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February 1, 2013 Overthinking ItIf I Had My BrothersB.J. and Justin Upton are brothers. They’re also both Braves, thanks to the November signing that brought B.J. to Atlanta and the trade last week in which Justin joined him. As one would expect, the Uptons are excited about the opportunity to be big-league teammates, which they’ve been hoping to have for years. Here are some quotes from a couple of the many stories written about the Uptons in the wake of the trade:
Over the past few seasons, both Uptons have been accused of being lazy, lacking effort, or not seeming sufficiently gritty. Maybe they’re actually guilty of those things, or maybe some combination of nature and nurture has bestowed upon both of them the deceptive appearance of not playing as hard as possible. Makeup, effort, or attitude problems are a convenient way to explain why two players who were each once ranked the second-best prospect in baseball have yet to become superstars, as well as why they’re some years removed from their most productive seasons despite being in or just entering their primes.
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It sure looks like both Alomar brothers benefited when they were reunited on the 1999 Indians.
What is it the control to these examples? Do all players achieve precisely their projections on the aggregate? Did you check for brothers who were reunited but one or the other did not play due to being released or injured?
Yes, on the whole the projections are very close to the observed stats. See Rob's response to a similar question the last time I used retro projections in an article (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=19425#131549). Same goes for TAv.
Didn't look for brothers who were in the same organization but never played together.
Thanks. It is a timely article.