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Speed
Top Speed in the Minor Leagues: Billy Hamilton (Cincinnati Reds)

There are 80-grade runners and then there’s Billy Hamilton. Almost to a person, Hamilton was dubbed the fastest player the BP Prospect Team and industry scouts had seen in their careers. In his past two minor-leagues seasons, Hamilton has stolen 258 bases across three levels. In 2012 he broke a long-standing minor-league record and ended the season with 155 steals in just 132 games. As if the stolen base totals weren’t enough evidence of Hamilton’s blinding speed, scouts routinely report home-to-first times in the 3.40-3.45 second range; blowing the 20-80 scale out of the water. Hamilton is an elite runner in every respect. He gets up to top speed in just a few quick steps, sustains his speed well while running the bases and has shown good closing speed in the outfield. Hamilton’s speed is a game-changing tool that will carry him to the big leagues, and the second he steps on a big league field he will be the fastest player in the history of the game.

Other Players Considered: Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins), DJ Davis (Toronto Blue Jays), Terrance Gore (Kansas City Royals), Roman Quinn (Philadelphia Phillies)

There are plenty of 80-grade runners in the minor leagues; they’re just not as fast as Hamilton. Davis and Quinn have stood out as legitimate 80-grade runners in every sense of the phrase. Gore earned extensive praise for his top-end speed with consistent 8s from scouts. As if Buxton’s wealth of potential plus tools weren’t enough, he brings elite speed to the table as well, making him a threat on the bases and in center field.

Top Major League Speed: Michael Bourn (Cleveland Indians)

All-Time Tool: Vince Coleman

How to Identify It: The baseline for identifying speed remains the home-to-first time. This time is determined by starting the stopwatch at the crack of the bat and stopping the watch the instant a player’s foot hits the first base bag. The basic scale for assigning grades to home-to-first times is as follows:

 

Left-Handed Hitter

Home-to-First Time

(seconds)

Right-Handed Hitter

Home-to-First Time

(seconds)

Grade

3.9 and below

4.0 and below

80

4.0

4.1

70

4.1

4.2

60

4.2

4.3

50

4.3

4.4

40

4.4

4.5

30

4.5+

4.6+

20

 

In a perfect world, these grades are assigned on the basis of multiple home-to-first times, giving the scout a clear picture of the player’s typical speed. There will be some variation in times turned in by a player, depending on their “dig” or how they get out of the box, and collecting multiple times can allow for a more accurate representation of what should be expected day to day. From this basic grade a scout can project how they believe a player will maintain his speed long term. Much of this projection hinges on the body type and how the player is expected to mature. The application of a player’s speed will be factored into other grades on a scouting report, including his defense, baserunning. For players for whom speed is a considerable part of the game, it will also be accounted for when grading the hit tool.

Baserunning
Top Baserunner in the Minor Leagues: Terrance Gore (Kansas City Royals)

Already an elite runner, Gore brings exceptional baserunning instincts to the table as well. He has shown uncanny aptitude for reading both right-handed and left-handed pitchers from first base, allowing him to gain a tremendous advantage over any catcher trying to gun him down. In addition, Gore reads the ball very well after it is hit, giving him the opportunity to break early on balls that will be out of the reach of a defender and have a chance to sneak an extra base because of his excellent jump. On his own hits, Gore does a very good job of reading the relationship between the defender and the ball, and knowing the outfielder’s arm strength to make a determination on taking extra bases. As BP’s Jason Parks put it, “He doesn’t make outs on base.”

Other Players Considered: Jackie Bradley (Boston Red Sox), Francisco Lindor (Cleveland Indians), Roman Quinn (Philadelphia Phillies)

Neither Jackie Bradley or Francisco Lindor are what scouts would consider burners. They are above-average runners who can impact the game on the bases because of their natural instincts and baserunning acumen. Generally speaking, both Bradley and Lindor are lauded for their high baseball IQ, and that flashes when they take extra bases thanks to heady reads and excellent jumps. On the other hand, Quinn offers elite speed and has shown quality instincts, allowing his speed to play up a notch. Quinn is still refining his ability to read pitchers and get jumps when stealing bases, but his ability to read the ball and defenders in order to take extra bases is already very good.

