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April 12, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Checking In On: Bubba Starling

by Jason Parks

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Throughout the 2013 season, we will be providing updates on the developmental ups and downs of the top prospects in the game, with a heavy focus on scouting reports and, when applicable, eyewitness takes. Knowing why a prospect is thriving, surviving, or dying is more important than just providing you with the status, free from explanation. With an unbalanced playing field in unbalanced environments, players will rise and fall for a variety of reasons, and cutting away the costume that can obscure the realities of a situation is the task we will willingly burden ourselves with.

As the minor-league season starts to find its legs, our eyes turn to daily box scores and Twitter blasts, hoping to see the stars of tomorrow flashing that promise on the smaller stages of today. We look for patterns in order to establish momentum or regression, and we cross our fingers that the slow starts are merely small sample sizes playing the villain and the fast starts are not only sustainable but the opening salvo of a monumental climb up the prospect ranks and the corporate ladder.

When it comes to evaluating the first ~10 games of a minor-league season, context is always king and the tether to the sample size caveat is made of steel, but not every slow start is created equal and not every early season eruption is the result of an actual eruption. Unless it’s Jorge Soler, in which case it’s probably an actual eruption. It’s important to break down why a player is flourishing or floundering, especially when the difference between a statistical slump and a statistical success could be the result of one big game.

For this particular article, I want to look at one slow start and break down why the early season woes could be more significant than the sample size normally allows for.

The Player: Bubba Starling:

The Sample: 7 games

The Numbers: .077/.143/.077; 11 Ks

What’s Happening: Starling is obviously struggling with contact and timing, as the bat is just not finding the ball with any consistency. As a 20-year-old making his full-season debut, this shouldn’t be an alarming outcome, but the way he is struggling has triggered such alarms before; in fact, many industry sources expressed concern over Starling’s present skills during spring training, with one source calling him, “the most likely high-ceiling minor-league talent to bust.”

Why it’s Happening: At the heart of the matter is the overall timing and rhythm of the setup and swing, as the trigger is often out of sync with the weight shift to the front leg. This can force his hands into catch-up mode and will not only disrupt the overall timing of the swing but also limit the bat speed and bat control Starling can offer. But there are other issues at play as well.

It has been observed (by me and several other sources) that Starling can struggle with the initial pick-up of the ball out of the pitcher’s hand, forcing a late mechanical reaction; I’ve seen him struggle against quality fastball velocity for this reason. Along those lines, Starling also struggles to adjust his timing and swing plane to off-speed pitches, which could be a part of a larger pitch identification issue. Now that’s not to suggest that Starling is completely underdeveloped at the plate; I’ve seen him get extended and punish fastballs, and you can’t deny the overall strength possible in the swing, especially when he can open his hips and extend through the baseball. But at the core of every great hitter is a natural bat-to ball relationship that is both easy and fluid, and Starling rarely flashes the qualities of a natural hitter.

To expand the last comment even further, I do have some concerns about Starling’s instincts for baseball, the kind that players either have or don’t have. While it’s certainly not an obstacle that would block his path to the major leagues (the league is full of players who can be better classified as talented athletes that play baseball rather than instinctual players with baseball skills) the suspect instincts for hitting could limit the ceiling for a player whose voluptuous ceiling was the reason he was given a $7.5 million bonus to commit to baseball in the first place. The existence of said instincts are debatable, and given the fact that he appears to have some feel for defense, perhaps not as suspect as this observer might believe. But I do have legit concerns about the hit tool, the carrying tool that will not only drive Starling to the majors but also provide his other physical gifts the stage to play on.

You can suggest, and perhaps you have a good case, that Starling is only 20, he hit the baseball well at the short-season level in his rookie season, and he was a multi-sport athlete who only recently committed to the game, so more patience is required and expected when evaluating his present skills. This is a very thoughtful and realistic suggestion, and it’s not without merit. But I’d be lying if I said the multi-sport background didn’t concern me, as it can tie into the baseball instinct argument, one that has deep roots in the neurological functions at play; specifically, the idea that the required visual-motor skills to hit a baseball form very early in life’s developmental process. This isn’t to suggest that Starling is doomed to fail or lacks the aforementioned acquired skills to not only recognize the ball but trigger the action to strike it, but that his particular multi-sport background and adolescent athletic priorities might play a role in his overall feel for the game of baseball, and in particular, the feel for hitting.

