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November 21, 2012

Punk Hits

Why Tyson Ross Went South

by Ian Miller

The mind is a terrible thing, both to waste, and just in general. So often the brain fails us utterly: things like deja vu, phantom limbs, and confirmation bias make me wonder why I have one at all.

Confirmation bias makes it especially difficult when it comes to evaluating baseball players. Take Tyson Ross (please!). I watched him dominate at UC Berkeley for two seasons. His sophomore year was especially impressive: look past the 6-6 record and you’ll see he put up a 2.49 ERA and a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Dude was GOOD.

Ross has always looked good in a uniform. “Long-levered,” as we called him in the 2012 Annual, doesn’t begin to describe him: His 6’ 6”, 230-pound frame appears to be made up solely of arms and legs. He’s on the lanky side, but put him next to Chris Sale and he looks like Giancarlo Stanton. He’s got all the physical tools to be a prototypical power pitcher.

Going into the 2008 college baseball season, Tyson Ross looked like a no-brainer first-round pick. He had size, velocity, and unimpeachable make-up. He also had an impressive repertoire: low-to-mid 90s fastball, heavy sinker, wipeout slider, and a changeup that was a work in progress. Yeah, his mechanics were a little messy, but that stuff can be smoothed out. (Foreshadowing.)

Instead, it all started to come apart. His K/BB fell to 2:1 and his ERA ballooned accordingly, to 4.25. A strained lat limited him to just 78 innings, compared with 118 the previous year. But which came first, the injury or the ineffectiveness? (This chicken-or-egg question has become a familiar refrain when discussing Tyson Ross.)

As you no doubt know, last week the A’s shipped Tyson Ross and

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11 comments have been left for this article.

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grover

(36275)

Ross is, I believe, out of options. While I think Ross has a chance as a RP Billy Beane is slightly obsessed with rotation depth; assuming Colon is starting than Straily and Werner can shuttle between Oakland and Sacramento as needed. Add Blackley in the bullpen as the long man/spot starter and Beane has 8 SP he can call on who had big league experience in 2012.

The whole group costing less than what KC will pay Ervin Santana this season!

Nov 21, 2012 06:21 AM

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rating: 1

Vicmill1

(67605)

Stick with Spicoli and the Vans against the forehead.

Too much cash is on the line and, I imagine, there are pitchers lining up in the College mill to come and be great without too much time and adjustment. Isn't baseball pretty much a buyer's (teams) market? But I admire your humane streak.

Oh, the humanity!

Nov 21, 2012 07:50 AM

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rating: 0

Ken Arneson

(2371)

Ross' splits give some hope that he can be effective as a reliever. The first time through the order as a starter, his career BABIP against is .289 and his OPS against is .585. Second time through: .354 and .811. Third time through: .432 and 1.137.

Nov 21, 2012 08:04 AM

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rating: 1

surfdent48

(54594)

The problems spelled out for Tyson Ross sound exactly like the problems for Chris Volstad except for the injury issue. The talent is there for both.

Nov 21, 2012 09:00 AM

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rating: 2

matthewverygood

(68319)

I'm surprised the article didn't mention Darren Balsley's history of taking castoffs like Ross and getting quality innings out of them. That, and of course Petco, should help.

Nov 21, 2012 10:01 AM

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rating: 1

Brian Oakchunas

(9790)

I don't see how the A's are selling low. Werner is a lefty with the proven ability to throw strikes, get some K's and pile up ground balls while Ross has the proven ability to do none of these things no matter how good he might look. I guess people are just down on Werner because he got roughed up during his cup of coffee this year.

It seems like the A's fell into an opportunity to discard an ineffective player and pick up a potentially effective one and jumped all over it.

Nov 21, 2012 11:02 AM

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rating: 0

Ian Miller

BP staff

(46294)

"Selling low" doesn't mean the A's didn't get a good return; it simply means that Ross' value has ebbed. He's far less valuable now, for instance, than he was 1 year or 2 years ago.

Nov 21, 2012 11:14 AM

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Brian Oakchunas

(9790)

Right, sorry, but what I mean is your tone suggests that this is not a good trade for the A's. A perhaps better example is "Oakland did well to get anything back at all" which again is not deliberately saying that they didn't make a good trade but makes it sound like Werner is an afterthought.

I know Werner doesn't make scouts go gaga, but a lefty that is better than average in all three of Ks, BBs, and GBs is a pretty unusual thing in the minors or even the majors. There were lots of articles about this trade with the Ross focus, but to me, the discussion should be about how the Pads let that guy go.

Nov 21, 2012 12:16 PM

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Ian Miller

BP staff

(46294)

Gotcha, and that's a fair critique. I didn't actually mean to say that the A's didn't get a fair return, but that sentence certainly implies it. Poor word choice on my part.

I think I'm agnostic on the trade. Ross still has upside, but who knows if he'll ever get there? And I don't know enough about Werner to have an informed opinion.

Nov 21, 2012 12:30 PM

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marctacoma

(58821)

Good piece. I saw him a few years ago in AAA, facing off against M's "prospect" Mauricio Robles. Doug Thorburn would've had a field day that game, if he could keep himself from running onto the field for some impromptu instruction. Ross looked amazing that day, so I've followed him with some interest since then.

I'm with both Doug and Melissa - it's odd that he can't repeat his delivery when it looks so, so simple. He takes a half stride and then just whips his arm across with some insane rotation in his hips/trunk. That he can get to 95mph is pretty remarkable, but I think Melissa's right to say that those mechanics put a ton of strain on his obliques/back/hips. They do all of the work.

Hitters get a long look at the ball, but pitchers without Ross's velocity have succeeded with short strides. The problem is that Ross can't short-arm the ball to add deception, as all of his velocity comes from his whip-like arm. One guy from my youth who was able to make the short-stride thing work is now a pitching coach - Chris Bosio. I wonder what Bosio would do with Ross?

Nov 21, 2012 11:53 AM

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Matt Commins

(63058)

I think Ross' future is a grip and rip it reliever; I could be wrong (and I've been wrong a ton) but I keep waiting for his arm to fall off because he's throwing against his body when his plant food hits

Nov 21, 2012 22:13 PM

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Pebble Hunting: The Th... (11/21)

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