Prospects Will Break Y... (03/01)
Fantasy Auction Values... (02/25)
12 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 4, 2013 Fantasy Auction ValuesThird Edition, March 4This is the third installment of Baseball Prospectus’s 2013 5x5 bid limits for 12-team National League, American League, and mixed league Rotisserie-style formats. While the first two installments were based mostly, if not entirely, on my own opinions and predilections, this installment is influenced by a second opinion: expert auction prices. The League of Alternate Baseball Reality (or LABR, as it’s more commonly known) expert auctions took place over the weekend in Phoenix, Arizona. (The CBS Analyst League auctions took place were held online last Tuesday and Thursday.) LABR is the more renowned league, but both auctions give me my first opportunity to see how “realistic” my prices are compared to the market. Brett Anderson is a terrific example. In my AL-only bid limits, I had Anderson at $10, but he went for $19 in CBS and $17 in LABR. While I think both of those prices are too high, I’m willing to concede that my price may have been somewhat low. My concerns about Anderson pitching a full season remain, but there is no doubt that when he is on the field, his earnings-per-inning are terrific. Below are some other significant changes from last week’s update to this one. I’ll note whether or not they were influenced by the expert auctions in the notes. (Note: National League LABR started at 7 p.m. EST on Sunday night. There will be some bid updates stemming from that, but due to the timing of the auction, no written updates until next week.) Mark Trumbo — $18 (previous: $15)
|
Surprise Me!
Hey Mike-
Thanks for doing this. It's nice to see an expert's compilation and compare it to my own. PECOTA PFM is a nice starting point, but your values puts some additional context to those numbers. With that in mind, I have questions about two pitchers values in particular: Wade Miley and Dan Haren.
For Wade Miley, various projection systems are predicting ERA's 4 - 4+ (PECOTA 4.65, FANS/ZiPS 3.90) with a K/9 south of 7.0. Considering the D-Backs are probably a .500-ish team, why is his NL only value $15 ($6 mixed), ahead of Samardzija, Beckett, and Haren? I mean, even Cahill is only $10 ($1 mixed), and if there's a decent comp for Miley, it's Cahill. Is there some upside play here I'm not seeing?
As for Haren, while PECOTA certainly rates him too highly, he's probably going to give 170 - 190 innings of 3.5-ish ERA, 7.5-8.0 K/9 and a solid 1.2-ish WHIP with the change to the easier league and miserable Mets, Marlins, and Phillies offenses upon which to feast. His fastball is back up in the 91-93 range so far this spring (salt grain taken) and he has an excellent history. Yet there he is behind guys like Burnett (who's 4 years older with a rougher history), Tim Hudson (who's 5 years older), and Miley. In NL only, you give him the same $12 value as Garza (who projects to be about as good as Haren but with 5/6 the season). Is his low value a reflection of the market or your concerns about his health/fastball velocity/bad facial hair?