Of course, my conclusions weren’t bred from an eight-game sample, but when coupled with countless hours of watching Starling play and conversations with numerous industry sources, the sample starts to look systemic. Starling is the type of prospect who encourages observers to acquiesce to the dream without confronting the realities on the situation. He’s a faith-based prospect on the highest level. The physical characteristics, the aesthetic qualities, they make persuasive arguments that this is a superstar starter kit, and with a little luck and a lot of patience and a lot of belief, this will be the face of a franchise for a decade. I’m quite susceptible to the charms of a high-ceiling prospect, even one who requires more faith than fact, which makes this case study all the more fascinating to me. No doubt influenced by my time spent watching him play, the dream starts to dissolve with every viewing, as the promised and propagated loud tools aren’t nearly as loud as advertised, and choir of voices signing his virtues have run into pitch issues. Literally.

What Happens Next?: Starling isn’t going hit .077/.143/.077 all season, and as he finds more comfort and confidence in his swing, he should start to put more balls in play and find more consistent hard contact. Because of his obvious physical gifts, Starling should survive the lower minors and might even coast on those physical merits until he reaches the Double-A level. If the instincts to hit are as a flimsy as I’ve suggested, that level could be his wall, the obstacle that weakens the case for superstardom to even those who are most steadfast in their fervor. As gifted as Starling is, the ability to hit a baseball is what will define his career, taking him to the heights of all-star status if the amateur reports prove to be prophetic, or leaving him twisting in the minor-league wind if the physical promise gets derailed by developmental issues that existed before he ever took his first professional swing. 

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  Bubba Starling

42 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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cjbuet

what stadium does he play in sooner; kauffman or Memorial (nebraska football)?

Apr 12, 2013 03:27 AM
rating: 6
 
psugator01

i'm starting to hear this from lots of different people so your comments are not isolated. i hope he figures things out -- or gets help from someone -- because he seems like a great kid.

Apr 12, 2013 06:09 AM
rating: 0
 
navarred

If I were the GM and I'd read your article, I'd get the kid into an optometrist's office and have his eyesight checked. If he can't pick up the laces right away to see rotation, that would explain a lot.

Apr 12, 2013 07:04 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Assuming the problem is with recognition and reaction --which is just one of the industry opinions floating around and not a fact--the problem would most likely go far beyond eyesight. I think there is a ceiling to what is possible when it comes to recognition/reaction skills from a neurological standpoint.

Apr 12, 2013 08:03 AM
 
jcjohnson

Neurological limits on recognition/reaction skills? I've never heard that before, but it's very interesting to me. I guess I had always assumed that skill was part of what players are developing while they're getting ABs in the minors. And I guess it makes sense that there would be an individual ceiling for each player. So the question is, how could a scout possibly estimate that ceiling in a high school kid? Because it seems like a pretty important issue.

Apr 12, 2013 09:40 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Again, I think it has to be player specific, but when it comes to hitting, I think you want to see a very natural bat-to-ball relationship. Is it easy for the player to hit? You can tailor swings and make adjustments that help the task along, but ultimately it comes down to the simple act of recognizing the ball, reacting to the ball, and putting the stick on the ball. You either have that ability or you don't.

Scouts at the amateur level do their homework when it comes to a player's history and overall familiarity with the game. It is a factor in the overall evaluation process.

Apr 12, 2013 09:50 AM
 
navarred

While it's not likely to be the source of the problem, getting his eyesight checked would be easy, which is why, as a GM, I would do it.

Apr 12, 2013 10:26 AM
rating: 0
 
timber

I would think that would have been well within the Royals' radar already. Remember they went through this with Hosmer during his first full season, found that he had a vision problem, and promptly sent him to have Lasik.

Apr 12, 2013 14:11 PM
rating: 3
 
Matt Trueblood

Is this going to be a cautionary tale, the tipping point back toward at least a modicum of polish for top draft picks? It just seems like Starling marks the point at which this pendulum of draft-day decision-making (which swung too far toward college kids five or 10 years ago) swung too far toward tools again. I would think this will give pause to teams thinking about spending a top-10 pick on a really raw position player for a while.

No? Yes?

