Ryan Braun is a future Hall of Famer. That was the consensus I arrived at after polling a few BP staffers last week. It’s a sensible position. Braun is one of the best players in the game by any measure. His power-speed combination might be the truest in the league. Since 2010, Braun ranks seventh in homers and 15th in steals. No player with more steals than Braun is within 30 home runs, and only Matt Kemp is within 10 tallies in both categories.
The Milwaukee outfielder isn’t merely a two-dimensional player, either. His True Average over the past three seasons ranks fourth among batters with 1,000 or more plate appearances (Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Joey Votto sit ahead). Even Braun’s defense, maligned during his early days as a third baseman, is passable nowadays, according to those who watch him the most, like Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker. Moore broke down Braun like this: decent range, iffy routes, and a strong arm, albeit with a slow and deliberate crow hop and accuracy issues.
So Braun is a great hitter and an okay defender. Big deal. Those descriptions apply to a few others throughout the league. What makes Braun special is his current pace. Braun is just the 16th player to reach 200 home runs and 100 stolen bases before his age-29 season (he has 202 home runs and 126 steals). The other 15 players are a combination of who’s who in baseball lore and players known for unfortunate burnouts after promising starts:
Players with 200-plus Home Runs and 100-plus Steals through Age 28
Player |
HR Thru 28 |
SB Thru 28 |
HR After 28 |
SB After 28 |
381 |
205 |
266 |
113 |
|
301 |
129 |
133 |
23 |
|
222 |
280 |
540 |
234 |
|
200 |
112 |
198 |
49 |
|
252 |
191 |
83 |
30 |
|
291 |
148 |
295 |
56 |
|
235 |
128 |
227 |
72 |
|
Ken Griffey Jr. |
350 |
143 |
280 |
41 |
320 |
112 |
216 |
41 |
|
243 |
101 |
136 |
41 |
|
218 |
126 |
345 |
102 |
|
201 |
121 |
105 |
21 |
|
207 |
199 |
402 |
35 |
|
234 |
123 |
215 |
58 |
|
250 |
179 |
410 |
159 |
Jackson, Mays, Mantle, and Robinson are Hall of Famers and Bonds, Griffey, Guerrero, and Sosa might be one day. All but five managed to hit 200 additional home runs from their age-28 seasons until the end of their career. Murphy faded quickly; Cepeda’s knees tormented him throughout his career, limiting him to four seasons as an everyday player after his age-28 season; Strawberry dealt with substance abuse demons; Jones fell out of shape; Sierra got in too good of shape (the added bulk supposedly limited his production). There’s no guarantee Braun avoids those fates—though he has avoided the disabled list to date—but you would probably lean toward him hitting at least 200 more home runs if you had to lean one way or the other.
Let’s take this one step further and see what Braun’s company tells us about his home run and stolen base production* as he ages. For an endpoint, let’s select age-37. That happens to be the last possible year of Braun’s contract, so it works as more than a way to curb the survivor bias and sample size issues wont to plague this kind of exercise.
*Some will wonder what kind of impact Bonds’ outlier stats have on the projections. The difference with and without Bonds is about three home runs. Huge on a micro level, less so on a macro basis like this.
Here’s how the results below work: Each player had change in his home run and stolen base per plate appearance noted for each individual season. The average of those changes were then applied to Braun through three playing time filters: 1) straight 650 plate appearances throughout; 2) a gentle 5 percent decline in playing time each season; and 3) a harsh 10 percent reduction in playing time each season. For perspective, Braun’s PECOTA projection through his age-37, and the players with at least that many home runs and stolen bases are included:
Braun’s Projected Career Numbers Through His Age-37 Season
Path |
Members |
||
Straight |
519 |
305 |
Bonds, Mays, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Sosa |
Gentle |
466 |
276 |
Bonds, Mays, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Sosa |
Harsh |
423 |
253 |
Joe Carter, Andre Dawson, Jones, Larry Walker |
434 |
310 |
Bonds, Dawson, Mays, Rodriguez |
In words: Braun is on his way to joining elite or near-elite company (save Carter’s inclusion). The kind of company he could keep in Cooperstown one day. Alas, writing about Braun’s Hall of Fame credentials means mentioning his overturned suspension for a failed performance-enhancing drug test. It’s possible that, by the time Braun is eligible (2026 if he retires after his age-37 season), the voters will no longer hold performance-enhancing drugs against players, or the overturned suspension against Braun. Unfortunately, an ossified take on these cases is too easy to envision.
