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December 5, 2012

Transaction Analysis

Nationals Sign Dan Haren

by Sam Miller

WASHINGTON NATIONALS Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

Reportedly signed Dan Haren to a contract for one year, $13 million.

I once asked Dan Haren, early/midway through 2011, if he had lost anything. This was a pretty standard softball that would give him a wide latitude to say "not really" and then go into how he used to be a thrower but now he’s a pitcher and that sort of stuff. But he surprised me and answered with a qualified “yeah.” The problem, he said, is that he couldn’t throw as hard as he used to. He was still very good—this was in 2011—but it wasn’t as easy as it had been when he could throw hard.

Throwing hard is a young man’s game, and while there are a few exceptions, nearly all pitchers lose speed the longer you know who they are. (Correlation equals causation, right? You are to blame!) This loss of velocity can become a very easy and very lazy explanation for any pitcher who struggles. Consider the 10 pitchers who threw the most innings in 2012, with their fastball velocity in 2012 and their highest fastball velocity since 2007: