theory rather than the current reality.
It could also be a massive groundskeeper conspiracy.
1) Big skew in terms of RS. If you throw the bottom couple teams (e.g., the Marlins and their 2 RS/G) out of the equation, is run scoring still down?
2) People are taking an extra base 40% of the time, vs 41% last year. So similar it's hard to argue a 'base-path condition' explanation.
3) SB% is about the same as last year, indicating that if they did steal as much as last year it would be lower (Assuming diminishing marginal returns). So for whatever reason the conditions for stealing bases is worse, even if SB% is the same (since there's a selection bias where people don't choose their attempts at random, instead choosing the best opportunities).
4) Catcher (net) changes from last opening day: +Flowers +S. Perez, +Cervilli, +Jaso, +J Montero, +Laird, +Castillo, +Rosario, +Kratz, +Brantley, -Ruiz, -McCann, -Suzuki, -Olivo, -Soto, -Torrealba, -Pena, -Hernandez, -Thole, -Barajas. I don't know all that much about catcher defense, so I can't instinctively guess the sign of that effect (Assuming opening day starting correlates with more play the first 20 games). There are some stinkers on both lists, to be sure.
NL teams that tend to steal may be stealing less in games with a DH.
And it's not offset by AL teams forced to bat their pitcher because they haven't constructed their rosters to use speed the way NL teams have.
No clue if it's true, but seems logical.