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March 21, 2013
Baseball Therapy
Is Brandon Inge Worth 10 Wins Behind Closed Doors?
by Russell A. Carleton
Brandon McCarthy thinks that Brandon Inge is worth 10 wins or so to a team behind closed doors. Jonny Gomes, too. Participating in a player panel at the SABR Analytics Conference earlier this month, McCarthy posited that if Inge and Gomes had been removed from the 2012 Oakland A's, they might have fallen from a 94-win team to a 70-win team, purely by virtue of being deprived of the effect the two players had in the clubhouse. According to WARP, Gomes was worth 2.2 wins last year, while Inge was worth 0.6. So, assuming that if neither had been on the team, they would have been replaced by... well, replacement level players, that means that Inge and Gomes somehow combined for 21.2 wins just by being good guys in the clubhouse.
Okay, so maybe McCarthy was exaggerating. Maybe the point that he wanted to make was that Inge and Gomes were fun to be around in the clubhouse and that that helped him and other players out quite a bit. Maybe he wasn't trying to be accurate to the third decimal place—or even the tens place. He just wanted to say that he believes that these sorts of things can make a difference on the field. But it does raise a question that I seem to be visiting a lot lately. What measurable difference can a player make behind the scenes?
McCarthy, now with the Arizona Diamondbacks, spoke to AZ Central's Nick Peicoro afterward and explained the effect like this:
It sound[sic] stupid, but if you have a rookie that comes up and rookies are filled with self-doubt, filled with worry, and now you’re in the big leagues and you come to a team where nobody makes you feel welcome. So now you’re already nervous, you’re kind of worried about your lot, and then the guys around you, you’re not comfortable and you don’t feel like you’re one of them. You don’t feel kind of free and like you can do what you do. But if you have a guy like Jonny Gomes or Brandon Inge or someone who just comes up and is just kind of (BS-ing) with you and it just sort of loosens you up and then everyone else can kind of get in the mix... That loosens you up, which in turn the person you interactive[sic] with — there’s a whole trickle down effect to it that’s impossible to quantify but it does exist in there.” (emphasis is mine).
Was that a challenge?
Warning! Gory Mathematical Details Ahead!
This is going to be tricky (and very gory). We don't know what Inge or Gomes (or anyone else) did behind the scenes, except in the most general terms. Whom did they help? On what day? (MLBAM folks, we really need BFFf/x up and running soon.) We do, however, know what clubhouses they've been in and who else was in there. And we know, in general, how those guys did from year to year. It's a very rough-hewn method, and we'll talk about the limitations in a bit, but we're not totally in the dark when it comes to measuring the effect of a single player on his teammates over time.
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It strikes me that what you need are five to ten journeyman ballplayers who are also good clubhouse guys. That will give you pre and post data for the teams they travel through as well as control for team effects more effectively. Be useful to have a mix of hitters and pitchers as well.
They made a movie about that called "Major League". The Cleveland Indians won the World Series.
Agreed. Small sample sizes result in large sample errors, and sample size of one results in an error of one, especially in this case where a player's extended time on one team has a strong bias effect.