December 20, 2012

Resident Fantasy Genius

Fallout from Recent Moves

by Derek Carty

R.A. Dickey | Mets to Blue Jays | SP
I debated an up arrow here, but it’s the rare pitcher moving to the American League that actually deserves one. Dickey, however, won’t be affected by the league change as severely as other pitchers will. As I’ve shown before, knuckleballs eliminate a lot of the differences in hitter quality, so the quality of the American League (and the AL East, in particular) won’t hurt him as much. It will hurt him, though, and the Rogers Centre is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball (though the knuckleball may become more effective in a domed environment). The Blue Jays offer a lot in terms of a supporting cast—they may have one of the best offenses in baseball at this point, and their defense could be above average—but that doesn’t offset the league and park change, even if both effects will be lessened because of his weapon of choice.

Josh Thole | Mets to Blue Jays | C
Thole moves on from a starting gig to a part-time situation, at best. He’ll follow Dickey to Toronto and will surely catch all of the knuckleballer’s games, but he might only get one additional start per week with J.P. Arencibia the incumbent. While the Rogers Centre is generally favorable for hitters, Thole doesn’t hit his flies particularly far, so he probably won’t be able to muster more than a couple extra home runs.

John Buck | Blue Jays to Mets | C
It seemed inevitable that Toronto would clear their backstop glut, and I’d mentioned before that Buck could wind up with quite a bit of value should things break right, but he unfortunately got the short end of the stick. He’ll move to a much less friendly park in New York and figures to either back up d’Arnaud or, at best, keep the plate warm for him for a couple months. He’s merely an endgame NL-only pick now. Fiddle sticks.

J.P. Arencibia | Blue Jays | C
The biggest winner in this trade may actually be a player that wasn’t even involved in it. From the dust of this blockbuster emerges Arencibia, losing both Buck and d’Arnaud as competition and now only having Thole to deal with. He remains a cost-effective power option, especially in AL-only formats.

Travis d’Arnaud | Blue Jays to Mets | C
d’Arnaud is the other winner in this deal, moving out of a crowded catching situation in Toronto and into one where he’s the undisputed catcher of the future. That future could come as soon as April, if he impresses team brass in spring training. If not, we’re still very likely to see him starting, albeit in a pitcher’s park and a below-average lineup, by midseason.

Shin-Soo Choo | Indians to Reds | OF
Choo may see a small drop-off in the speed department in moving from Manny Acta to Dusty Baker, but new Indians skipper Terry Francona’s tendencies are pretty similar to Baker’s, so that seemed inevitable even if he stayed in Cleveland. The biggest impact will come with his power. Choo moves into one of the best parks in baseball for lefty power and should finally find his way back over 20 home runs again, maybe even approaching 25. A .280-20-15 line would have quite a bit of value, especially with Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Bruce, and Ludwick to drive him in.

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