<< Previous Article
Baseball Therapy: Ther... (12/17)
|
<< Previous Column
Transaction Analysis: ... (12/17)
|
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis: ... (12/18)
|
Next Article >>
The Keeper Reaper: Fir... (12/18)
|
December 17, 2012
Transaction Analysis
The Mets Deal Dickey to Toronto? UPDATED
by Ben Lindbergh and Jason Parks
| American League | National League |
Reportedly traded C-R Travis D'Arnaud, RHP Noah Syndergaard, C-R John Buck and OF-R Wuilmer Becerra to the Mets for RHP R.A. Dickey, C-L Josh Thole, and C-R Mike Nickeas. [12/17]
<< Previous Article
Baseball Therapy: Ther... (12/17)
|
<< Previous Column
Transaction Analysis: ... (12/17)
|
Next Column >>
Transaction Analysis: ... (12/18)
|
Next Article >>
The Keeper Reaper: Fir... (12/18)
|
Nobody feels the Blue Jays are overdoing it? They've left no room for a pitching prospect to be promoted to the starting rotation - and they are still rich in that department. Syndergaard might have been that guy. They are now weaker behind the plate - by both having an inferior back-up to Arencibia and by trading away D'Amaud who will soon be, if not already is the better starter - on his way likely to being much better.
Sure, knuckleballers age well, but they often have relapses after their breakout season. That happened to last two highly successful ones: Wakefield and Candiotti. Charlie Hough was an established fine reliever, but struggled during his transition to starter. Phil Niekro - I'm sure the Jays would be very happy with his career (or Candiotti's)- but he did have a few off years including year 3 after his break out season. His brother Joe didn't rely on the knuckleball as much, but was consistently good once he mastered it.
Dickey's breakout season was 2010, just no one noticed. He's been one of the 3-5 best SPs in the National League over the last three years.
Plenty of room for their prospects to come up and contribute in the pen, which is what clubs seem to be doing. And I'm not sure I understand the concern anyhow, would you rather have a crummy pitcher in your rotation just so you can replace him instead of a good one?
As for D'Arnaud, it wasn't more than two years ago when Arencibia had scouting reports just as (or more) glowing. Sure, Dickey is less of a certainty than most pitchers coming of a Cy Young, but the notion that a player with 0 MLB at bats and an injury history is already a league average player is optimistic.
Dan W: OK, but Dickey has certainly kicked it up another echelon going from a 15% K% to 25% - without an increase in walks. His K/BB has gone from just two and a half, which is quite good for a knuckleballer to 4.24, which is probably unprecedented for a knuckleball starter. The best I could find among the Niekro brothers, Hough, Candiotti, or Wakefield was 3.39: Niekro in 1969. Wakefield's career K/BB was/is 1.79. Joe Niekro's was worse. I admit that I am warming up to this deal now - as a Torontonian.
SC & Nathan: Some fair points about the pitchers, although, I still think it would be better for the Jays to improve themselves at secondbase, for example, than to block their young potential starters from reaching the rotation. And Happ isn't crummy.
However, I remain un-budged about the catching situation. J.P. Arencibia snuck into Baseball America's Top 50 (no. 43) after his age 22 break out season in AA. His next season at AAA was a disappointment and he fell out of the Top 100. Travis D'Amaud's defense has always been more highly regarded than Arencibia's and was in the Top 100 after his age 21 season. After his break-out at age 22, he was no. 36, then moved UP to #17 after his continued success in AAA. At the Major League level, J.P. has shown he can hit them out now and then, but his On-Base Average was only .275 down from .282 the year before. His defense is among the worse. It is not unreasonable to expect much more than that from Travis D'Amaud.
Pitchers get hurt.