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November 20, 2012

Overthinking It

Why Justin Upton is Always About to Be Traded

by Ben Lindbergh

At this point, it sort of seems as though Justin Upton has always been available, as if he was born on the trading block or at least debuted there before he made the majors. Upton trade rumors are as much an annual offseason ritual as Scott Boras’ binders, debates about Aroldis Chapman’s role, or worries about whether the Marlins are bad for baseball. He hasn’t actually been traded yet, not even once, but we’ve grown used to Upton existing in a perpetual state of about-to-be-dealt.

Difficult as it might be to believe, it’s been less than 2 ½ years since Upton was at the opposite end of the availability spectrum: untouchable. On March 3, 2010, the Diamondbacks signed Upton to a six-year, $51.25 million extension that runs through 2015. Just over three months later, on June 13, Nick Cafardo included this in the notes section of his column for the Boston Globe:

6. Derrick Hall, CEO, Diamondbacks — The boss isn’t happy with the bang for the 80-million-buck payroll, and he’s talking about reevaluating the staff (GM Josh Byrnes, manager A.J. Hinch) and reducing payroll. The only untouchable appears to be outfielder Justin Upton. Otherwise, watch the Diamondbacks at the trading deadline. Ace Dan Haren, center fielder Chris Young, second baseman Kelly Johnson, third baseman Mark Reynolds, pitcher Edwin Jackson, and first baseman Adam LaRoche all could be nice pieces for contenders.

Give Cafardo credit: other than Hall, Upton is the only Diamondback from that note still standing. Everyone else mentioned has been fired, traded, or allowed to leave, including the GM and the manager. But while Upton still hasn’t been touched, he has been checked out, looked over, and leered at by every team in the league.

On July 16th, 2010, a rival GM confirmed Cafardo’s intel, saying, “All their guys except Upton and maybe [Ian] Kennedy are available.” But by November, less than four months later, Bob Nightengale was reporting that Upton was “available” and “under discussion.” Upton’s transition from untouchable to available happened so quickly that it made some teams suspicious.