CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Click here to log in

Click here for forgotten password

Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article

Overthinking It: Ranki... (03/22)

<< Previous Column
Prospects Will Break Y... (03/19)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (03/28)

Next Article >>

Fantasy Tier Rankings:... (03/25)

Printer-friendly

March 22, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “I got my bag, run to the station. Railman says you've got the the wrong location. I got my bag, run right home. Then I find I've got the number wrong.”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Billy Hamilton
Position: CF
DOB: 09/09/1990
Height/Weight: 6’1’’ 160 lbs.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Drafted/Acquired: 2^nd round, 2009 draft, Taylorsville High School (Taylorsville, MS)
2012 Stats: .323/.413/.439 at High-A Bakersfield (82 games); .286/.406/.383 at
Double-A Pensacola (50 games)
The Tools: 8 run; 6 glove; 5 arm; 5+ potential hit

What Happened in 2012: Billy Hamilton stole 155 bases in 132 regular season games making him the scariest baserunner of the modern era.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content: Prospects, Cincinnati Reds, Billy Hamilton, Daniel Corcino, Reds Top Prospects, Robert Stephenson, Tiny Cingrani

36 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

rofldude

I have a question: Is Billy Hamilton slowing himself down by wearing those pants?

Mar 22, 2013 04:12 AM

rating: 0

jdeich

I think public nudity is frowned upon in Cincinnati. He might have options on the road vs. the Giants, however.

Mar 22, 2013 07:11 AM

rating: 3

lipitorkid

+10 especially in the Castro district. If he played for the Astros he could just wear chaps.

Mar 22, 2013 07:20 AM

rating: -2

rofldude

I should have elaborated on my comment, as it obviously went over a few heads but hey, it was early and I hadn't had any coffee. The picture on the BP homepage shows Hamilton in midstride, and the crotch of his pants appear to be down around his knees. It seems to me that this might be an impairment, not only from a kinetic standpoint, but aerodynamically as well. I was just hoping someone with some knowledge of such things might chime in. That was the only thought I had on the issue.

Mar 22, 2013 11:47 AM

rating: 0

MonkeyEpoxy

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Get over yourself.

Mar 22, 2013 22:01 PM

rating: -22

volzok

What are the odds that Yorman Rodriguez ends up on this list next season? I understand he won't reach the ceiling we once thought but does he still project as big leaguer?

Mar 22, 2013 05:35 AM

rating: 0

sitdancer

When do you expect Mesoraco to become the primary option at C for the Reds? 2014? Later?

Mar 22, 2013 05:47 AM

rating: 0

Lou Doench

Ryan Hanigan isn't even a free agent until 2015. He has a career .370 obp and everybody loves him as a catcher and teammate. Basically Rocco needs to hit a ton when he gets his chance or hope that Hanner's gets hurt.

Mar 22, 2013 06:30 AM

rating: 0

Benjamin Harris

Any truth to the rumor that Nick Travieso is the illegitimate son of Kevin Mench?

Mar 22, 2013 05:55 AM

rating: 2

Jim Humdingding

I lost 35 pounds, but I got no satisfaction from it b/c I no longer have the same hat size as Mench (size 8). Considering bulking back up. And my size 8 was a little cheap since I'm much taller than Mench.

Mar 22, 2013 08:29 AM

rating: 2

Pat Folz

Going into 2012, I recall one of the knocks on Hamilton being that he ironically wasn't a very "good" base-stealer in terms of technique. I didn't notice it mentioned here... has he improved in that area, or did his success at AA convince scouts that his schtick will play in the Majors?

Mar 22, 2013 06:13 AM

rating: 2

redguy12588

I still don't get all the hype for Billy Hamilton, he has no power, and he'll get thrown out a lot more in the majors. Sure if everything works out, he's the next Juan Pierre, but if not, then he's Scott Podsednik. Neither option to me sounds all that great.

