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March 15, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects

State of the Farm: “One, two, three, four. Can I have a little more?”

Prospect rankings primer

The Top Ten

1. Gary Sanchez
Position: C
DOB: 12/02/1992
Height/Weight: 6’2’’ 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: International free agent, 2009, Dominican Republic
2012 Stats: .297/.353/.517 at Low-A Charleston (68 games); .279/.330/.436 at High-A Tampa (48 games)
The Tools: 6 potential hit; 6+ potential power; 7 arm

What Happened in 2012: After a return trip to Charleston to start the season, Sanchez eventually hit his way to High-A, where the bat continued to turn heads while the glove continued to remind people that the bat turned heads.

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49 comments have been left for this article.

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Behemoth

A couple of quick questions, if that's OK. Does your overall view and ranking of Sanchez take a significant possibility of him moving off the position into account? I get that a 6 bat with a 4 glove at catcher is very valuable, but I'd imagine you couldn't go much lower than a 4 without being pretty much unplayable at the big league level. How well will the bat play elsewhere, and would elsewhere have to be first or would there be other options?

On Austin, the impression I'm getting is that you still have significant questions in your own mind as to exactly how the power will play, and that this is really the key to how much of a prospect he'll end up being. Is that fair?

Mar 15, 2013 04:37 AM

rating: 0

mranney

What were thoughts on Bryan Mitchell, Ravel Santana, and Ramon Flores ?

Mar 15, 2013 05:18 AM

rating: 0

captnamerca

If Sanchez ends up moving to 1B, does he still have the profile to be an impact player there?

Mar 15, 2013 05:18 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

The bat has the potential to play anywhere on the diamond.

Mar 15, 2013 07:20 AM

Dan W.

So they signed Ramirez as a 17-year old in 2007; he's been in their system ever since but hasn't progressed past high-A. Is there an injury history there, or is he just slow-moving - and if so, is that cause for concern?

Mar 15, 2013 07:56 AM

rating: 0

Dan W.

[Oops - responded to wrong post - sorry.]

Mar 15, 2013 07:56 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Yes. As mentioned in the risk factor, he holds a high risk because of a history with injuries. He wasn't a fast mover to begin with, but injuries have certainly slowed the progress.

Mar 15, 2013 07:58 AM

Dan W.

Got it. Wasn't sure exactly how much of the slow progress to allocate to "injury resume" vs. "late bloomer" or some such.

Mar 15, 2013 08:14 AM

rating: 0

SC

With his arm, is 3B or RF a possibility?

Mar 15, 2013 10:45 AM

rating: 0

SC

Parks answered on twitter:

"2 runner, 1b only."

Mar 15, 2013 11:09 AM

rating: 0

jacksonreams

Any thoughts on Luis Torrenz? I realize he is eons away. I have not seen much of a report on that guy. Thanks in advance!

Mar 15, 2013 05:18 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

One of the bigger names on the 2012 J2 market; signed for seven-figures; converted to catcher; big offensive potential in the stick; project behind the plate. He could be a slow mover because of the developmental demands of the position.

Mar 15, 2013 07:34 AM

deacon14

Did you have Ramirez this high before spring training (obviously ignoring yesterday's debacle)?

Mar 15, 2013 06:21 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Yes.

Mar 15, 2013 07:20 AM

accies

As ever, thanks for a very detailed report. I noticed that Michael Pineda does not appear among the "Top 10 under 25". Is his omission deliberate, or is it a case of "not in park, out of mind"?

Mar 15, 2013 06:35 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I'll let Zach speak up on the U25, but it might be because of the injury and the uncertainty surrounding that.

Mar 15, 2013 07:19 AM

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

Hey thanks for the good words. The reason I left out Pineda is based on the fact that I have not heard a single positive report on him since he was traded to the Yankees organization. The shoulder injury really worries me. Also I am worried about the body which could get away from him. All in all Pineda has the raw ability to be on this list, but I ran into to many question marks to feel confident about placing him in the top 10.

