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November 15, 2012

On the Beat

NL Shopping Lists

by John Perrotto

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Workers were putting up the tree at a local restaurant the other day, and it was the first sure sign that it was that time of the year. Then, a few days later, the Marlins lit enough Yule logs to create a fire sale and, sure enough, the Christmas season was officially upon us. With that in mind, let's take a look at the shopping lists of the 15 National League clubs. We'll even look at what the Marlins might be looking for, though if Santa Claus is a true fan of competitive balance, he will put a large lump of coal in owner Jeffrey Loria’s stocking.

Braves: They probably won't be able to re-sign Michael Bourn, which will make a center fielder and a leadoff hitter their biggest needs. They also have an opening in left field, as Atlanta plans to shift Martin Prado back to the infield and third base to replace the retired Chipper Jones. The Braves have the starting pitching depth to trade youngsters Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran for a center fielder like the Twins' Denard Span, and they could sign a free agent like Cody Ross to play left.

Brewers: The bullpen is the top priority, as they would like to find two set-up relievers to put in front of closer John Axford.

Cardinals: They are only looking for stocking stuffers, such as a left-handed reliever and a bench player with some pop. Sean Burnett will fit the lefty bill perfectly as a free agent.

Cubs: Even an organization fully committed to youth needs some veteran stopgaps. In this case, a third baseman and center fielder are necessary to buy more developmental time in the minor leagues for Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson. Chicago would also like to add one more starting pitcher and are eyeing free agent Shaun Marcum.

Diamondbacks: A long-term shortstop would be nice; Cliff Pennington surely isn't anything more than a stopgap. Upgrading at third base would also help, though Chris Johnson could probably tide Arizona over for 2013. A veteran starting pitcher is also on the list, as the Diamondbacks are currently in line to have two rookies in the rotation when the 2013 season begins. They'd like to do one-stop shopping by trading right fielder Justin Upton to fill all three needs.

Dodgers: They celebrated the holidays in July and August in Chavez Ravine by trading for Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett. Yet it wouldn’t be shocking to see free-agent right-hander Zack Greinke under the tree to give the rotation a true No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw, even after winning the posting for Korean hurler Hyan Jin-Ryu.

Giants: They need a left fielder so Gregor Blanco can go back to his true position of fourth outfielder. There will also be a hole to fill in center field if the Giants can't re-sign Angel Pagan as a free agent. Look for the Giants to bring Pagan back and Marco Scutaro, too, to play second base.

Marlins: Trading left-hander Mark Buehrle and right-hander Josh Johnson opened two huge holes in the starting rotation that will almost certainly be filled by cheaper and lower-quality pitchers, and right-hander Ricky Nolasco is also on the trading block. It would also help if someone would drop a third baseman into the Salvation Army kettle for Loria and his operation.

Mets: There is a long wish list but not enough money to adequately fill it because Bernard Madoff was the Grinch who stole many Christmases in Queens. The Mets could use upgrades at catcher, all three outfield positions, and plenty of relief arms to help Frank Francisco and Bobby Parnell. With so many holes to fill, all that R.A. Dickey trade speculation is not so preposterous.

Nationals: All they want for Christmas is for first baseman Adam LaRoche to stay, though they are getting competition on the free-agent market from the Red Sox and Rangers. The Nationals' alternate plan is to sign Bourn, move Bryce Harper from center field to left field, and shift Michael Morse from left to first.

Padres: A good veteran starting pitcher would fit nicely on a talented, young roster. Beyond that, the Padres already have a gift that keeps on giving—great weather 12 months a year.

Phillies: After having their run of five straight NL East titles snapped, the Phillies need a third baseman, center fielder, and set-up man to have realistic hope of returning to the postseason next year. Santa would be really nice if he could take the remainder of Ryan Howard's contract back to the North Pole to free up money to sign Josh Hamilton as a free agent.

Pirates: Adding a No. 3 starter who could pitch 180-200 innings is the top priority, and they need a catcher, too. Adding an outfielder with pop if the price is right is another possibility. The Pirates, as usual, are watching their dollars and looking for a pitcher to fall through the cracks of free agency. The club would also like to sign a free agent like Gerald Laird or Yorvit Torreabla to split time with Michael McKenry behind the plate.

Reds: Their only real wish is to add an outfielder who is a legitimate major-league leadoff hitter, as Drew Stubbs has proven he'll never have the on-base percentage necessary to handle that role. Free agents Angel Pagan and Shane Victorio are possibilities, and the Reds could also trade a young shortstop, either Zack Cozart or prospect Didi Gregorious.

