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January 29, 2013 Fantasy BeatHidden Fantasy ValueThere is not an official set of commandments for fantasy players to follow when participating in an auction. If there were, it is almost certain that “thou shalt not leave any dollars on the table” would be one of them. The concept is simple: you have X fantasy dollars to spend in an auction, and it is your task to spend every last one of those dollars to fill your starting roster. Many things could go wrong in any auction that would prevent you from reaching that goal. Rookie mistakes include improperly accounting for in-draft inflation and being stuck with a lot more money than there is talent in the draft up to something as simple as poor math and finding out you have more money than you thought you had. The ironic thing here is that every owner in every league leaves money on the table in one form or another. While few leave actual auction dollars on the table, there are always undrafted players that go on to produce serious value. This happens in casual leagues, in serious leagues, and even in expert leagues. In looking at 15-team, 5x5, mixed-league dollar values from 2012, there were 336 players that produced at least $1 of fantasy production in 2012. Little did the 15 dignitaries of the Tout Wars mixed league know, they spent a combined $3900 imaginary dollars on players while not rostering 28.2 percent of the profitable players. Overall, here is how the dollars spent on the profitable players in 2012 broke down:
Here is a breakdown by position of the profitable players that went undrafted in the Tout Wars mixed draft:
In terms of raw production, these are the combined statistics of the 47 undrafted hitters who turned profits in 2012 produced: |
Surprise Me!
How did the unpurchased $1 players compare to the players who WERE picked up at auction for $1? I'd assume some of the players experts paid $1 for produced negative value, but others produced more. If I were betting I'd assume the experts generally got more value out of their dollars than the players left would provide, on average
Like an idiot, I deleted my hitter spreadsheet but I can tell you that the following pitchers went for $1 in the draft:
Aroldis Chapman
Lance Lynn
Jake Peavy
Ryan Vogelsong
Edinson Volquez
Jonathan Broxton
Ivan Nova
Addison Reed
$8 spent, $67 earned
In all, there were $56 pitchers that went for $1 or $0 but that group of pitchers earned $375 by season's end.
so then in this league the players drafted still returned more value than the "money left on the board." The idea that there was $X value unclaimed makes sense at least because the supply will always exceed the demand. Even in a league as deep as 15 teams, there are presumably some % of players available at any time who will end the season worth >$0.00.
In a roto league, especially, the players are long term investments so every manager is assuming the value will be returned eventually. I'd be more interested in knowing the success rate of these predictions. If we compared the values of players on draft day (with undrafted players valued at $0) against their value midseason, and then against their value at end of season, how does that value change? If a player was worth $0 in march, $5 in june, and $1 in September he could actually hurt a team rather than help it, depending on when he is acquired.