Top Major League Baserunner: Desmond Jennings (Tampa Bay Rays)

All-Time Tool: Tim Raines

How to Identify It: Baserunning can be difficult to pin down without focusing on a player and having the opportunity to see him during multiple games. So much of identifying baserunning hinges on the situations a player faces in a game, so a scout can go several days without really having a feel for how a player reacts once on base. When a player reaches first base, a scout may focus on how he reads the pitcher; looking to see how the player reacts to what the pitcher does. Does he consistently misread lefties by stepping back to the bag when the pitchers are in fact going to the plate? Does he get a good jump on his secondary lead or steal attempt when the pitcher does go to the plate? Beyond a player’s feel for stealing bases, baserunning grades also account for the ability to properly read balls off the bat, getting appropriate jumps on balls that are going to fall for hits, and taking extra bases with intelligence rather than reckless abandon. Noticing these factors takes a keen eye amidst the other action on the field. Scouts are looking for any hesitation when rounding bases, how quickly a runner is moving when the ball is put in play and, more simply, how frequently a player creates an out on the bases.

Makeup
Top Makeup in the Minor Leagues: Francisco Lindor (Cleveland Indians)

While his obvious baseball ability is what draws most of the attention, Lindor’s makeup allows his tools and skills to play at a high level in any environment. Lindor is an exceptionally hard worker who works to eliminate the weaknesses in his game as well as refine his strengths. He offers an intelligence and level-headedness on the field that are unusual for a player his age. Lindor’s ability to deal with failure and continue performing at a high level stands out among his peers as well as among players significantly older than him. He is an extremely competitive player who shows an ability to elevate his level of play to match the skill level of the players around him. Everything about Lindor hints at the exceptional makeup he carries behind his impressive tool set. From the way he interacts with others to the way he carries himself on and off the field, Lindor epitomizes top notch makeup.

Other Players Considered: Albert Almora (Chicago Cubs), Dylan Bundy (Baltimore Orioles), Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins), Kevin Gausman (Baltimore Orioles), Jurickson Profar (Texas Rangers)

The list of players considered for best makeup in the minor leagues could have gone on forever. Jose Fernandez’s story has been well chronicled in recent days and he easily could have slotted in the top spot instead of Lindor. Fernandez is mature beyond his years and has every desirable trait in a player. The same can be said of Albert Almora and Jurickson Profar, who both have that intangible quality about their games. Throughout the spring, scouts had wonderful things to say about the work ethic, maturity and on-field composure of Orioles teammates Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Both pitchers have what it takes to move very quickly through the minor leagues and they have the maturity to handle a big-league assignment very early in their respective careers.

Top Major League Makeup: Derek Jeter (New York Yankees)

All-Time Tool: Jackie Robinson

How to Identify It: Makeup is without a doubt the most complicated attribute a scout is asked to evaluate. It’s not about being a nice guy and it isn’t any one thing. Makeup is a combination of work ethic, competitiveness, desire, leadership, intelligence, dealing with failure and so much more. There is no clean way to evaluate a player in any one of these areas. It’s a messy gray area that requires more than just time and personal observation. It requires a scout to talk to players, coaches and other scouts to get a feel for how a player acts. It requires a bit of a history with a player, including the possibility of actually knowing the player personally. A player’s makeup is born out over time and evolves as he matures emotionally. Being arrogant or a jerk doesn’t preclude a player from having generally positive makeup, but it can disguise the fact that he is a positive influence in other ways and is considered to have “it.” Deciphering a player’s makeup is never as simple as watching how early he shows up to the park, how hard he works on an offday, or how he treats media members. It’s about how he acts and reacts in a variety of situations that tells a scout whether or not a player has the makeup to handle the rigors of major-league life.

Article discussed and debated by the Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team. Constructed and delivered by Mark Anderson.

