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March 18, 2013

Fantasy Auction Values

Fifth Edition, March 18

by Mike Gianella

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Next weekend, Jason Collette, Paul Singman, and I will be representing Baseball Prospectus in Tout Wars. Jason will be in the AL-only pool, Paul will handle the mixed format, and I will tackle the NL-only side. Just like with LABR, there will be plenty of updates based on how the experts profess their opinions with their bid prices.

For now, let’s get right into this week’s updates...

American League Hitters

David Ortiz — $16 (previous: $19)
The likelihood is increasing that Big Papi won’t be available for Opening Day, with some pessimistic reports suggesting he might miss all of April. For an aging DH-only type, Ortiz’s bid was probably too high anyway. I may move it down again in the next update.

Michael Brantley —  $12 (previous: $10)
I initially moved Brantley and Drew Stubbs’ bid prices down after the Indians signed Michael Bourn, thinking that both outfielders might both lose playing time. But Nick Swisher is moving to first, and both Brantley and Stubbs should start. Brantley isn’t a world-beater but in AL-only formats, he has some sneaky value.

Mark Teixeira — $12 (previous: $14)
The likelihood that Teixeira will need season-ending surgery has increased, according to a report by Stephania Bell of ESPN, but the Yankees say that he has a 70 percent chance of avoiding the knife. As with Ortiz, this bid may need to be revisited in the near future.

Brennan Boesch — $3 (previous: $1)
The Yankees signed Boesch last week. When Curtis Granderson returns, it’s likely that Boesch will wind on the bench, but he should get a good 40-60 games of play, and Yankee Stadium suits his left-handed power swing.

American League Pitchers

Casey Janssen — $12 (previous: $10)
The health reports on the Blue Jays’ closer look better than they did at this time last week, improving the odds that Janssen will be able to answer the bell on Opening Day.

Ernesto Frieri — $6 (previous: $8)
I haven’t heard anything particularly optimistic about Ryan Madson, but unless Frieri blows the doors off, the ninth-inning job is Madson’s when he returns. With Mike Scioscia talking about handing save opportunities to Scott Downs, Sean Burnett, the Rally Monkey, and that peanut vendor with a good arm, this is one of those fantasy situations that offers too much uncertainty for my tastes.

Erasmo Ramirez — $3 (previous: $8)
This was a tough one. Like every other numbers-oriented fantasy analyst, I’ve got good feelings about the Eraser. But both Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times and Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider believe that Jon Garland has a strong chance of cracking the rotation, leaving the Mariners to decide between Ramirez and Blake Beavan for the fifth spot. Baker believes there are open questions about whether or not Ramirez is ready for a full season of major-league innings. Nothing is official yet, but everything I’m reading makes me believe that Ramirez is going to Triple-A. This price cut might be too severe, but I’m not paying $8 for a pitcher who is likely to start the year in the minors.

National League Hitters

David Wright — $30 (previous: $32)
Wright suffered a strained intercostal muscle during the World Baseball Classic, putting his status for Opening Day is in doubt. The bid could go down more if the news gets worse this coming week.

Carl Crawford — $18 (previous: $14)
Last week, I moved Crawford down significantly; this week, I changed direction, moving up back up somewhat. He has played well in a handful of minor-league spring training games, and while he still won’t be ready for Opening Day, he might be back sooner than initially believed. The upside is still here, and the contract means that Crawford will play.

Carlos Quentin — $12 (previous: $14)
Quentin suffered a mild knee injury, but his previous injury history, combined with the fact that he’s had significant knee issues in the past, gives me pause. Like with Crawford, there’s some profit built into this price, but unlike with Crawford, the ceiling isn’t nearly as high.

Danny Espinosa — $12 (previous: $15)
Steve Lombardozzi — $4 (previous: $2)
Espinosa keeps moving down. There haven’t been any particularly negative reports; this is solely based on my suspicion that Espinosa will need surgery at some point during the season. Lombardozzi moves up as a direct result.