Apr 12, 2013 07:07 AM
rating: 0
 
Dave Holgado

That's an interesting theory, but I'm not sure if it completely holds up. Looking at Bubba's draft in particular (2011), the top 3 picks were college pitchers, and 13 of the top 20 picks were college players. Also, scouting at the high school level has seemingly improved (and year-round travel team play for high school kids has become popularized and its competition level has increased) to the point where it might no longer be as accurate to think of the line between college and high school as so neat a division between "polished" and "raw." You can sometimes still get a raw college player like George Springer. And as shown by most of the rest of the high school kids that went in the top 20 in Bubba's draft, polished high schoolers exist, too. That group included Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, and Jose Fernandez. All studs, all (except Bradley, perhaps) with extraordinary polish for their ages to go along with their raw tools. (I left out Brandon Nimmo, the raw kid from the baseball factory that is Wyoming, because, really, is there any way to explain anything the Mets do?) Albert Almora is another great example from the top of the 2012 draft. So it might just be that Dayton Moore was a little behind the curve, and that he learned his lesson when he tapped Kyle Zimmer the following year. (In fairness, it might also be that 2011 was an extraordinary year for polished high school kids.)

Apr 12, 2013 07:54 AM
rating: 2
 
gpurcell

Not particularly fair. The Royals were zeroed in on the college arms but they were all taken by the time their draft slot came up.

Apr 13, 2013 18:54 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think it has to be talent specific. Starling had one of the highest ceilings (if not THE highest tool-based ceiling) in the draft class. That's hard to pass up, especially when you factor in his local ties. But while high risk/high reward picks can help turn the fortunes of a franchise around, you can't play Powerball with a top 5 pick.

Apr 12, 2013 08:00 AM
 
formersd

B/w Donavan Tate and Starling, the crazy tool ceiling plays seem likely to take a hit in perceived risk/reward over the next few drafts.

Apr 12, 2013 08:11 AM
rating: 0
 
dcapofari

I disagree with the "can't play powerball with the top 5 picks" the whole draft is a gamble. What's the problem with gambling with a gamble? Go big or go home, especially when your franchise hasn't had a winning season since 89.

Apr 12, 2013 08:24 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

There are different tiers of high risk gambles, and a poor gamble in the 15th round doesn't have the same effect on a franchise as a poor gamble in the 1st round. Not fielding a winning team since 1989 shouldn't encourage a go big or go home philosophy; in fact, you would think it would promote more introspection and a more meticulous process of talent procurement.

But finding talent hasn't been the Royals problem. Their farm system has been thick in recent years.

Apr 12, 2013 08:42 AM
 
timber

It's certainly a high-risk gamble, and with Starling it was from the get-go, but when you're you have a chance at a superstar you take it. Maybe that pick does go bust, but the game is won with superstars. I can definitely understand the Royals giving him a shot. And it's still possible that one day it will go "click" for him.

Apr 12, 2013 14:18 PM
rating: 0
 
John Carter

I didn't understand your point about multi-sport stars. Are you saying that deters from their baseball skills because: a) it takes away from their baseball training; b) it develops skills that take away from their baseball abilities; c)multi-sport athletes inherently lack the finer specific skills necessary to be Major League baseball stars; d) I missed your point entirely.

Apr 12, 2013 09:25 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

It depends on the player involved, but some multi-sport athletes never develop the instincts for the game (baseball), which can often be attributed to a lack of focus on the sport in early development. While most top-shelf athletes play a variety of sports growing up, the ability to hit a baseball at the highest level is directly tied to learned visual-motor skills that start to develop at a very early age. It's not something that most athletes can just play catch-up with at this stage of the game. Apologies if that point wasn't clear.

Apr 12, 2013 09:35 AM
 
Dave Holgado

You've also made a convincing argument for universal pre-K.

Apr 12, 2013 09:55 AM
rating: 2
 
canada

I don't actually know if I disagree or agree with your main argument, but these are my thoughts. The Royals knew he didn't get nearly as many ABs from Age 4-18 as your typical first round high school pick (or 50th round pick for that matter). Is it not a possibility that the Royals and other evaluators were just blinded by his loud tools facing mediocre competition and exposure (i believe his only major national baseball exposure was a handful of perfect game showcases his senior year), athleticism and his locality in the case of the Royals? Out of curiousity, did you speak to any team's amateur scouts who had him way down on their boards at draft time?

If he does bust, I just don't think we can know if it's because he had all the skills he needed, but just didn't get the early years baseball experience, or if was just exposed because of the lack of competition he faced in the few years prior to being drafted.