Mar 15, 2013 07:38 AM

John Carter

Wow. That's the sort of very significant info, I wish we subscribers had better access to. Isn't injury intelligence just as important as prospect scouting? Do we need to ask you about specific players? Do labrum surgeries have the worse success rate? Is each case far more different from others as compared to Tommy John surgeries that are usually very similar and therefor more routine?

Mar 15, 2013 10:58 AM

rating: 0

John Carter

Please, show yourself, whoever is dinging me - and explain. I'm using my real name - as boring as that is compared to Hoot Stromboli or hotstatrat as I used years earlier. I'm doing my best to only make insightful sincere comments that I feel are worth sharing. What is your problem with almost with everything I write?

Mar 15, 2013 13:47 PM

rating: 0

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

Hey John it wasn't me dinging you. You bring up great points when it comes to injuries. As a person who had shoulder troubles I understand that the road to recovery is much less clear as compared to elbow injuries. I have no exact numbers for you, but the way its always been explained to me it is much easier to fix elbows than shoulders. I hope this is the sort information you are looking for.

Mar 15, 2013 14:24 PM

John Carter

Thanks, Zach. My idea would be to see something tied to the Injury Beta on the Player Card. That was a nice step in this direction. It needs now a link or some indication of expected recovery time and what percentage of a pitcher's ability (established before his injury) that will most likely be recovered. If it is unknown, it should give the ranges of potential outcomes, the best guess, and the chances of that guess being essentially the right one. I know that's a lot of work, but I'd certainly pay more for BP to have that.

On Pineda in particular, I thought I read somewhere that the Yankees were expecting a mid season return. I forget that often team reports are extremely optimistic. Living in Toronto, I kept hearing the last four years how Dustin McGowan was going to come back. I guess we can stop waiting.

Mar 15, 2013 15:16 PM

rating: 1

ScottyB

Your points are valid, but your comment came off as complaining and pestering our writer because he didn't give you the info you wanted. Thant's why it was dinged.

Oh, and your movie sucked, too ;)

Mar 16, 2013 19:16 PM

rating: 2

Richard Bergstrom

John, you should know by now that the minusbats never come forth even on quality posts.

Mar 20, 2013 14:37 PM

rating: 0

DeathSpeculum

wow, shocked at the 6 on the FB of jose campos. heard he was throwing easy 100's last winter. was that just in bursts?

with the control and at least plus arm strength, i thought he was one of the higher ceiling pitchers in the minors with a huge chance to rise up lists this year, until the arm fell off. am i a little too optimistic about his upside and future potential?

Mar 15, 2013 06:40 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Depending on the source, its a 6/7 pitch. As a starter, he normally works low-90s, and can go get 95+, but the command wobbles at the higher velo. Grades for most players could change if they only worked in bursts, and because Campos projects as a starter, I wanted to profile him as such.

Mar 15, 2013 07:29 AM

Scott44

Sanchez sounds similar to Wilin Rosario, would that be a best case outcome?

Mar 15, 2013 07:19 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I think Rosario is a better all-around catcher than Sanchez, but I think Sanchez could have the better bat. Rosario is a very good hitter, but his home park really sticks a needle in the numbers.

Mar 15, 2013 07:24 AM

jfribley

Not a single mention of Cito Culver--is he totally off the radar? I remember on Up and In back when he was drafted, Kevin (I think it was Kevin) was making the argument that the Yankees probably knew something we didn't, and so we should give them the benefit of the doubt. Does Culver go some way towards tilting the balance to the "wisdom of the crowd" side which said, "they drafted who?" and drafting Culver in the first round was just bad drafting, or is it just rotten luck/vagaries of the development process?

Mar 15, 2013 07:48 AM

rating: 0

Behemoth

No, it's one guy. By all means, look at all those picks that were seen as reaches and see how much success they have compared with those that were expected to go at that point in the draft, but the fact that a late first round pick didn't work out doesn't tell you much. It happens quite often.

Mar 15, 2013 07:51 AM

rating: 0

jfribley

Culver was different from a reach in that basically no one had ever heard of him.

