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January 23, 2013

The Keeper Reaper

First, Third, and DH for 1/23/13

by Michael Street

Manny Machado | Baltimore Orioles
Shallow (30 keepers): No
Medium (60 keepers): Yes
Deep (90 keepers): Yes
AL-only (60 keepers): Yes
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes

It’s easy to get excited about Machado, who was chosen third overall in 2010 and immediately rose to the top of Kevin Goldstein’s rankings of the Orioles farm system. Days before he was promoted last August, Jason Parks ranked him sixth overall among all minor league prospects.

Machado proved that confidence was well-placed by hitting three home runs and a triple in his first four games and finishing the season with a .262/.294/.445 line in 202 plate appearances. He hit four more long-balls for a total of lucky seven plus two steals and 26 RBI. Even better, he qualified as a fantasy shortstop, though he played in the majors at third base. All this, and he was still just a teenager.

Although those last two items are great reasons for Machado owners to be over the moon about him down the road, they’re also good reasons to be cautious about him in the near term. First, he’ll lose that shortstop qualification next season, since Buck Showalter says he’ll be playing the hot corner exclusively during spring training. Next, Machado is still young, with only 459 plate appearances at Double-A (and none at Triple-A) before his promotion. While this youth shows that he’s more valuable in the long term, one need only see how Bryce Harper (drafted two slots above Machado) fizzled in the second half of 2012 to remind us of the volatility of young players in the short term. Pitchers will adjust to Machado next season, exploiting the impatience reflected by his weak 4.5 percent walk rate, and his middling 18.8 percent strikeout rate is likely to rise.

In the long term, Machado is expected to be a stud at a thin position, and his 40 percent fly ball rate and 12 percent HR/FB rate say that his power output in 2013 wasn’t a fluke. He should be an All-Star for years to come, making him an easy keep in nearly all leagues, but his likely short-term instability should push him back into the player pool in the shallowest of leagues.

Garrett Jones | Pittsburgh Pirates
Shallow (30 keepers): No
Medium (60 keepers): No
Deep (90 keepers): No
NL-only (60 keepers): No
Super Deep (200 keepers): Yes