Apr 12, 2013 11:05 AM
rating: 0
 
canada

I wasn't as coherent as I wanted to be there. To sum up my question for you Parks, do you think that Starling was fundamentally overrated at draft time by the Royals (and anyone else who would have picked him that high) or do you think the Royals were always aware that he had a huge bust potential and just decided the reward was high enough to go for it?

Apr 12, 2013 11:08 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

I think this is a very good question, one that I can only answer based on information I've gathered from a small pool of amateur scouts I've spoken to about Starling (more talks with pro scouts). The obnoxious raw tools/ceiling made Starling a very attractive amateur prospect. As was mentioned, the level of competition he played against and the lack of focus on baseball gave some reason to be more pessimistic than others, but the extreme reward was most likely the carrot on the stick. I don't think he would have fallen very far if the Royals hadn't popped him, but some in the industry suggested that the Royals just couldn't pass on a local kid with that much upside, regardless of some of the red flags.

Apr 12, 2013 11:16 AM
 
canada

Makes sense, thanks for the response. If there were enough teams who would be willing to spend a 1st round pick on him (and give him his bonus demands), i guess it's hard to fault the Royals too much, especially considering he was a local guy.

Apr 12, 2013 11:29 AM
rating: 0
 
canada

(and it is probably 3-5 years from the point where you can really call him a bust).

Apr 12, 2013 11:30 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Exactly. He's had a slow start (this season; small sample) and there are some concerns going forward, specifically with his feel for hitting, but he's far from a bust at this stage of the game. Development is never a black and white issue. This story is far from over.

Apr 12, 2013 11:32 AM
 
canada

For sure. I am by no means a paid amateur scout, and have only ever seen Youtube videos of Starling, but would I have paid $7 million for Bubba Starling when I could have taken Rendon, Archie Bradley or Lindor? No. But, in almost any GM's shoes, would I have taken him over a Jungmann, Nimmo, or Spangenberg? 20 times over.

Apr 12, 2013 11:46 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Nick Faleris
BP staff

Starling actually did not attend any Perfect Game events, but played elsewhere on the scouting circuit the summer/fall before his senior year. Tournament of Stars (and later with Team USA's 18U team), Under Armour All-America Game, Area Code Games, etc. He showed marked improvement throughout the summer, as well, and took to instruction (largely, I'd wager, because his athleticism allows him to incorporate suggested changes). He was routinely singled out as one of the top players at these events full of the best draft eligible prep players for 2011.

Apr 14, 2013 12:34 PM
 
rimmer93117

I think age at the time he was drafted has a lot to do with this as well. If he was that raw and a year younger it wouldn't be this alarming; but to be one of the oldest HS players drafted in his class AND to be one of the most raw - seems like you diminish your chances even further to realize his potential.

Apr 12, 2013 10:03 AM
rating: 4
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Yes; Rany did a fantastic study on the age/development issue. Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295

Apr 12, 2013 10:09 AM
 
Ironhorse

As a KC resident, I saw Starling QB several games against quality 6A and 5A opponents. His speed, arm, instincts and leadership were breath-stopping. Starling came to national prominence as a baseball prospect his junior year as a power pitcher, not a hitter, though obviously his arm and speed prompted visions of CF sugarplums. His move to CF his senior spring did not help his team and was probably prompted by consultation. In terms of money, the move succeeded.

I've long been intrigued as to why organizations immediately, stubbornly pidgeonhole players who both pitch and play a fielding position. Tim Lollar led the old Southwest Conference in hitting at Arkansas but signed with an NL team that let him find his way as a successful pitcher. The best college ballplayer I ever saw was Howser Award winner Brooks Kieschnick, Texas' best pitcher, hitter, 1B...The only thing Brooks could not do was run, so naturally, the Cubs organization tried to make him an OF. Imagine if they had not "known everything" before they knew anything. The Phils are still working with Joe Savery. There are dozens of examples.

I suspected it was a mistake for Starling to stop pitching, though clearly this was not the ROYALS' doing. The Starling family chose to "protect" his arm, admittedly in the sort of cold, rainy, windy, miserable conditions of spring HS baseball in this part of the country.

However, don't count out Bubba Starling. Kids and coaches in this region have no idea how lousy their youth baseball is compared to parts of the country where kids play scores more games for many more months of the year. Baseball skills develop from repetition. Kids in the Caribbean, Florida, Texas have played more games by age 9 or 10 than Starling has played in his life.