Mar 22, 2013 06:21 AM

rating: 0

Lou Doench

It's a matter of scale. When Juan Pierre was Hamilton's age he stole 38 bases in Portland. When Scott Podsednik was that age he stole 20 bases in the minors. Neither of those guys is a good comp for Billy. The best comp I've seen is the man whose record was broken, Vince Coleman. That's his downside imho. Now our understanding of the game has advanced to the point that Coleman is considered an overrated player. But if that's his floor then he's still a fine prospect. Youtube the kid... he is faster than you think, faster than anyone since Willie Wilson.

Mar 22, 2013 06:36 AM

rating: 5

lipitorkid

I agree with Lou about the Vince Coleman comp. And if he's a little more Tim Raines than Vince Coleman he'll be VERY valuable. Also if he's 2001-2005 Juan Pierre I think fantasy owners would be more than okay with that floor.

Mar 22, 2013 07:04 AM

rating: 1

SC

Vince Coleman is one of the most overrated players of all time (unlike Raines). He stole a lot of bases but also made a ton of outs. His OBP was only over .400 once in his entire career, and his career OBP is just .324. For a guy with those wheels, he only hit .264 for his career.

If Hamilton has exactly Coleman's hit tool, let's say he plays a bit more valuable for being a shade faster. A .270/.330/.330 guy isn't hugely valuable in real life, but will be perceived as such because of all the steals.

Mar 22, 2013 08:16 AM

rating: 1

jdeich

In addition to stealing a kajillion bases, he posted a .410 OBP in A+/AA last season. The various projection systems are all over the place on Hamilton (understandably), but if he can put up a .360 or so OBP, tear up the basepaths, and play acceptable CF, that's a 2-3 win guy who is 22 years old.

Brett Gardner has no power, and was worth +10.7 bWAR in his two full seasons with the Yankees. His minor-league SB% and his major-league SB% are identical.

It's not clear why you think Billy Hamilton will get thrown out "a lot more" in the majors. Yes, the pitchers have better moves and the catchers have better arms. But Hamilton is 22 years old, and he's been stealing bases despite poor jumps and technique. That's all teachable, and he's likely to gain a step with experience.

Mar 22, 2013 07:07 AM

rating: 6

AJ

I concur.

Hamilton might take a small hit in the SB efficiency department because it will be the Yadier Molina's of the world trying to gun him down, and not journeymen C in Double-A, but anyone that has seen Hamilton knows his technique needs refinement. He has legitimate baseball skills, so this isn't a Dee Gordon situation. The speed will allow the hit tool to play up, which may mitigate a bit of the bat's value lost from the lack of power.

The R and SB totals are going to win many a fantasy title (especially the later stat), but it's not as if he's going to be a replacement level guy at the MLB in real life either. He's going to provide a lot of dWWAR and bWAR on the basepaths and in center, respectively. It's not just SB on the basepaths either; it's going 1st to 3rd, and 1st to home on balls hit to the gaps (e.g. Mike Trout- that's not a comp).

Mar 22, 2013 08:52 AM

rating: 3

Behemoth

People overemphasise the likely impact of Hamilton in fantasy, given that he won't be told to go up and steal every time he's on base. If he does that in blowouts, he'll get a fastball in the ribs, because baseball somehow thinks that's how things should be done. There will be other situations when it's better for him not to risk a steal - do you want to take the bat out of Votto's hands, for example - and the pitchers and catchers are, as discussed, more competent at the big league level. In terms of runs, he's not going to score many more than someone like Michael Bourn, who is fast, a good baserunner, gets on a lot and leads off.

Mar 22, 2013 09:52 AM

rating: 0

jdeich

Batters will also get drilled in the minors for stealing in a blowout. It's stupid and it hurts people, but it is done.

Billy Hamilton still stole all of the things. Everyone in the ballpark knew he was going. He stole on pitchouts. They could have replaced his signs with the manager yelling "HEY, BILLY WHO IS ON FIRST, STEAL ON THIS NEXT PITCH" through a bullhorn, and Hamilton yelling back "OK. I HEARD YOU AND WILL BE STEALING, GOOD SIR. FULL STOP." He would steal bases on a boat. He would steal bases with a goat.