Domonic Brown — $11 (previous: $9)
The reports on Brown are glowing. Yes, it’s spring training, but a number of Phillies watchers have been impressed by Brown’s new-and =-improved swing. This is still a modest bid if Brown is starting all year long; of course, that’s why the bid is relatively conservative. Brown has to prove that he can maintain his performance in April and beyond.

Logan Morrison — $9 (previous: $11)
It has been confirmed that Morrison won’t be ready for Opening Day. He could be a bargain at this price, but Morrison wasn’t a top-shelf player in the first place.

Chris Johnson — $3 (previous: $5)
Logan Forsythe — $2 (previous: $4)
These adjustments probably should have been made last week. I believe Juan Francisco and Jedd Gyorko will start at their respective positions in Atlanta and San Diego, and there isn’t enough upside with their understudies to bid more than $2-3.

National League Pitchers

Roy Halladay — $15 (previous: $19)
Zack Greinke — $15 (previous: $23)
More than a few analysts on Twitter loudly proclaimed that if they were drafting today, they wouldn’t touch Halladay or Greinke in any format. That’s well and good if you’re in a shallow league, but deep-league players have to make a call. While these cuts might seem fairly draconian, there are good reasons to go this far down in both cases.

Greinke’s earnings since 2010: $14, $18, and $23. Setting a bid limit somewhere in the middle of his prior earnings if his injury turns out to be significant isn’t as conservative as it looks. Halladay might bounce back, but at age 36, he might not be the same pitcher he once was. If I’m wrong and Halladay returns to elite form, then I lose out, but this bid addresses the possibility that the future won’t be so rosy.

Gio Gonzalez — $22 (previous: $20)
Gonzalez had been a bit too low. He’s not quite in the elite tier of starters, but he should have been closer to these pitchers than I had him previously.

Bobby Parnell — $11 (previous: $8)
Frank Francisco — $4 (previous: $2)
The Mets have all but announced that Parnell is the closer, and even Francisco admitted as much this past week. Francisco’s large contract doesn’t seem to matter; the Mets appear committed to giving Parnell a legitimate opportunity to take over the ninth inning.

Jonathan Broxton — $11 (previous: $13)
The noises coming out of Reds camp about Aroldis Chapman closing again have intensified. If you’re drafting in the next couple of days, this is a tough decision: Chapman will have value in any role, but Broxton is nearly worthless in fantasy if he’s not closing. If Chapman is officially named the closer, I’ll slash Broxton’s bid immediately.

Shelby Miller — $9 (previous: $7)
Health reports on Miller are more promising than they were two weeks ago, so the price bounces back up.

Kyuji Fujikawa — $7 (previous: $6)
I doubt Carlos Marmol gets traded before Opening Day, but the Cubs would love to move him. When that happens, Fujikawa will get the first chance to close. My guess is that Fujikawa finishes with more saves than Marmol, at least in a Cubs uniform.

Edinson Volquez — $5 (previous: $3)
This is a pure valuation reassessment. Volquez strikes out too many hitters to be as low as he was in the bid limits.

Wily Peralta — $4 (previous: $2)
Peralta looks like he could break camp with the Brewers as their fifth starter, so the bid moves up. His minor-league profile is fairly strong, but the expert bid prices make it appear that Peralta is flying under the radar.

Patrick Corbin — $3 (previous: $1)
Tyler Skaggs — $3 (previous: $5)
Corbin seems to be the favorite to join the Diamondbacks as their fifth starter, which would send Skaggs back to Triple-A.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mike's other articles. You can contact Mike by clicking here

Related Content:  Logan Morrison

17 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Robotey

Right on cue, D Brown hit a bomb today against the Phils -- then again everyone went deep in this game -- it's still only the 6th inning

Mar 18, 2013 11:57 AM
rating: 0
 
grandslam28

Hey Mike
What do you think of this proposal. 12 team mixed league and i have 5 good corner infielders so i'm looking to trade one. He has Alvarez at third and said he was looking to upgrade
Offered
Ryan Zimmerman
Alexeii Ogando
John Jaso
Carlos Marmol
for
Weiters
Darvish
Putz
Thought this was an incredibly fair offer, but he thought it was ridiculous.
Thoughts?