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fbraconi
4/05
Nice to see your nod to Jennings as top MLB baserunner. I think many people, and especially the projection systems, are underestimating him in a number of ways. But I LOVE your selection of all-time best make-up. An astute recognition that there's more to baseball than just baseball.
Oleoay
4/07
When EqBRR came out, I remember Juan Pierre being rated very highly.
AndersonAdams1
4/05
Love this series. I agree that Jackie Robinson was the perfect choice.
juice133
4/05
Thanks guys! I appreciate the kind words toward the series. It was a lot of fun to debate and put together.
grandslam28
4/05
No nod to Desheilds in speed?
juice133
4/05
As I said above, there are lots of 80-grade runners. I highlighted those that stood out the most.
jimcal
4/05
Did Derek Jeter receive mentions in base running? Maybe it's fan biased but I recalled his base running decision has always been high praised. Not sure if he was among best in the league, which is my question here.
hyprvypr
4/05
Isn't it RJ/Rajai Davis/Toronto instead of DJ Davis?
jparks77
4/05
D.J. Davis is a prospect in the Jays farm system. He's very fast.
almagu
4/05
So according to the 20-80 speed chart, Billy Hamilton has 140 speed? Does he have the single best tool anyone has ever had?
smallflowers
4/06
I think he has to display it in the show before it's the best anything.
dwachtell
4/05
What's the significance of makeup, though? Is it about allowing a player to reach his top potential? Mitigating the likelihood of drop-offs in performance due to behavioral issues/apathy/being out of shape? Improving his teammates around him? Likelihood of doing "the little things" (backing up throws, etc.)? All of the other skills have much more direct correlation to on-field performance, whereas it's not obvious what the point of scouting/grading makeup even is (not that I doubt that there is one).
boards
4/05
I suspect it helps in evaluating a player's ability to approach the ceiling that their innate tools project.
Samhain31
4/05
Not sure recognizing someone as "All Time Tool" is the best possible word choice actually...
Lindemann
4/05
Especially for the makeup tool
adrock
4/05
Has Hamilton ever been timed at the 100 metre dash? He'd have to be somewhere below 10.5, at least...
maphal
4/05
If Hamilton did nothing but beat the ball into the ground via grounders and bunts, what would his slash line be? The Reds are hoping he has just a bit of line drive power that could make him a star. As a Reds fan, I'm very much looking forward to seeing him daily but we don't know what we have yet.
surlycooper
4/05
Now just for fun can we have a "grit" ranking please?
bobbygrace
4/05
Top grit tool in the minor leagues: Cutter Dykstra

Top MLB grit: Nick Punto

All-time tool: Rooster Cogburn
Chucko
4/06
Man, if we're getting Grit then #Want has to be in this series somewhere too. I expected it to fall under Makeup but evidently it does not.
DMGMDIDWHAT
4/05
How does gore match up against hamilton? Could he push towards the SB in the minors that hamilton put up last year with better pitcher reading ability?
lopkhan00
4/05
"[T]he second he steps on a big league field he will be the fastest player in the history of the game."

Until he can turn out the lights and be in bed before the room gets dark ala Cool Papa Bell, he'll just be one of the guys.
LlarryA
4/05
People would ask Buck O'Neill how fast Cool Papa Bell was, and his answer (per Joe Posnanski) was always "Faster than that."

I'd have loved to hear how he would have described Hamilton. (He might also have been one of the best qualified to try and compare the two...)
lopkhan00
4/05
Well then there's Satchell Paige who said "One time he (Cool Papa Bell) hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second."
hotstatrat
4/05
I would like to see more about make-up and whatever tools players have that we can't see in their stats.
mkvallely
4/05
I always thought Fernando Vina had the best makeup. I mean, it literally looked like his facial hair was painted on with makeup.
KerryHofmeister
4/05
Outstanding series guys.
faithdies
4/05
Top baserunning of all time? Rickey.
Oleoay
4/07
Stolen-base wise, Raines had a higher percentage of success than Rickey but I don't know, anecdotally, who was better at actual baserunning. Interesting how Henderson, the all-time leader in runs, stolen bases, and 2nd in walks didn't register with an all-time tool, though he had a lot of elite tools.
pizzacutter
4/06
One of these days, I wanna have a conversation with all of you about makeup.
jparks77
4/06
It might be the most important tool
mshopoff
4/06
All-time best makeup: Avon Driggers or Dennis Dove?
chabels
4/06
Pete Rose up for consideration either for all-time baserunning tool?
smallflowers
4/06
I'd think Rose would actually rate extremely high in the makeup department. After Robinson, I can't think of another player more driven and competitive than Rose.
jparks77
4/06
I agree with this 100%
chabels
4/07
Yup, that was the other half of the "either' that I apparently didn't enter correctly.

Interesting how "baseball makeup" sometimes translates to human being makeup (Robinson) and sometimes does not (Rose).
jashnew
4/07
Anybody remember Joey Gathright and Reggie Abercrombie? Let's hope Hamilton doesn't turn into those 2.