Also, Michael Bourn has been worth +19 bWAR over the last 4 years. The Reds would be _thrilled_ with "no better than Michael Bourn", especially at Hamilton's salary.

Mar 22, 2013 11:05 AM

rating: 22

Behemoth

No disagreement that they would be delighted if he was as good as Bourn. The point I was making is that Michael Bourn doesn't win two categories outright for people in fantasy and Hamilton likely won't either.

The stealing in a blowout matters because the Reds won't let him do it in the majors, because they really don't want him getting hit every week. That makes a significant difference to the number of steals he can get.

Mar 23, 2013 04:54 AM

rating: 0

lopkhan00

A solid comment worthy of the plusses without it, but the Seussian reference was brilliant.

Mar 23, 2013 08:45 AM

rating: 2

jardinero

I saw Hamilton on the back fields at 2012 spring training and his speed is ridiculous, and he's a lot stronger than someone like Dee Gordon. He didn't rely on infield hits and bloops; he drove the ball into the gaps. But, as the scouting report notes, he probably won't hit too many over the fence, and that obviously limits the ceiling. I would have ranked Stephenson No. 1, even though he's less of a sure thing.

Mar 22, 2013 10:22 AM

rating: 1

sgrcuts

I'm not sure how not hitting HR's should ding him if thats not his game- as you stated, he has gap power, so while he won't hit many HR's, he'll hit tons of doubles and is a threat for a triple anytime he hits a double. If he had HR power he would be the best prospect in the game. What his game is now is one of the most, if not the most, unique prospect in a loooong time. If that speed makes that 5+ hit tool play to a 6, and he keeps the batting eye, he's a potential MVP candidate to me.

Mar 22, 2013 10:48 AM

rating: 0

cjrhgarmon

The "value" of Billy Hamilton depends on how you define "value." If you define value as expected marginal wins, then you may be right; he may be overvalued. However, can anyone in the minors match his entertainment value? The guy scored from second base on a routine ground out! He caught a ball on the warning track as a SS! I don't care if he bats .200. I'll pay full price for a ticket when the Reds are in town, just to see what he does on the bases and in the field. That is REAL value because it puts butts in the seats. Too often people in the sabremetric crowd forget that baseball is an entertainment product.

Mar 22, 2013 10:43 AM

rating: 3

batts40

I'd argue that nothing put more butts in the seats than winning than a guy who can run fast and do little else.

I sure as #@$% wasn't ponying up to see Tony Campana hit the basepaths (and I realize he's not as fast as BH).

I'm eager to see Hamilton as much as anybody, and I'm "buying" him as a prospect. But, he's gotta hit a little to have value.

Mar 22, 2013 11:03 AM

rating: 1

Adrian

Maybe, but I suspect that winning ballgames will put more butts in the seats than anything. MLB isn't the minor leagues, where a good portion of the audience is there to see individual players or prospects as opposed to cheering a specific team to victory. Minor league teams exist to develop players, not to win championships, so if all he brings to the Reds is "sideshow attraction" attendance, that isn't going to be enough.

That said, as a Reds fan, I'm obviously hoping he turns out more like Eric Davis-lite.

Mar 22, 2013 11:15 AM

rating: 0

RFKRFK

Yeah, but, in retrospect, would you much rather trade Devin Mesoraco or Yasmani Grandal in the Latos trade?

Mar 22, 2013 07:36 AM

rating: 1

Lou Doench

Considering Grandal's chemical indiscretions I'm happy with the outcome. (full disclosure: I'm far from a hawk on sports drugs, but I think its pretty stupid to flout the testing regimen.)

Mar 22, 2013 11:35 AM

rating: 1

backwardgalaxy

Billy Hamilton looks slow in that picture. He's hardly moving at all.

