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February 13, 2013

Fantasy Beat

The Closer Matrix

by Jason Collette

One of the first pieces I wrote for Baseball Prospectus outlined my strategy for identifying closers, and the article was so well received that I repeated it with a couple of tweaks last season. After I read the comments from one user who utilized the strategy and won his league’s saves category, it was a given that the piece would come back again in 2013. Some of the pitcher notes I made in the 2012 closer matrix included:

• Andrew Bailey:  “Hasn’t thrown 50 innings since 2009, buyer beware.”
• Heath Bell: “K% dropped 10 points, Marlins should have given money to Stanton.”
• Jose Valverde: “K% has dropped six straight seasons. That won’t end.”
• Joe Nathan: “Solid second half masked by awful first half.”
• Jason Motte: “BB% down three straight seasons.”
• Sergio Romo: “BB% improved three straight seasons and K% is unworldly.”

The premise of the strategy is simple: closers are born to fail. Year after year, a noticeable percentage of ninth-inning men get hurt or lose their jobs. As we learned last month, relievers who went undrafted in the 15-team Mixed ToutWars auction accounted for 227 saves last year, though saves were rather scarce in single-league formats, as only six free-agent relievers reached double digits. That was an anomaly, and you should not let one year with an u