Rockies: They need at least one starting pitcher capable of giving them 200 innings and who won't be scared of calling Coors Field home. Granted, there aren't many of those out there, but the Rockies could entice some team into trading one by offering center fielder Dexter Fowler or right fielder Michael Cuddyer as the bait. Or could the Rockies make it a Christmas to remember by dealing shortstop Troy Tulowitzki for a ton of players?

---

A few minutes with Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw

On winning the Roberto Clemente, awarded annually by Major League Baseball to the player who “best exemplifies the game of baseball, community involvement and individual's contribution to his team”: "It means a lot. I've been fortunate to get to start playing baseball professionally at the big-league level at an early age, and I'm so thankful for that. With that comes a great platform to do stuff off the field. I was just fortunate that I got a great start in LA, and could start doing staff off the field almost immediately. It's blossomed into what my wife Ellen and I have started now, Kershaw's Challenge, and it's just truly a testament to everybody involved, the Dodgers for letting me get up there that fast, and for people letting me create a platform off the field, which is just really special."

On not repeating as the NL Cy Young Award winner: "Last year was awesome. I never expected in my wildest dreams to get recognized as the best pitcher in the league. I just thought if I ever got to pitch in the big leagues then it would be my dream come true. "We didn't make the playoffs, so that makes it tough to say I'm the best pitcher in the league when I couldn't help get my team into the playoffs. Winning the Cy Young was great and I hope I have the opportunity to win another one some year, but my ultimate dream is to win a World Series. That's what I want."

On why the Dodgers finished eight games behind the Giants in the NL West despite making the big in-season trades: "I wish I had the answer to that I had to that one. I can't tell you why it took so long for everyone to start clicking and get on the same page. That's our excuse, and there is nothing we can do about that now. The positive is we played really good baseball the last 12-13 games, and hopefully that will carry over into next season."

On the condition of his right hip, where he had an injury that caused him to miss some starts in the second half of last season: "I've been working out, and it feels great. It's holding up awesome. I'm fortunate for that, and I'm looking forward to getting ready for another season."

---

Front-office types' views:

Marlins: "Like everyone else, I'm not a very big fan of Jeffrey Loria, but I have a hard time, strictly from a baseball standpoint, having a problem with tearing apart a 93-loss team. I don't think they were going to be any better next season, so why not try something different?

Blue Jays: "They realize the Yankees are more vulnerable than they've been in a long time, and I applaud them for going to for going for the American League East title. They definitely have the talent to make a run. The window is open, and they're going to try to climb through it. Good for them."

Tigers outfielder Torii Hunter: "He is a big upgrade on what they have on the outfield corners. You put him at the top of the lineup hitting behind Austin Jackson and in front of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Victor Martinez and you've really got something. I give the Tigers credit. They are going to keep pounding on that door to winning it all until they knock it down."

On David Price and R.A. Dickey winning the Cy Young Awards: "They both had really good years, but neither one was the best pitcher in his league. Price didn't have a better year than Justin Verlander, and Dickey wasn't as good as Gio Gonzalez. Frankly, I was surprised by both choices. I don't think the Baseball Writers' (Association of America) did a very good job."

On why Bob Melvin was the right choice over Buck Showalter for American League Manager of the Year: "Buck did a great job, but at least he had some players. Bob didn't have anything to work with, I mean nothing. He was a magician with that roster, an absolute magician."

---

Nate Silver, who invented Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA player forecasting system before becoming a rock star in political circles, steps away from politics for a moment to explain in his New York Times' blog who he thinks is the right choice for AL MVP in this week's Must Read.

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see John's other articles. You can contact John by clicking here

20 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

saigonsam

I read Nate's blog every day. For the past 3 months, all the comments praised his statistical analysis of the election. But when it comes to baseball, those same commenters sound like the talking heads at FOX. It just feels that Cabrera should win the triple crown..... Pretty funny.

Nov 15, 2012 03:36 AM
rating: -1
 
cdt719

Yeah, I don't know why I bothered reading the comments, but I thought maybe some educated minds would have been changed by reading the most succinct explanation of Trout's candidacy for a general audience I've seen yet.

Nov 15, 2012 13:58 PM
rating: 0
 
andrews

the kneejerk response will probably be to slate this comment but i'd urge viewers to think about it's exact meaning before jumping for the '-' icon.

Mike Trout was statistiacally the most valuble player, but was Mike Trout the most valuble player? Discuss.

Nov 16, 2012 04:02 AM
rating: -3
 
andrews

My opening gambit. Players aren't commodities or inanimate computer alorithms that can be assessed in a vacuum.

