February 4, 2013

The Keeper Reaper

Second, Short, and Catcher for 2/4/2013

by Josh Shepardson

Mike Napoli | Red Sox

Shallow (30 Keepers): No
Medium (60 Keepers): No
Deep (90 Keepers): Fringe
AL-Only (60 Keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 Keepers): Yes

After enjoying a breakout 2011 season, Napoli came back to earth in a big way last year, largely due to a sharp reversal in his batted-ball fortunes and an uptick in his whiffs. Despite a similar batted-ball profile, Napoli’s BABIP dropped from .344 in 2011 to .273 in 2012, a regression that was both predictable given his unsustainable 2011 luck and surprising because of its volume. The more concerning, and puzzling, change was that his strikeout rate rose from a career-low 19.7 percent in 2011 to a career-high 30 percent last season. I'll play the role of Captain Obvious and say that Napoli is neither as good as he was in 2011, nor as poor as he was in 2012, which means that he should once again be a low-batting-average hitter with considerable power. That gives him a lot of value at catcher.

Of course, Napoli will be a catcher in fantasy name only this year, since the Red Sox inked him to be their primary first baseman. That's potentially great news for fantasy owners, because by shedding the catcher's gear, Napoli should be able to play in more games and amass more plate appearances. More plate appearances mean more opportunities to launch home runs and pile up runs and RBIs, and those last two totals could also improve if—after hitting in the lower third of the Rangers’ order—he bats toward the middle of the Boston lineup.

There are some reasons for concern surrounding Napoli, most notably the hip condition (avascular necrosis) that caused him to fail his Red Sox physical and lose a three-year, $39 million contract earlier this winter. Our own Corey Dawkins and Stephani Bee discussed the injury at depth in late January, and I'd recommend reading their article to gain a better understa

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