Mar 15, 2013 07:55 AM

rating: 1

Jason Parks

BP staff

KG did mention that, and at the time it had merit. But I've seen Culver numerous times since he was drafted, and I just don't see the upside. I don't think he was ever destined to be a star, but the tool package (especially on defense) had promise, and the premium position on the diamond justified the pick. You hit on some and miss on others, and from that same draft, the Yankees hit on Mason Williams and Tyler Austin.

Mar 15, 2013 07:56 AM

ScottyB

Wither Betances and Banuelos?

Mar 15, 2013 07:58 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

One will miss all of 2013 with TJ; was falling down the list before the injury. The other has 20-grade command and is unlikely to find any mechanical consistency. Assuming he comes back to form, you can make a case for Banuelos, although only in the back-end of the top ten. I don't see a case for Betances.

Mar 15, 2013 08:01 AM

JoeTetreault

Jason and Zach, do you expect Gumbs to repeat at Charleston or does he move up the ladder to Tampa on the basis that he flashed enough brilliance in his injury shortened season?

Mar 15, 2013 08:16 AM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

I think Gumbs is ready to play at HIgh-A; real test for Gumbs and his aggressive approach will come in AA.

Mar 15, 2013 08:24 AM

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

I'm bullish on Gumbs I think he starts in Hi-A. He has the potential to shoot up this list.

Mar 15, 2013 08:51 AM

JoeTetreault

Thanks to you both. I became a believer in Gumbs reading Jason's reports on him from Staten Island and am looking forward to his continued progression.

Mar 15, 2013 08:56 AM

rating: 0

bozarowski

Very small nitpick - Ichiro is a free agent after 2014 as the Yankees gave him a 2 year deal.

Mar 15, 2013 09:14 AM

rating: 0

Ben Lindbergh

BP staff

Fixed.

Mar 15, 2013 11:59 AM

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

good catch, for the life of me I thought it was a one year deal with Ichiro. Essentially my point was that the Yankees have the necessary means to fill gaps long term.

Mar 15, 2013 14:29 PM

Benjamin Harris

How good of a hitter is Greg Bird?

Mar 15, 2013 14:45 PM

rating: 0

dbertelli

Where is Pat Venditte?!?! Waiting to see that ambidextrous cheese in the majors.

Mar 15, 2013 15:34 PM

rating: 1

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

Mar 15, 2013 15:38 PM

JoshT

You can rank Austin ahead of Hensley, but personally I think it's a Ty.

Mar 15, 2013 16:23 PM

rating: 4

randolph3030

Booooooooooooo

Mar 15, 2013 17:56 PM

rating: 0

Zach Mortimer

BP staff

Austin is a city in Texas, obviously breaks the tie.

Mar 15, 2013 21:15 PM

randolph3030

Hensley used to be a town in Texas, ghost town breaks the tie?

"HENSLEY, TEXAS. Hensley, in southeastern Jack County, was named for the J. A. Hensley family, who settled in the area after the Civil War. At one time it was on the Butterfield Overland Mail route from Jacksboro, eight miles to the northwest. In the late 1890s Hensley became a flag station on the Burlington, St. Louis-San Francisco rail line. The area around Hensley remained sparsely settled by cattle ranchers, and when the railroad abandoned its line in Jack County, the community apparently ceased to exist." - Texas State Historical Society

Mar 16, 2013 11:21 AM

rating: 1

jharrison3

Jason, what do you know about Tyson Blaser? I am pretty sure he's just an org guy.. But he's from around my area (small town area, so he's a big deal) and wanted to know if there's any potential there. Thanks.

Mar 16, 2013 16:46 PM

rating: 0

Jason Parks

BP staff

Org guy; role 3/4 type; strong; limited hitability; 5 arm; 4 glove; 4 hit; 2 run; 2 power.

Mar 16, 2013 17:01 PM

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<< Previous Article

Raising Aces: Trending... (03/15)

<< Previous Column

Prospects Will Break Y... (03/14)

Next Column >>
Prospects Will Break Y... (03/19)

Next Article >>

Fantasy Auction Values... (03/18)

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