If we all agree that WARP as defined by BP is the ultimate judge of the value of a players contribution during a year there would be no need for people to vote on MVP awards - we'd simply look at a list by clicking on the statistics section at the top of this spreadsheet.

An anecdotal example. Mike Trout has credited Torii Hunter with helping him during he great season. This clearly can't be measured but this contribution adds a (modest) but positive 'value' to Torrii Hunter's value during the year. If Mike Trout was an entity that operated purely in a vacuum he has basically admitted that his value as defined by WARP would probably have been (slightly) lower than it was had Torri Hunter not interacted with him.

This is why we have votes. It's very frustrating that these things can't be measured but we are dealing with human beings not commodities.

Nov 16, 2012 04:10 AM
rating: 0
 
andrews

If this interaction could be measured a small but non-zero amount of WARP would be transferred from Trout to Hunter - say 0.2 WARP.

There would be hundreds of such transfers between players in a team.

Just because something can't be measured doesn't mean it has no impact - 50 years ago would it have been correct to cmpletely ignore a players defense (other than error %)because it wasn't measured statistically?

The BBWAA writers form an opinion by trying to synthisize all of these factors in the way humans make judgements every day of their life - just making the case why it's not as simple as looking up WARP in a chart.

Of course, this year Trout was clearly better - so much so that he probably still was the MVP, this is more a general point about player valuation.

Nov 16, 2012 04:18 AM
rating: 0
 
andrews

-2? Oh we'll, you're right don't think, just hit the minus button without commenting.

No, comment, rebut, argue your point. I'll listen, that way we can all learn.

Nov 16, 2012 16:50 PM
rating: -2
 
TucsonTumbleweed

One of the comments said something along the lines, Nate should stick with politics and not bother with baseball! I didn't even bother to reply but geez the world truly seems to have blinders on sometimes.

Nov 19, 2012 10:22 AM
rating: 0
 
andrews

A much bigger statistical injustice is that Justin Verlander did not win the Cy Young - though there's been much less discussion of this.

Cerlander had a WARP of 4.8. 2nd in the AL is fellow Tiger Max Scherzer with 3.8. Detroit had the 2 best pitchers in the American league and 2 of the top 3 in baseball! statistically.

David Price was 6th in the American league.

Nov 16, 2012 04:29 AM
rating: -2
 
andrews

The 2nd best pitcher in the AL statistically didn't garner a single Cy Young vote - not one.

No that is appalling!

Nov 16, 2012 04:36 AM
rating: -3
 
andrews

Fascinating that I've made posts this morning advocating both pro and anti statistical sentiments and the same 'site member' has voted all of them -1 lol

Nov 16, 2012 06:18 AM
rating: -2
 
saigonsam

....win the MVP....

Nov 15, 2012 05:48 AM
rating: -1
 
amazin_mess

Love to know who it was that thought Dickey wasn't as good as Gio. HA! Hi Mike Rizzo!

Nov 15, 2012 08:00 AM
rating: 0
 
SC

People who used advanced metrics?

Nov 15, 2012 09:55 AM
rating: -3
 
amazin_mess

Probably not. Dickey had a better walk rate, was just about even in strikeout rate and had a much better k/bb ratio. And then there's the whole 9 complete games to 3, which even though its not an "advanced metric" is still more impressive. Dickey was better. Gonzalez wasn't even second best, Kershaw was.

Nov 15, 2012 15:10 PM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

My bad....5 complete games to 2.

Nov 15, 2012 15:11 PM
rating: 0
 
NYYanks826

So the wish is for the Phillies to free up money by abandoning Ryan Howard's contract only to take on a different contract that could be even more of an albatross a few years down the road? Especially in a league where they couldn't occasionally DH Hamilton in order to preserve his health a little bit? I don't know...

Nov 15, 2012 09:16 AM
rating: 2
 
mshopoff

I opened this and immediately thought "Why did they skip the Astros?"

And now I'm sad all over again.

Nov 15, 2012 09:26 AM
rating: 7
 
andrews
Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Fuck it, no ones going to comment so what the hell. If you swear in a vacuum does anyone hear you?

MVP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nov 16, 2012 16:44 PM
rating: -4
 
andrews

Verlander should also have won the Cy Young with Sherzer second. When was the last time a team won the MVP and the Cy Young for two consecutive years? Has it ever happened?

Nov 16, 2012 16:47 PM
rating: -2
 
R.A.Wagman

Miguel Cabrera was the most valuable player to member of the press. His story was more valuable for them to write.

Nov 16, 2012 19:44 PM
rating: 2
 
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