In A Pickle: Managing ... (11/15)
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November 15, 2012 On the BeatNL Shopping ListsWorkers were putting up the tree at a local restaurant the other day, and it was the first sure sign that it was that time of the year. Then, a few days later, the Marlins lit enough Yule logs to create a fire sale and, sure enough, the Christmas season was officially upon us. With that in mind, let's take a look at the shopping lists of the 15 National League clubs. We'll even look at what the Marlins might be looking for, though if Santa Claus is a true fan of competitive balance, he will put a large lump of coal in owner Jeffrey Loria’s stocking. Braves: They probably won't be able to re-sign Michael Bourn, which will make a center fielder and a leadoff hitter their biggest needs. They also have an opening in left field, as Atlanta plans to shift Martin Prado back to the infield and third base to replace the retired Chipper Jones. The Braves have the starting pitching depth to trade youngsters Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran for a center fielder like the Twins' Denard Span, and they could sign a free agent like Cody Ross to play left. Brewers: The bullpen is the top priority, as they would like to find two set-up relievers to put in front of closer John Axford. Cardinals: They are only looking for stocking stuffers, such as a left-handed reliever and a bench player with some pop. Sean Burnett will fit the lefty bill perfectly as a free agent. Cubs: Even an organization fully committed to youth needs some veteran stopgaps. In this case, a third baseman and center fielder are necessary to buy more developmental time in the minor leagues for Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson. Chicago would also like to add one more starting pitcher and are eyeing free agent Shaun Marcum. Diamondbacks: A long-term shortstop would be nice; Cliff Pennington surely isn't anything more than a stopgap. Upgrading at third base would also help, though Chris Johnson could probably tide Arizona over for 2013. A veteran starting pitcher is also on the list, as the Diamondbacks are currently in line to have two rookies in the rotation when the 2013 season begins. They'd like to do one-stop shopping by trading right fielder Justin Upton to fill all three needs.
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Resident Fantasy Genius: Reviewing Our 10 Bo...
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I read Nate's blog every day. For the past 3 months, all the comments praised his statistical analysis of the election. But when it comes to baseball, those same commenters sound like the talking heads at FOX. It just feels that Cabrera should win the triple crown..... Pretty funny.
Yeah, I don't know why I bothered reading the comments, but I thought maybe some educated minds would have been changed by reading the most succinct explanation of Trout's candidacy for a general audience I've seen yet.
the kneejerk response will probably be to slate this comment but i'd urge viewers to think about it's exact meaning before jumping for the '-' icon.
Mike Trout was statistiacally the most valuble player, but was Mike Trout the most valuble player? Discuss.
My opening gambit. Players aren't commodities or inanimate computer alorithms that can be assessed in a vacuum.
If we all agree that WARP as defined by BP is the ultimate judge of the value of a players contribution during a year there would be no need for people to vote on MVP awards - we'd simply look at a list by clicking on the statistics section at the top of this spreadsheet.
An anecdotal example. Mike Trout has credited Torii Hunter with helping him during he great season. This clearly can't be measured but this contribution adds a (modest) but positive 'value' to Torrii Hunter's value during the year. If Mike Trout was an entity that operated purely in a vacuum he has basically admitted that his value as defined by WARP would probably have been (slightly) lower than it was had Torri Hunter not interacted with him.
This is why we have votes. It's very frustrating that these things can't be measured but we are dealing with human beings not commodities.
If this interaction could be measured a small but non-zero amount of WARP would be transferred from Trout to Hunter - say 0.2 WARP.
There would be hundreds of such transfers between players in a team.
Just because something can't be measured doesn't mean it has no impact - 50 years ago would it have been correct to cmpletely ignore a players defense (other than error %)because it wasn't measured statistically?
The BBWAA writers form an opinion by trying to synthisize all of these factors in the way humans make judgements every day of their life - just making the case why it's not as simple as looking up WARP in a chart.
Of course, this year Trout was clearly better - so much so that he probably still was the MVP, this is more a general point about player valuation.
-2? Oh we'll, you're right don't think, just hit the minus button without commenting.
No, comment, rebut, argue your point. I'll listen, that way we can all learn.
One of the comments said something along the lines, Nate should stick with politics and not bother with baseball! I didn't even bother to reply but geez the world truly seems to have blinders on sometimes.
A much bigger statistical injustice is that Justin Verlander did not win the Cy Young - though there's been much less discussion of this.
Cerlander had a WARP of 4.8. 2nd in the AL is fellow Tiger Max Scherzer with 3.8. Detroit had the 2 best pitchers in the American league and 2 of the top 3 in baseball! statistically.
David Price was 6th in the American league.
The 2nd best pitcher in the AL statistically didn't garner a single Cy Young vote - not one.
No that is appalling!
Fascinating that I've made posts this morning advocating both pro and anti statistical sentiments and the same 'site member' has voted all of them -1 lol