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February 7, 2013

The Keeper Reaper

Starting Pitching for 2/7/13

by Paul Sporer

Matt Harvey | New York Mets

Shallow (30 keepers): No
Medium (60 keepers): No
Deep (90 keepers): Fringe
NL-only (60 keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes

Harvey entered the year as the Mets’ top prospect, and Kevin Goldstein ranked him as the 25^th-best minor-league talent in all of baseball. Slated to start 2012 in Triple-A, there was reason to believe that Harvey would at least claim a cup of coffee with the big-league club, barring an injury or a poor first half. We know that statistics alone will never give you the whole picture on a prospect, since there is a multitude of variables to consider, and had the Mets judged Harvey by the box scores, his 1.32 WHIP and 10 percent walk rate might have precluded his summertime promotion.

However, the reports of those watching Harvey pitch were as bullish as ever, and on July 26, he made his major-league debut. Harvey jumped out of the gate, logging 5 1/3 shutout innings and 11 strikeouts in his opening salvo, and took off from there, recording six quality starts in 10 tries, plus two others that would have qualified had not been limited to five innings. He turned in only one dud—which, of all places, came against the Padres at Petco Park—allowing five runs in as many innings, but he still fanned five and walked only one in that outing, while proving that you really can’t predict baseball. Harvey’s 29 percent strikeout rate over 59 1/3 innings was the most impressive aspect of his debut, and inspires even more confidence in his future than his 2.73 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

What’s next?

The masses have bought-in to start the 2013 draft season, as Harvey has an ADP of 151 in the early NFBC data, putting him ahead of Anibal Sanchez, Lance Lynn, and teammate Jon Niese, to name a few. I understand the excitement around a young stud with superstar potential, but drafting Harvey too high places a significant burden on his immediate performance. If he doesn’t go out and put together a full season of better than league-average work, his 11^th round slotting (remember NFBC uses 15-teams) makes him a bust from a 2013-asset perspective.