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January 14, 2013 Painting the BlackThe Second Half of Ryan Braun's HOF CareerRyan Braun is a future Hall of Famer. That was the consensus I arrived at after polling a few BP staffers last week. It’s a sensible position. Braun is one of the best players in the game by any measure. His power-speed combination might be the truest in the league. Since 2010, Braun ranks seventh in homers and 15th in steals. No player with more steals than Braun is within 30 home runs, and only Matt Kemp is within 10 tallies in both categories. The Milwaukee outfielder isn’t merely a two-dimensional player, either. His True Average over the past three seasons ranks fourth among batters with 1,000 or more plate appearances (Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Joey Votto sit ahead). Even Braun’s defense, maligned during his early days as a third baseman, is passable nowadays, according to those who watch him the most, like Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker. Moore broke down Braun like this: decent range, iffy routes, and a strong arm, albeit with a slow and deliberate crow hop and accuracy issues. So Braun is a great hitter and an okay defender. Big deal. Those descriptions apply to a few others throughout the league. What makes Braun special is his current pace. Braun is just the 16th player to reach 200 home runs and 100 stolen bases before his age-29 season (he has 202 home runs and 126 steals). The other 15 players are a combination of who’s who in baseball lore and players known for unfortunate burnouts after promising starts: Players with 200-plus Home Runs and 100-plus Steals through Age 28
Jackson, Mays, Mantle, and Robinson are Hall of Famers and Bonds, Griffey, Guerrero, and Sosa might be one day. All but five managed to hit 200 additional home runs from their age-28 seasons until the end of their career. Murphy faded quickly; Cepeda’s knees tormented him throughout his career, limiting him to four seasons as an everyday player after his age-28 season; Strawberry dealt with substance abuse demons; Jones fell out of shape; Sierra got in too good of shape (the added bulk supposedly limited his production). There’s no guarantee Braun avoids those fates—though he has avoided the disabled list to date—but you would probably lean toward him hitting at least 200 more home runs if you had to lean one way or the other. Let’s take this one step further and see what Braun’s company tells us about his home run and stolen base production* as he ages. For an endpoint, let’s select age-37. That happens to be the last possible year of Braun’s contract, so it works as more than a way to curb the survivor bias and sample size issues wont to plague this kind of exercise. *Some will wonder what kind of impact Bonds’ outlier stats have on the projections. The difference with and without Bonds is about three home runs. Huge on a micro level, less so on a macro basis like this.
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Surprise Me!
Failed drug test.
Very articulate
Is it z snarky comment? Yes, but it is true.
As I note below, I think the cloud of suspicion with Braun wont weigh very heavily, but he did fail a drug test, and he did get off on a technicality. Some voters may not like that.
Since when is acquittal on the basis of a lack of credible evidence a "technicality?" The Braun case exposed a serious range of flaws in the MLB drug testing system. In the end, those flaws meant that the evidence presented against him could not form the grounds for a suspension. Please, folks, get this right.
Wasn't it acquittal on the fact that the sample was mishandled? I understood the story to be that his sample was positive for elevated testosterone and it was supposed to be mailed to the lab for confirmation. But the tester sealed it and kept it in his refridgerator. As far as I understood the story, Braun got lucky that the testing agent was an idiot.
Yes and no; those rules aren't arbitrary, they're there to try to prevent corrupting factors from affecting the test. The rules were violated, so corrupting factors couldn't be ruled out (legally, if that makes sense), so the test was thrown out.
As for whether the regfrigerator storage could actually affect it... Will Carroll wrote something about how the Braun team was able to prove that doing so could produce the elevated levels found that were reportedly found, but as far as I know now other journalist picked up on that, and he's, ahem, been wrong before.
I wouldnt say the agent was idiot but the Arbitrator is very very lenient.I would want to know more about him. Other samples were refrigerated over the weekend and funny they didnt grow PEDs.
I find it fascinating that already BP is banging the drum for Braun, and will run interference for his failed drug test, trying to whitewash it down the Memory Hole. There sure seems to be an agenda here. It is almost like there is an Internet Flash Mob ready to storm Cooperstown and demand that the Board of Trustees/BBWAA hand over the keys.
Has BP ever written its Apologia for PED use? I don't read every day but somehow they have come to the conclusion that cheating does not matter maybe they have a good case and I need to be educated.
The stain on Braun's reputation won't go away. Sure, he will have a HOF career, but he's going to have to wait to be inducted. I mean Mike Piazza never failed a test...
the specimen wasn;t really "mishandled". It would have been sitting in an equivalent refrigerator at fedex or the lab had it not been after hours. The courier's fridge was not a real fridge in the Arbitrator's opinion since it was not a certified fridge. This is common sense in America in 2013 and a microcosm of our national problems. I expect politicians to think like this but it is fascinating to see other people pretend not to see what is obvious.
Two things are worth noting here. First, the real story is that we know about the test result. Manny Ramirez went through all of spring training and the start of the season while appealing his suspension and no one heard about it. Melky Cabrera was the MVP of the All-Star Game while appealing his suspension and no one heard about it. Someone in MLBs testing program leaked Braun's test result to the press before the appeals process. No one seems interested in finding out who did it or why. We have no idea how many players have had positive tests and had them overturned through the appeals/arbitration process. Those are the rules as agreed to contractually.
Second, have you ever had a traffic ticket overturned in court because of a "technicality", like the cop not showing up? I know I have and my insurance company didn't make me prove I didn't actually go through the Stop sign, as I was charged with having done. When Ryan Braun and his attorney went to the arbitrator, the first thing they did was try and get the evidence thrown out, based on mishandling and the contractual violation which occurred. The arbitrator agreed and the case was over. Neither you nor I know whether Braun and his attorney had a line of attack on the evidence itself which would have won. Yet there seems to be an assumption of guilt here, even though there is nothing in his body type or his career arc which indicates the use of PEDs. A little fairness would be nice.