January 17, 2013
Resident Fantasy Genius
The Losers Club
While just one notable name was moved in yesterday’s three-team trade—despite the usual flashy nature of these kinds of trades, this one can hardly be called a blockbuster—the trade has created a ripple effect to alter the values of several household names (at least in households that play in deep fantasy leagues).
Mike Morse | Seattle Mariners | OF
While Nationals Park and Safeco Field are both pitcher’s stadiums, Washington’s home field is more hitter-friendly, almost neutral. Additionally, Nationals Park is friendlier towards righties than it is lefties; Safeco runs the opposite way, and to a more extreme degree (and the fences moving in don’t figure to have too large of an impact). That’s not the best news for Morse, although he does have some unique skills that will help mitigate this park shift. First, he has great raw power, which makes park factors less important. Second, he has power to all fields, helping to combat the asymmetry of Safeco. And finally, strangely enough, the majority of his home runs in 2012 actually went to the opposite field, which in Safeco plays moderately close to neutral. Of course, it’s the first time he’s done anything that drastic, so expecting it to continue to such a large degree might not be prudent.
This leaves me guessing as to the perceived value shift. People could see him moving to a new league and a notorious pitcher’s park, throw in the injuries concerns, and be scared to bid him up. Or, they could see it like I do and realize that this isn’t as big a value loss as it looks on the surface. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’ll bat in the middle of a moderately-beefed-up Seattle lineup that includes Kendrys Morales and Jesus Montero. Speaking of Montero…
Seattle Mariners Pitchers
Raul Ibanez | Mariners | OF