Have NO doubt about the ability, the athlete. Perhaps Starling's best play would be to give up the hunting and fishing for one year, play the minors, the AFL, head to the Caribbean for the winter, and continue the immersion back in the minors next summer. And maybe someone will by accident or design let him start throwing BP again.

As a pitcher: scary good.
As a hitter: way too little experience to know.

Apr 12, 2013 10:28 AM
rating: 3
 
timber

As a pitcher, predraft scouting reports were a mix of praising the results while noting that he had zero clue what he was doing. (They read something along the lines of, "If somebody teaches him how to pitch he could be scary.") Indeed, by his own admission he had never had any pitching instruction at all.

In my naive world it seems to me that picking up pitching would be a whole lot easier than picking up hitting, so moving him to the mound is a thought. I think you have to give him plenty of time to see how those other skills play out first, though.

Apr 12, 2013 14:29 PM
rating: 3
 
PGTyKai

He chose to stay away from the very best baseball competition while in HS. So he definitely is behind the elite minor leaguers you mentioned above.

But players who don't jump at the opportunity to compete against the best throws up a red flag for me. That still worries me more than if he'll hit, but some in the industry wondered about the hit tool.

Carl Crawford was Nebraska bound as QB but he showed up against the best and hit em in the dead of winter in Florida. Dan Jennings pounced on him first pick 2nd round and, if I remember correctly, KC liked him a lot too.

Another comp while different position if he continues to struggle may be Josh Booty. Great ability with huge arm, big body, couldn't run like Starling but had the other tools. He just couldn't hit and he had a huge target on him. Milb Pitchers really went after him. Quick story, closer got first two guys out, walked 3rd hitter on 4 pitches

Apr 12, 2013 10:59 AM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Excellent comment.

Apr 12, 2013 11:02 AM
 
PGTyKai

just to face Booty and struck him out on 3 pitches. first walk of the season for him in a one run game in the ninth.Have you heard of any similar stories where pitchers are really going after him because of his bonus?

Apr 12, 2013 11:03 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

Re: Starling. I've spoken to a few players who weren't very impressed with him and wanted to challenge him. Of course, its hard for me to separate a competitive kid wanting to challenge every hitter he faces from a kid wanting to challenge Starling specifically because of the hype.

Apr 12, 2013 11:19 AM
 
jrcolwell

I think when a guy struggles like this, it is also important to ala Billy Beane, see how he responds. When he pops up or strikes out with runners in scoring position, does he go into an expletive laced tirade? There is a fine line between being competitive and hurting yourself by hanging on each failure in key situations. Hopefully he doesn't let it snowball and realizes he is still getting comfortable at the pro level.

Apr 12, 2013 11:28 AM
rating: 0
 
rwp9843

Fascinating topic. Jason, are there any scientific (i.e. measurable) indicators of pitch recognition and bat-to-ball skills? Do stats like BB%, swing and miss %, swing rate at pitches in the strike zone versus those out of the strike zone, line drive rate, etc. correlate with these (pitch recognition, bat-to-ball) skills? What about reaction time measurements and other physical measurements that can be collected in the laboratory setting? If only I were a graduate student in kinesiology or neuroscience.

Apr 12, 2013 16:04 PM
rating: 2
 
Ben Solow

David Somers' lab at Boston University is working on measuring deception by pitch-mixing using reaction time and strike zone judgement. If I remember correctly, he's using college baseball players (although at a relatively low level) as his test subjects, and asking them to respond to simulated pitches from pitch f/x data.

Apr 14, 2013 06:37 AM
rating: 0
 
sbnirish77
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

It says a lot about your assumptions about your audience that you don't think the overall # 5 pick and top 40 prospect needs an introduction that at least mentions his franchise team.

There are circle of baseball fans who visit this site that wouldn't know Mason Williams, Albert Amora, Lucas Giolito, or Andrew Heaney.

Apr 13, 2013 17:45 PM
rating: -6
 
BP staff member Jason Parks
BP staff

It would take one additional click to find out more information on Bubba Starling via his player page. Nobody else had a problem with it.

Apr 14, 2013 09:52 AM
 
Ben Solow

+1000 to you Jason.

Apr 14, 2013 13:17 PM
rating: 0
 
sbnirish77

And it would have taken three words from you and maybe a few more to provide the context my response did.

Apr 14, 2013 14:45 PM
rating: -3
 
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