Mar 22, 2013 09:59 AM

rating: 13

JoeTetreault

Expanding on volzok's question above. Can Yorman figure it out and convert his toolshed into a mansion of game ready skills? Should I abandon the dream of Yorman, or can I cling insistently to it for at least one more season.

Mar 22, 2013 11:38 AM

rating: 0

R.A.Wagman

Jason, how does Jesse Winker compare to a 19 year old Christian Yelich?

Mar 23, 2013 07:11 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Not in the same league, imo. Yelich could win a batting title one day. Winker could be a plus hitter. I like Winker, but I don't think he is a special bat.

Mar 23, 2013 09:31 AM

R.A.Wagman

I get that, but I seem to recall that Yelich, after being drafted, was not thought of as highly as he is now. IIRC, the word on Yelich 6 months after turning pro was similar to what you wrote of Winker now.
That said, even if I am right, that does not mean that Winker would develop in the same way.
For reference, here is what KG wrote of Yelich in 2010 (6 months into his career):
_____________________________________
The Good: Yelich has one of those sweet left-handed swings that get scouts excited. It's ultra smooth with plenty of bat speed, and he's capable of driving balls out when he gets his long arms extended, with some projecting average-to-plus power down the road once his lanky frame fills out. He's a good athlete with a tick above-average speed and good outfield skills.
The Bad: Yelich needs to hit, as while he's athletic enough to be a fine outfielder, he lacks the arm for right and the true plus speed to play up the middle. While he makes hard contact, he'll need to fill out to meet his power projections.Perfect World Projection: He could be a middle-of-the-order hitter.
Fantasy Impact: He can bring a good batting average with a handful of stolen bases, but the power will ultimately determine his ceiling.
_________________________________
I suppose it is a bit more praise than Winker received, but still a similar shape of praise.
Thanks for the answer.

Mar 23, 2013 12:42 PM

rating: 1

huztlers

Come on man. Nobody like to bring up actual past scouting reports. It is much easier to just scout based on recent reults.

Mar 24, 2013 18:45 PM

rating: 2

maphal

Chris Buckley and Terry Reynolds have done a very solid job in the last ten years. The Reds' drafts from 99-03 were horror shows.

Mar 23, 2013 19:07 PM

rating: 1

maphal

Joey Votto, not withstanding.

Mar 23, 2013 19:07 PM

rating: 0

Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.

<< Previous Article

Overthinking It: Ranki... (03/22)

<< Previous Column
Prospects Will Break Y... (03/19)

Next Column >>

Prospects Will Break Y... (03/28)

Next Article >>

Fantasy Tier Rankings:... (03/25)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS What You Need to Know: Yu Better Watch Out Baseball ProGUESTus: The Yankees' Post-River... Pebble Hunting: Blind BABIP Test, Part 2 Baseball Therapy: Is There a Pinch-Fielding ... The Call-Up: Wil Myers The Call-Up: Zack Wheeler Overthinking It: The Most Surprising Team Pe...	MORE FROM MARCH 22, 2013 Pebble Hunting: Lies, Damned Lies, And That ... Pitcher Profile: A Prospect, a Non-Prospect,... Rumor Roundup: Dearth of Infield Depth Raising Aces: Pulling the Pin Fantasy Freestyle: ROI: Keeper League Editio... Fantasy Mailbag: Profar or Taveras? Fantasy Tier Rankings: Shortstops
MORE BY JASON PARKS 2013-03-31 - The Call-Up: Jose Fernandez 2013-03-29 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2013 Organi... 2013-03-28 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Washington ... 2013-03-22 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Cincinnati ... 2013-03-19 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: The Magic o... 2013-03-15 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: New York Ya... 2013-03-14 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Backfields ... More...	MORE PROSPECTS WILL BREAK YOUR HEART 2013-04-03 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Backfields ... 2013-03-29 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: 2013 Organi... 2013-03-28 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Washington ... 2013-03-22 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Cincinnati ... 2013-03-19 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: The Magic o... 2013-03-15 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: New York Ya... 2013-03-14 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Backfields ... More...