The interesting difference between PECOTA and the aging curve method is the disagreement in stolen bases. You’ll notice how many of the 200/100 club members stopped running after this point in their careers. Braun is projected and expected to continue running, in part because his manager is Ron Roenicke, whom Brewers fans have nicknamed “Runnin’ Ron.” Ron, as it turns out, doesn’t run with everyone. Of the 20 players with the most plate appearances for the Brewers over the past two seasons, just three have set new career highs under Roenicke.
Intuitively, it would make sense for Braun to run less as he ages. That’s because sluggers are more likely to be on second or back in the dugout following their hits. But also because they gain bulk, and there’s no sense in risking injury. There’s no telling if or how Roenicke’s philosophy would change were Braun to pull a hamstring on a stolen base attempt. Hopefully, it won’t come to that, lest baseball be robbed of one of its best and rarest talents.
Special thanks to Ben Lindbergh for biographical research assistance and Dan Turkenkopf for mathematical and theoretical guidance.
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As I note below, I think the cloud of suspicion with Braun wont weigh very heavily, but he did fail a drug test, and he did get off on a technicality. Some voters may not like that.
As for whether the regfrigerator storage could actually affect it... Will Carroll wrote something about how the Braun team was able to prove that doing so could produce the elevated levels found that were reportedly found, but as far as I know now other journalist picked up on that, and he's, ahem, been wrong before.
I find it fascinating that already BP is banging the drum for Braun, and will run interference for his failed drug test, trying to whitewash it down the Memory Hole. There sure seems to be an agenda here. It is almost like there is an Internet Flash Mob ready to storm Cooperstown and demand that the Board of Trustees/BBWAA hand over the keys.
Has BP ever written its Apologia for PED use? I don't read every day but somehow they have come to the conclusion that cheating does not matter maybe they have a good case and I need to be educated.
Second, have you ever had a traffic ticket overturned in court because of a "technicality", like the cop not showing up? I know I have and my insurance company didn't make me prove I didn't actually go through the Stop sign, as I was charged with having done. When Ryan Braun and his attorney went to the arbitrator, the first thing they did was try and get the evidence thrown out, based on mishandling and the contractual violation which occurred. The arbitrator agreed and the case was over. Neither you nor I know whether Braun and his attorney had a line of attack on the evidence itself which would have won. Yet there seems to be an assumption of guilt here, even though there is nothing in his body type or his career arc which indicates the use of PEDs. A little fairness would be nice.
I also wonder how different his projection would look if you changed his age when doing the PECOTAs; for example, make his actual age-23 season his age-21 season, etc. Did anyone think Braun could play in the majors in 2005? 2006?
As for his being "guilty" - to continue the legal parallel, there was sufficient evidence to charge him with the "crime", based on the drug test evidence. The arbitrator is part of the process, no player is suspended until the process is finished. The evidence was thrown out, therefore he was guilty of nothing. What Braun was was the only player to ever have been announced to have failed a test prior to the completion of the process. If I was Ryan Braun, I would have been very inclined to sue MLB for slander, since the unprecedented release of drug test results, in violation of the contract between MLB and the MLBPA, caused grievous harm to his reputation. He chose not to, in an attempt to put this behind him. Maybe he was right - I don't know the answer.
That might be sufficient to get you off legally based on teh standard of proof required, but which sounds more likely?
1) Braun has systemically used PEDs since he first arrived in professional baseball, and still is. He managed to avoid getting caught until 2011, and when he got away with it, went right back to using, since his 2012 season was one of his best.
2) Something went wrong with the system. Maybe a false positive, maybe tampering with his sample - who knows? Someone in the system cared enough about screwing Braun to reveal the results of a confidential test, maybe that person did more.
My opinion is that 2 is more likely than 1, based on the lack of non-testing evidence of cheating. Your mileage may vary.