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February 12, 2013 Prospects Will Break Your HeartTampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects
State of the Farm: “Hold your head up, you silly girl, look what you've done. When you find yourself in the thick of it, help yourself to a bit of what is all around you, silly girl.” The Top Ten
What Happened in 2012: As it turns out, a healthy Myers is a monster Myers, as the 21-year-old put all questions from the 2011 season to rest by mashing at two levels and emerging as a top 10 prospect in baseball.
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Surprise Me!
Chris Archer needs to go to bed earlier.
Last year KG said Matt Moore had #1/ace upside, this year you have his upside as a #2. Is that a case of different people/different opinions, or has something about his stuff/projection been revised downward?
Also, it's interesting to me that Guerreri is repeatedly described as "athletic", but there is some concern that he won't get his previous velocity back. I'd think velocity projection and overall athleticism would go hand-in-hand -- is there something specific that scouts look for that portends higher velocity in young arms?
Moore had a 23% K% (17th in the majors) as a rookie. He got better over the summer before a rough September. He's still got ace potential to me.
I did the under 25 writeup, so I'll comment on that.
Moore undoubtedly has the pure stuff of an ace, but the vast majority of the scouts I've spoken to (and this is an opinion that I agree with) believe the command and overall feel will never develop quite enough for him to be considered an "ace." Sure, there's always a very slight chance that he reaches that potential (as there is with Hellickson, given his youth and pitchability), but I see a #2 ceiling as much more realistic.
To answer your question on Moore, though, I think it's a little of A, and a little of B.
I still think he's going to be a very good major league starting pitcher. I just don't see him quite reaching that elite level of starting pitchers.
How is Hellickson better than moore.... there is no question that moore is better.
Clearly there is some question....
Yes, i noticed after i posted the question :P
This is where i see them
Hellickson is a strong number 3 pitcher because of his lack of k's and he always outpitches his FIP and stuff like that. Some pitchers are like that anyways. Moore has much better stuff, he is a much better strikeout pitcher, he showed flashes of brilliance which leads me to believe that there is small chance he isnt an Ace/#2 starter. I still completely believe in him, its his first MLB season and he pitched very well. Not amazingly but he pitched good and im expect to see improvements from him.
You make a very good case. I feel the same way, except I might view Hellickson slightly higher.
Hellickson' s command isn't great either, and both have flyball tendencies. This is the first time I've seen Hellickson over Moore.
Just because a pitcher is athletic doesn't mean he will return to his high school velocity. As professionals, pitchers are throwing more often and against much better competition. It's quite common to see lower velocity. When projecting velo, I look at the way the arm works and the overall projection of the body. It can take time to find your professional rhythm.
jason(s),
was it the ridiculously high floor that led to hellickson over matt moore for the under 25? i've always thought hellickson's ceiling to be more of a MOR guy with moore having ace stuff that far exceeds hellickson.
and when you scout a guy like hellickson, is the low k-rate and consistently mid 4 (or worse) FIP cause for concern? or does the stuff playup in a way that is possibly not detected by the numbers alone because of advanced feel and pitchability?
Good questions.
Moore has no-doubt ace stuff, and he'll flash that type of potential of times. But for me, a true "ace" needs to have a plus command/control profile as well; otherwise there's always going to be some inconsistency. I don't see Moore as a future plus command/control guy.
The low K rate on Hellickson is a slight concern and one that keeps him from being an ace, even though I like the stuff. He's not overpowering, but the changeup, developing command (and I think the command still has room to improve), and ability to manipulate his fastball gives me confidence that he's going to be a solid starting pitcher for a long, long time.
As I wrote in the U25 piece, it's a pitchability versus stuff question, and it's an intriguing debate with legitimate arguments on both sides. Moore might produce one or two seasons better than anything Hellickson does, but for me, Hellickson has the longer lifespan as a 2/3 type, and that staying power leads me to rank him over Moore.
Hope this explains it.