Mar 18, 2013 12:28 PM
rating: 0
 
Peter Hood

I would definitely want the Wieters/Darvish side. He'll have to drop a player to roster the extra body - fact #1 to consider - probably Alvarez dropped or to the bench - same difference.

Putz >>> Marmol
Wieters >>> Jaso
Darvish >>> Ogando

so the question is how much better than Alvarez is Zimmerman. Not enough IMO to justify the trade.

Mar 18, 2013 15:28 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

While Zimmerman might arguably be the best player in the deal, I feel like the other three all have less value in mixed than they do in only. In a deeper league, this might be fairer, but I feel that in shallow Zimmerman gets moved with three guys that - while possibly useful in a mixed - aren't much better than your typical FA. Meanwhile, Wieters, Darvish and (to a lesser extent) Putz are harder to replace.

Mar 18, 2013 16:33 PM
 
grandslam28

Thanks for the response. The depth of the league is 14 playable hitter per team. Not sure if that was deep enough. But in terms of total dollar value, it is within a few dollars per your valuation & HQs valuations also.

Mar 18, 2013 21:01 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Knowing it is 14-team makes me think it is a better offer than if it were a 12-team.

Mar 19, 2013 06:23 AM
 
polishwonder

This is great, but I'd like to ask a favor. Would you give us a downloadable CSV file with the information & also format the names in the same manner as the reports from the PFM. That way we could cross reference data from the 2 sources. Thanks

Mar 18, 2013 14:24 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

I've been asked this via e-mail. This is a great idea...but not something Baseball Prospectus is offering this year. You can drag an copy the tables into Excel. I realize that this isn't a perfect solution, but I tried it earlier and it wasn't particularly difficult or time consuming.

I have proposed adding this feature for 2014.

Mar 18, 2013 16:35 PM
 
polishwonder

That's what I've been doing to & then reformatting the names so that I can do a cross reference. We used to have to do this with almost everything & this is the only one left. It would just make it a lot easier when updates come out to incorporate that data into my database. Thanks for responding.

Mar 20, 2013 07:13 AM
rating: 0
 
polishwonder

Actually, the name formatting is the more time consuming part of this. The rest of the products use a format of last name, first name while this one is opposite. I now how to reformat them in Excel, it's just time consuming.

Mar 20, 2013 07:15 AM
rating: 0
 
Matthew W

Use these formulas, then it's just a cut and paste:
=search(A1," ")
=lenb()
=left(x,y)
=Right(x,y)
=A1&", "&A2

1) With the combination of these forumlas, you sniff out the SPACE between first and last name.

2) You can use LEFT to get just the first name (result of search, -1),

3) Then you can use LENB() to get the number of characters in the name

4) Use RIGHT(), using results of LENB, minus Results of SEARCH

5) Use the string to recombine your first and last name in the format of the PFM.

A lot of forcasts and results use standard naming, so this will help tremendously in saving time.

(I know I didn't spell it out exactly, which is too convoluted, but these are the tools you need to do it.)

Cheers,

Mar 20, 2013 09:14 AM
rating: 0
 
davinhbrown

appriciate the updates. Good work.

Mar 18, 2013 17:56 PM
rating: 0
 
kddean

Will there be another update before my draft on the 31st?

Also, how does Headley's injury affect his value now?

Mar 19, 2013 06:01 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

There will be updates every week from now through Friday, April 5. As the season gets closer, there will be more frequent updates that I will try to blast out through my Twitter (@MikeGianella) as well. Headley's price will be downgraded shortly.

Mar 19, 2013 06:25 AM
 
BurrRutledge

Mike, any chance we can get an updated post on Friday afternoon or Saturday morning For those of us drafting this weekend? Any way to separate SPs from RPs is doubly appreciated.

Best,
Burr

Mar 19, 2013 20:17 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

No post, but I will updating the prices in the tables frequently.

I'll ask about the pitcher split, but at this late juncture not sure it's something that's possible.

Mar 20, 2013 04:59 AM
 
BurrRutledge

Okay, thank you.

Mar 20, 2013 05:09 AM
rating: 0
 
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Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (03/15)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Auction Values... (03/11)
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